Beijing official overseeing Hong Kong warns of persisting national security threats

HONG KONG — A top Beijing official overseeing Hong Kong affairs on Saturday warned of persisting threats in the city as a China-imposed national security law approaches its fifth anniversary, while seeking to allay concerns about the law's impact on the financial hub's openness.
Speaking at a forum about the law, attended also by the city leader John Lee and other officials. Xia Baolong, the director of China's Hong Kong and Macao Work Office, said various forms of soft resistance continue to emerge in new forms and external forces have never ceased their intervention in Hong Kong.

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Yahoo

an hour ago

• Yahoo

Here's what a post-Ayatollah Iran could look like if war with Israel leads to regime's fall

As the Iranian regime reels from sustained Israeli strikes on military and nuclear infrastructure, debate is intensifying over what could come next. Experts say the end of the Islamic Republic is no longer unthinkable — but warn that what replaces it could either lift the country toward a freer future or plunge it into instability. Reza Pahlavi, the exiled crown prince of Iran and a prominent opposition figure, posted yesterday, "Sources inside Iran say that the regime's command and control structures are collapsing at a rapid pace. Meanwhile, the international community is beginning to realize that the Islamic Republic has no future. Our discussions about a post-Islamic Republic Iran have begun." "The first thing is revolution is too broad a word," said Behnam Taleblu, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "The better words are evolution and devolution, meaning if you get something better or something worse. Because this is the Middle East, and fundamentally, things can get worse, not better, when you introduce an exogenous shock." Trump To Make Iran Decision 'Within The Next Two Weeks' Given 'Chance' Of Negotiations, Leavitt Says Taleblu cautioned that both the Iranian opposition and Western governments have failed to prepare for regime collapse because of a long-standing reluctance to engage with the idea of regime change. "By not being able to articulate the necessary political strategy... we are most unprepared," he said. Read On The Fox News App Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, sees four scenarios emerging from the current moment — one of which, he warns, is far worse than the others. "The Iranian people are currently leaderless, low-energy, and disillusioned since the women's protests," Sveti told Fox News Digital. "One scenario is collapse from within, similar to the Soviet Union. A brigade commander inside the Revolutionary Guards, supported by a circle of loyalists, could decide to rebel from within the regime." Sabti said that after Israel eliminated many Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) generals, Iran's regular army may now be better positioned to rise. "It might even align with disillusioned elements of the revolutionary guards," he said. "Because they know the system and its bureaucracy, insiders could quietly organize something from within. There would be casualties, but it could unfold as a relatively quiet historical event." Taleblu supports the idea that a regime transition could emerge from within, but notes that Iran has spent decades "coup-proofing." "It has promoted more based on zeal than capability. So it's less likely that you could have a classic military coup d'état emerge," he said. "That doesn't mean it can't happen, but it would take a significant amount of politicking and maneuvering." Israel's 'Resounding' Military Campaign Against Iran Could Be Historic Turning Point, Experts Say The second scenario Sabti outlined is a popular uprising sparked by the release of political prisoners. "There are many political leaders in Iranian prisons," he said. "If some are freed, they could rally the public. They were once part of the regime but tried to shift course and now support relations with the U.S. It would still be a very cold peace with Israel—but not hostile." Taleblu noted that Iranian society has already undergone a significant shift over the past decade. "Large swaths of the Iranian population—80% is probably a minimum number—hate this regime," he said. "The protests since 2017, especially 'Women, Life, Freedom,' were triggered not just by politics, but by economic, social, even environmental issues." A third possibility, Sabti said, is the return of exiled leaders. "There's deep romantic nostalgia toward the monarchy," he said. "Maybe in a later phase, if infighting breaks out, people might rally around a symbolic figure—'Come back and be a symbol.' That could strengthen the revolution." Taleblu acknowledged that figures like Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi could play a role, but not as rulers. "Think of the diaspora as a bridgehead into a new Iran—not the definers of the new Iran," he said. "The people inside Iran should be the ones shaping the next Iran." The fourth — and worst — scenario, according to Sabti, is that the regime survives. "That's the worst option," he said bluntly. Everything You Need To Know About Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader Of Iran Taleblu agreed, warning that survival would bring an even more repressive future. "If the Islamic Republic survives, it will survive in a more radical fashion—more military, less clergy," he said. "There's debate: does it become like Turkey or Pakistan, or does it become even more messianic? The older IRGC are corrupt; the younger ones are messianic." One of the most contentious questions looming over all these scenarios is the future role of Iran's non-Persian communities, including the Ahwazi, Baloch, Azeris, and Kurds. Aref Al-Kaabi, executive president of the State of Ahwaz, told Fox News Digital in a written statement that without trust-building between these communities and the Persian opposition, change will remain elusive. "In my opinion, regime change in Iran is possible if the following conditions are met: continued Israeli strikes... support for non-Persian components... international will... and bridges of trust between Arabs, Kurds, Baloch, Azeris, and the Persian opposition," Al-Kaabi said. "If these conditions are met, I believe the regime's fall will only be a matter of days." He said that in recent days, the IRGC launched widespread arrests in Ahwaz to prevent mobilization. "Most of those arrested are Arabs from Abadan, Bushehr, Sheyban, and Shoaibiya," he said. Al-Kaabi also criticized the Persian opposition abroad. "They view us—Arabs, Kurds, Azeris, Baloch—as separatists and refuse to work with us. That stubbornness is one of the main reasons the regime is still in power." Taleblu warned against Western attempts to divide the country. "The way to unite the Iranian population is not to talk about balkanization," he said. "That would be an own goal of moral and strategic proportions."Original article source: Here's what a post-Ayatollah Iran could look like if war with Israel leads to regime's fall

