Global oil price surge to have dual impact on Malaysia

KUALA LUMPUR: The surge in global oil prices poses a mixed effect on Malaysia's economy, with the local energy-related stocks seeing immediate gains.
The likes of Velesto Energy Bhd, Bumi Armada Bhd, Hibiscus Petroleum Bhd and Dialog Group Bhd saw their shares rising on Friday as oil prices jumped following rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Industry observers, however, said stronger oil prices may drive up fuel and transportation costs, leading to broader inflationary pressures.
Oil prices surged more than nine per cent on Friday to around US$75, their highest in almost five months, after Israel struck Iran.
Brent crude futures jumped US$6.29, or 9.07 per cent, to US$75.65 a barrel by 0315 GMT after hitting an intraday high of US$78.50, the highest since Jan 27.
US West Texas Intermediate crude was up US$6.43, or 9.45 per cent, at US$74.47 a barrel after hitting a high of US$77.62, the loftiest since Jan 21.
Reuters reported that Friday's gains were the largest intraday moves for both contracts since 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, causing energy prices to spike.
Pressure on inflation
Economist Samirul Ariff Othman told Business Times that rising oil prices may drive up fuel and transportation costs.
This will lead to broader inflationary pressures across consumer goods and business operations, particularly in sectors such as manufacturing and palm oil.
At the same time, he said trade and logistics may come under strain due to potential shipping reroutes and rising freight charges.
"Regional equities and currencies often react negatively to spikes. Asia saw stock drops immediately after today's strike.
"However, Malaysia is also an oil and gas (O&G) exporter, so government revenue and energy sector profits will benefit, partially offsetting broader inflation pressures," he said.
Samirul said if the conflict remains contained and no critical energy facilities are targeted, prices may retreat to US$70-US$75 per barrel, maintaining elevated risk premiums but not exceeding historical averages.
However, if tensions escalate or the conflict persists, the situation could trigger a more sustained increase in prices.
"Supply-chain barriers, through both oil and shipping lane disruptions, could keep prices elevated for months, potentially into the US$90 to US$120 range," he added.
Samirul said the intraday surge in oil prices is deeply significant, as it constitutes one of the largest one-day moves in recent years.
"Historically, such spikes have occurred only during major shocks, like the 2022 Ukraine war or 1970s oil-crisis era," he said.
Worst case scenario
Samirul also noted that global analysts at JP Morgan have warned that current oil prices already factor in a seven per cent probability of a worst-case supply disruption scenario, where prices could hit US$120 per barrel.
"Yet if Iran retaliates, striking energy infrastructure or disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, the spike could accelerate and deepen.
"If they don't, prices may ease back toward the low-US$70s, although elevated risk premiums could maintain somewhat higher levels than pre‑shock," he added.
The economist explained that an escalation would likely affect global supply through two primary channels.
The first is actual disruption, where Iran might launch direct attacks on oil tankers or production facilities in the region, with worst-case scenarios putting up to 20 million barrels per day (bpd) at risk.
The second is a precautionary risk premium, where even in the absence of physical damage, heightened fears could lead to the closure of key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.
"The World Bank models a 500,000 to two million bpd loss as 'small disruption' and six-eight million bpd in 'large disruption' scenarios.
"That could drive prices sharply higher up by 20 to 75 per cent and force global supply chains to reroute, adding cost and time," he explained.
Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said the sharp increase in Brent crude prices was mainly driven by Israel's strike on Iran, noting that geopolitical factors typically cause short-term shocks to oil prices.
"After a while it would fade and it will go back to the fundamental aspect of the industries where the demand for oil is expected to trend lower as global growth momentum is expected to moderate based on the recent downward revision by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank," he said.
Afzanizam noted that members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (Opec+) had agreed to increase oil supply during their meeting in May this year, pointing to stable global growth and solid market fundamentals as the basis for the decision.
"On that note, there are no issues on supply of oil and therefore, the sharp spike in crude oil prices are likely to be unsustainable," he said.
He added that the price surge is temporary and primarily driven by geopolitical tensions.
"Fundamentally speaking, the global oil supplies are sufficient and the expected moderation in global growth would demand for oil would remain fairly stable. The price spike looks like a temporary knee-jerk reaction," Afzanizam said.
Hot stocks
On Friday, Bursa Malaysia's Energy Index, which boasts 31 stocks, opened at 735.96 and climbed 2.01 per cent, gaining 14.63 points to end the day at 740.76.
Meanwhile, the benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI fell by 0.56 per cent, shedding 8.51 points to close at 1,518.11.
UOB Kay Hian Wealth Advisors Sdn Bhd head of investment research Mohd Sedek Jantan said markets were in the process of repricing geopolitical risk, with Brent crude potentially surging past US$80 per barrel.
"In the short term, this presents a tactical opportunity for oil and gas sector trades.
"Unlike the relatively short-lived two-week spike observed during the early phase of the Russia-Ukraine war, the duration of the current oil price shock could prove to be longer-lasting," he said.
Sedek added that stocks worth trading on short-term oil price momentum are the stocks that have upstream exposure or increasing mix of upstream concessions vs performing O&G services.
Among the most actively traded stocks, Velesto climbed 2.78 per cent to finish at 18.5 sen, while Bumi Armada edged up 2.08 per cent to 49 sen. Dialog Group advanced 3.97 per cent to RM1.57, and Perdana Petroleum rose 5.56 per cent to 19 sen.
On the top gainers list, Petron Malaysia Refining & Marketing Bhd increased 3.74 per cent to close at RM3.88, while Hibiscus Petroleum surged 7.10 per cent, closing at RM1.66.
Meanwhile, Deleum Bhd gained 6.21 per cent to RM1.54, Yinson Holdings added 1.29 per cent to RM2.36, and Wasco Bhd was up 4.35 per cent to close at 96 sen.

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