Germany set to vote on historic increase in defence spending
What happens today, here in Berlin, will impact the entire future of Europe's defence and its ongoing support for Ukraine.Germany's Parliament, the Bundestag, is voting on whether to take the brakes off defence spending. This could pave the way for a massive uplift in military investment just as Russia makes gains in Ukraine and Washington signals that Europe can no longer rely on US protection."This vote in the Bundestag is absolutely crucial," says Prof Monika Schnitzer, who chairs Germany's Council of Economic Experts.
"After the Munich Security Conference, then the Trump-Zelensky row, Europe got a wake-up call. For the first time Europeans may not be able to rely on Washington. A lot of people had sleepless nights after that.""The outlook for European defence spending hinges on developments in Germany, as the holder of the region's largest defence budget," agrees Dr Fenella McGerty, senior fellow for defence economics at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.Defence spending in Germany rose by 23.2% last year, helping to drive a record 11.7% rise in European defence outlay."The remarkable initiatives announced in Germany are key to enabling further growth," adds Dr McGerty. "Without them, any progress made on strengthening Germany's military capability may have stalled."
Germany's incoming new Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, is in a race against time.The new parliament convenes on 25 March and not everyone is in favour of all this money being spent, especially on defence.Both the far-right AfD party and the far-left Linke have vowed to oppose it. The vote needs two-thirds in favour to go through, so Merz has a better chance of this happening today, under the existing (old) parliament. It then needs to be approved by Germany's upper house.Meanwhile Europe is still coming to terms with the shock of announcements coming from the Trump administration.At last month's Munich Security Conference I watched as delegates sat open-mouthed listening to US Vice-President JD Vance's blistering attack on Europe's policies on migration and free speech. This was preceded days earlier by US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth telling Nato members that America's 80-year-long defensive umbrella for Europe should no longer be taken for granted.Defence strategists in Europe are already planning for the unthinkable: a semi-victorious Russia making gains in Ukraine, then rebuilding its army and threatening Nato's eastern members, such as the Baltic states, within three years or less.This, at a time when the US commitment to Europe's defence is looking extremely shaky. President Trump is being urged by some in his circle to pull US troops out of Europe and even to withdraw from Nato altogether.
Historical caution
There is talk of France extending its national nuclear deterrent to cover other European nations.Meanwhile, most European governments are under pressure to raise defence spending after years of cuts.The British Army has now shrunk to its smallest size since the Napoleonic Wars, over 200 years ago, and experts predict it would run out of ammunition within two weeks of fighting a full-scale conventional war in Europe.
Germany has long been cautious about defence spending, not just for historical reasons dating back to 1945, but also due to the global debt crisis of 2009.Which brings us back to today's crucial vote in the Bundestag. It is not just about defence. One part is about freeing up €500bn (£420bn) for German infrastructure – fixing things like bridges and roads, but also to pay for climate change measures, something the Green Party insisted on.The other part is about removing the restrictions in the constitution on borrowing that could, in theory, free up unlimited billions of euros for defence spending, both for Germany's armed forces and for a pan-European defence fund. On 4 March European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen announced plans for an €800bn defence fund called The ReArm Europe Fund.The proposal being voted on in Berlin is that any spending on defence that amounts to more than 1% of Germany's GDP (national wealth) would no longer be subject to a limit on borrowing. Until now this debt ceiling has been fixed at 0.35 pct of GDP.Other countries will be watching closely to see if this proposal passes. If it does not, then the EU Commission's 'ReArm Europe' project could be off to a shaky start.
The challenge today for Europe's security is a stark one. If the US no longer has its back, or at the very least cannot be relied upon to come to Europe's defence, then what does the continent need to do to fill the gap?Let's start with the numbers. According to the Kiel Institute, which meticulously tracks these things, Europe spends just 0.1% of its wealth on helping to defend Ukraine, while the US has been spending 0.15%. "That means," says the Kiel Institute's Giuseppe Irto, "that if Europe is to make up the shortfall then it needs to double its contribution to 0.21%."