Forbes

2 hours ago

• Forbes

Israel-Iran Updates: Israel Kills Iranian Special Forces Leaders (Live Updates)

June 20, 8:11 a.m. ET Iran state broadcaster IRIB, citing the country's health ministry, reports over 400 people are dead and more than 3,000 are wounded following Israeli strikes, claiming the majority of deaths so far are civilians. June 20, 7:40 a.m. ET Iran's foreign minister said U.S. involvement, which President Donald Trump will soon decide on, would be 'very dangerous for everybody,' according to CNN, adding negotiations with the U.S. are not possible while Israel continues its attacks. June 20, 3:20 a.m. ET Israeli Defense Forces said it killed Quds Force commander Behnam Shahriyari in an airstrike and also claimed it killed Saeed Izadi, another commander of the Quds Force, which is an arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in charge of conducting operations outside Iran. June 20, 3:16 p.m. ET French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters Iran should not have nuclear enrichment programs, going a step further from his initial stance that the country should not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons (enrichment can be used for nuclear power in addition to weapons). June 20, 2 p.m. ET No progress was made during talks between Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, and his counterparts from the U.K., France and Germany, with British foreign secretary David Lammy saying, 'We are keen to continue ongoing discussions and negotiations with Iran, and we urge Iran to continue their talks with the United States,' as President Donald Trump will decide whether to strike or negotiate with Iran within two weeks. Top European officials joined the U.S. in seeking an end to Iran's uranium-enrichment program and tried to focus talks on ways to 'achieve a lasting rollback of Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programme,' according to French foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot. June 20, 11:56 a.m. ET IDF Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir said Israel is ready for "a prolonged campaign" against Iran, according to NBC News. June 20, 2 a.m. ET Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz warned Hezbollah's leadership to stay away from its conflict with Iran, saying 'The Hezbollah Secretary General has not learned from his predecessors and is threatening to act against Israel under orders from the Iranian dictator.' On Thursday, the leader of the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Naim Qassem said he will offer 'all forms of support' to Iran in the conflict and claimed that uranium enrichment was meant for 'peaceful purposes.' Katz wrote, 'I suggest to the Lebanese proxy to be careful and understand that Israel has lost patience with terrorists who threaten there is terrorism, there will be no Hezbollah.' 2 a.m. ET The Israeli military claimed it struck 'dozens of military targets in Iran' on Thursday night including, 'several industrial sites used to manufacture the Tehran area.' The IDF said it also struck the headquarters of the SPND, Iranian main defense research organization, and said: 'This building was used for the development of advanced technologies and weapons supporting the Iranian regime's military capabilities.' 12:30 a.m. ET Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov warned against pushing for a regime change in Iran and said Russia would react 'very negatively' if the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, in an interview with Sky News. On the issue of potential direct U.S. involvement in the conflict, Peskov said an 'enlargement' of the conflict 'is potentially even more dangerous,' as it could lead to escalation of tensions in the region. Russia, which has close ties with Iran, has so far not been drawn into the conflict and Peskov refused to comment on whether Moscow would take any action in the event Khamenei was killed. June 19, 3:06 p.m. ET Netanyahu told Israeli news outlet Kan that Israel will strike 'all' of Iran's nuclear facilities and said it can carry out the attacks without help from the U.S., according to The New York Times, though the Israeli prime minister noted the U.S. is helping with air defense, saying, 'American pilots are intercepting drones alongside our pilots.' It was widely reported prior to Netanyahu's comment the U.S. was supporting Israel in a defensive capacity, providing support through American air defense systems and naval destroyers as far back as October, when Iran launched ballistic missiles against Israel, though this was the most specific information so far released. June 19, 1:35 p.m. ET Leavitt provided a statement on behalf of Trump to reporters, saying there is a 'substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran' soon and the president will make his decision 'on whether or not to go within the next two