Scotland's financial plan must show child poverty funding
The documents set out the Scottish Government's priorities for the next five years, and includes estimates for amounts of tax to be collected, and spending in areas like health, education and local government.
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Ahead of the Holyrood statement, Ms Robinson blamed the 'disappointing' outcome of the UK Government's recent Spending Review and Westminster's welfare reforms for worsening Scotland's financial outlook.
She said the Scottish budget had been short-changed by £1.1 billion in day-to-day funding compared to UK departments.
'This government has delivered a balanced budget every year while taking steps to improve the overall sustainability of our finances.
"This is despite a deeply challenging financial situation caused by rising global instability, persistent higher inflation and over a decade of UK austerity.
'Our disappointing settlement at the recent UK Spending Review has made the situation worse, short-changing the Scottish Government by £1.1bn in our day-to-day funding compared with UK Government departments.
"This comes on top of reductions in our funding worth hundreds of millions of pounds as a result of the UK Government's proposed welfare reforms and failure to fully fund its employer National Insurance increase.
'In this context, it is important that we take action to maximise funding targeted at frontline services such as our NHS.'
Shona Robison will deliver the MTFS on Wednesday (Image: Robert Perry) The MFTS is usually published each May, but this year's was delayed by four weeks due to the timing of the UK Government's multi-year Spending Review, published on June 11.
As a result, MSPs will not be able to scrutinise the document until September, after the summer recess— much to the frustration of Holyrood's Finance and Public Administration Committee.
According to the Scottish Fiscal Commission, the gap between what the Scottish Government spends and what it takes in is expected to grow from £1bn in 2024–25 to almost £2bn by 2027–28.
The Fiscal Sustainability Delivery Plan, due to be published alongside the MTFS, is expected to set out how the government intends to close this gap—though details remain sparse.
Stephen Boyd of the IPPR think tank told The Herald on Sunday that expectations were high for a more detailed and transparent strategy.
'At this stage, and given the month-long delay in publication, it is entirely reasonable to expect that long-standing criticisms will start to be addressed in this MTFS,' he said. "Information presented consistently on a year-to-year basis; more detailed information on spending priorities and future trends; more detailed information on risks and how these will be mitigated.'
Mr Boyd said the strategy must outline how the Scottish Government plans to fund the First Minister's key priorities: tackling child poverty, growing the economy, addressing the climate crisis and improving public services.
'It is difficult to see how significant progress can be made on these priorities, especially the first, without spending more money,' he said.
'The MTFS should begin to set out a longer-term tax strategy, recognising that taxes will likely have to rise.
'The tax strategy published alongside this year's budget included a number of commitments for the remainder of this parliament—for example, that over half of Scottish taxpayers will pay less Income Tax than they do in the rest of the UK.
'The MTFS should begin to set out a longer-term strategy recognising that taxes will likely have to rise to respond to the demands of an ageing society and the climate crisis.'
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Mr Boyd said that despite increases in the block grant announced in the UK autumn budget and the Spending Review, Scotland's public finances 'remain tight'.
'Unless the Cabinet Secretary is prepared to raise taxes, portfolio funding settlements are likely to be tight, especially if—as it's reasonable to expect—health is protected.
'It is reasonable to expect that parts of the public sector—and their workforces—will be disappointed by the MTFS.
'It is entirely possible that a revised approach to pay and workforce will be signalled in the MTFS. Pay settlements have been relatively generous in the devolved public sector over recent years.
'It will be interesting to see how the Cabinet Secretary navigates this politically fraught terrain.
'As the modelling produced by IPPR Scotland and others shows, it is clear that more generous welfare payments are required to make significant progress on the First Minister's main priority of eradicating child poverty.
"Yet, the First Minister recently suggested there will be no further increases in the Scottish child payment.
'The MTFS will provide a clear signal on just how serious the Scottish Government is about meeting this priority.'
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