But regardless of what happens today in Berlin this is not just about money.Many of the most sought-after weapons in Ukraine's armoury have come from the US, like Patriot air defence and long-range artillery systems like Himars. The Kiel Institute puts the proportion of Ukraine's rocket artillery at 86% coming from the US, with 82% of its howitzer ammunition also being US-sourced.Then there is the whole question of US intelligence aid for Kyiv, much of it derived from satellites and geospatial imagery. If Washington were to permanently switch that off, then Ukrainian forces risk being partially blinded.If America's nuclear arsenal is taken out of the equation then there is a massive disparity between Russia's 5,000-plus warheads and the combined total of Britain and France's nukes which amount to less than a tenth of that. But that still theoretically leaves enough to act as a nuclear deterrent.
Culture shift
When it comes to "conventional", ie. non-nuclear arms, Western defence chiefs are fond of saying that Nato's combined forces are superior to Russia's. Maybe, but if there is one glaring lesson to come out of the Ukraine war it is that "mass" matters. Russia's army may be of poor quality but President Putin has been able to throw such huge numbers of men, drones, shells and missiles at Ukraine's front lines that the Russians are inexorably advancing, albeit slowly and at huge cost.This should not come as a surprise. Moscow put its economy on to a war footing some time ago. It appointed an economist as its defence minister and retooled many of its factories to churn out vast quantities of munitions, especially explosive-tipped drones.
While many European nations have dragged their feet over raising defence spending much above the Nato-mandated 2% of GDP, Russia's is closer to 7%. Around 40% of Russia's national budget is spent on defence.So Europe has a fair bit of catching up to do if it is to even come close to shoring up its defence and security."If the vote passes then it will be significant for Germany and for Europe," says Ed Arnold, senior research fellow for European security at the Royal United Services Institute think tank."It will set a precedent and allow others to follow... However, three years on from the invasion of Ukraine the case of Germany is a reminder that more money for defence is necessary but not sufficient."Europe needs defence and security leaders who are able to navigate a rapidly deteriorating Euro-Atlantic security environment. Cultural, rather than financial reform, would be most valuable to Europe right now."
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President Trump addressed the nation on Saturday night after a military strike on Iran that he said 'completely and totally obliterated' the country's three major nuclear enrichment facilities. The full remarks from the president are below: Thank you very much. A short time ago, the U.S. military carried out massive, precision strikes on the three key nuclear facilities in the Iranian regime. Fordo, Natanz and Esfahan. Everybody heard those names for years as they built this horribly destructive enterprise. Our objective was the destruction of Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world's number one state sponsor of terror. Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not. Future attacks would be far greater and a lot easier. For 40 years, Iran has been saying. Death to America, death to Israel. They have been killing our people, blowing off their arms, blowing off their legs, with roadside bombs. That was their specialty. We lost over 1,000 people and hundreds of thousands throughout the Middle East, and around the world have died as a direct result of their hate in particular. So many were killed by their general, Qassim Soleimani. I decided a long time ago that I would not let this happen. It will not continue. I want to thank and congratulate Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. We worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before, and we've gone a long way to erasing this horrible threat to Israel. I want to thank the Israeli military for the wonderful job they've done. And most importantly, I want to congratulate the great American patriots who flew those magnificent machines tonight, and all of the United States military on an operation the likes of which the world has not seen in many, many decades. Hopefully, we will no longer need their services in this capacity. I hope that's so. I also want to congratulate the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan 'Razin' Caine, spectacular general, and all of the brilliant military minds involved in this attack. With all of that being said, this cannot continue. There will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran, far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days. Remember, there are many targets left. Tonight's was the most difficult of them all, by far, and perhaps the most lethal. But if peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill. Most of them can be taken out in a matter of minutes. There's no military in the world that could have done what we did tonight. Not even close. There has never been a military that could do what took place just a little while ago. Tomorrow, General Caine, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will have a press conference at 8 a.m. at the Pentagon. And I want to just thank everybody. And, in particular, God. I want to just say, we love you, God, and we love our great military. Protect them. God bless the Middle East. God bless Israel and God bless America. Thank you very much. Thank you.