weeks.' Leavitt also said Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, is still in contact with Iranian officials. June 19, 12:16 p.m. ET Iran issued a warning to any 'third party' involvement in its conflict with Israel, seemingly referencing the U.S. without directly mentioning it and threatening an 'immediate response,' according to CNN. June 19, 6:45 a.m. ET Tom Barrack, the U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and Special Envoy for Syria, warned the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah against joining the Israel-Iran conflict. Hezbollah has criticized Israel's strikes on Iran and on Thursday it warned that the assassination threats against Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei 'are foolish and reckless, and will have disastrous consequences.' Barrack, who is on an official visit to Beirut, addressed the militant group's threat, saying: 'I can say on behalf of President Trump, which he has been very clear in expressing as has Special Envoy Witkoff: that would be a very, very, very bad decision.' June 19, 4 a.m. ET Iranian state media claimed the main target of the missile attack which damaged a hospital in southern Israel was the 'vast command and intelligence base' of the Israeli military's C4i tech and communications unit and 'the campus of their military intelligence, located in the Gav-Yam technology park.' The hospital which was struck appears to be located less than two miles away from the Gav-Yam technology park. 3:30 a.m. ET Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz said he and Netanyahu have ordered the country's military to 'intensify strikes against strategic targets' in Iran after the latest wave of missile attacks. Katz accused the Iranian Supreme Leader of committing the 'gravest of war crimes' and said 'The cowardly Iranian dictator sits in the depths of the fortified bunker and fires aimed shots at hospitals and residential buildings in Israel.' 3 a.m. ET The Soroka Medical Center, a hospital in the southern Israeli city of Be'er Sheva was struck by an Iranian missile which caused 'extensive damage' but no serious injuries, according to authorities in Israel. The strike was the first time a hospital in Israel was struck by an Iranian missile since the conflict between the two countries began last week. Overall 65 people were injured across Israel in the latest barrage of missile strikes launched by Iran. June 18, 4:48 p.m. ET The State Department is conducting the evacuations of nonessential diplomats, the Associated Press reported, noting diplomats were authorized to leave at the government's expense Wednesday (Forbes has reached out to the State Department for comment). June 18, 2:45 p.m. ET Some embassy personnel were evacuated from Israel via U.S. military aircraft, according to CNN, which reported earlier Wednesday a full evacuation of the embassy was not ordered and diplomats and family members were not required to leave. June 18, 10:39 a.m. ET The Iranian Mission to the U.N. said 'no Iranian official has ever asked to grovel at the gates of the White House,' in a post on X responding to Trump's claim made minutes earlier that Iran had contacted his administration, writing 'the only thing more despicable than his lies is his cowardly threat to 'take out' Iran's Supreme Leader.' June 18, 10:15 a.m. Trump said 'You don't seriously think I'm going to answer that question . . . I may do it, I may not do it, I mean nobody knows what I'm going to do,' when asked by a reporter at an unrelated White House event if the U.S. is moving closer to striking Iranian nuclear facilities. Trump said the Iranians have reached out to him and he told them 'it's very late to be talking . . . there's a big difference between now and a week ago,' referring to Iran's refusal to accept a deal with the U.S. to prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon sooner. In subsequent comments, Trump said 'we're not looking for a long-term war . . . I only want one thing: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon,' while also elaborating on what he meant when he called for 'unconditional surrender' a day earlier: 'That means I've had it . . . I give up, no more. Then we go blow up all the nuclear stuff that's all over the place there.' June 18, 7 a.m. According to a statement delivered via Iranian state media, the Supreme Leader said his country 'stands firm against an imposed war, just as it will stand firm against an imposed peace,' adding that Iran will 'not surrender to anyone in the face of imposition,' warning any U.S. involvement in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict will undoubtedly lead to 'serious irreparable harm.' The Iranian leader also addressed President Trump's comments on Tuesday calling for Iran's 'unconditional surrender,' saying those who know his country's history 'know that Iranians do not answer well to the language of threats.' June 18, 3 a.m. Aerial attacks from both sides continued early on Wednesday as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office claimed Iran has launched more than 400 missiles and hundreds of drones since Friday. June 17, 6:30 p.m. White House officials told multiple outlets Trump spoke with Netanyahu on Tuesday after a meeting with national security advisors, though the details of the conversation have not been publicly reported. June 17, 6 p.m. Unnamed U.S. officials cited by Axios said Trump was seriously considering entering the conflict by launching strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities. June 17, 12:19 p.m. Trump warned on Truth Social earlier Tuesday: 'We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding,' referring to Khamenei, who is increasingly isolated after Israel assassinated several of his top generals, adding Khamenei is 'safe' and 'we are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now,' but said 'our patience is wearing thin.' Tensions between Iran and Israel first erupted on Friday, when the Israel military carried out unilateral strikes against key nuclear facilities and killed several top Iranian generals and nuclear scientists. Netanyahu claimed Israel's attack was an act of self defense as the Iranian nuclear program posed 'a danger to Israel's very survival.' On Monday, Trump exited the G7 summit earlier than scheduled and flew back from Canada to Washington as tensions between Iran and Israel escalated, with the White House press secretary saying he left early 'because of what's going on in the Middle East.' Shortly before leaving the summit, Trump issued an ominous warning to residents of Tehran, Iran's capital, on Truth Social: 'Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON…Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!' At the time, Trump did not specify why he called for an evacuation of the city of 10 million people, but when asked later, Trump said: 'I want people to be safe…That's always possible something could happen. I just want people to be safe.' The president spoke to reporters on board Air Force One on his return to Washington and said he wanted something better than a ceasefire 'An end. A real end, not a ceasefire, an end,' and signaled that a only complete 'give up' by Iran would be acceptable. In a earlier post Trump, said: 'We now have complete and total control of the skies over had good sky trackers and other defensive equipment, and plenty of it, but it doesn't compare to American made, conceived, and manufactured stuff. Nobody does it better than the good ol' USA.' In a third post Tuesday morning, Trump called for an 'UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!' Trump has also warned Iran against targeting U.S. personnel or assets, saying if that happens 'we'll come down so hard, it'd be gloves off...I think they know not to touch our troops.' On Monday, Trump told reporters onboard Air Force One on the way back to the U.S. from the summit in Canada he wanted to see an end to Iran's nuclear program and said he's 'not too much in the mood to negotiate now.' Trump attacked French President Emmanuel Macron on Truth Social, describing him as 'publicity seeking' after he said Trump was flying out of the G7 summit early to work out a cease fire between Israel and Iran and 'then kick-start broader discussions.' Trump said Macron 'has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire,' and claimed it was something 'Much bigger than that.' Trump departed the G7 Summit early and returned to Washington on Monday night to 'attend to many important matters,' White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said. Shortly before he left Canada, the president told reporters Iran 'want to make a deal, and as soon as I leave here, we're going to be doing something. But I have to leave here.' Fox News reported on Monday evening that Trump had asked his national security to be present in the Situation Room when he returns to the White House. A U.S. official told reporters earlier on Monday Trump would not sign a draft statement of G7 leaders, which included a call for de-escalating the Israel-Iran conflict. The president eventually agreed to sign it after some changes were made to the statement's 'initial draft language,' according to the New York Times. The final statement notes: 'We, the leaders of the G7, reiterate our commitment to peace and stability in the Middle East.' The statement affirms Israel's 'right to defend itself,' describes Iran as the 'principal source of regional instability and terror,' and notes 'Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.' It also calls for a resolution of the ongoing crisis and 'a broader de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a cease fire in Gaza.' In a post on X, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi signaled he was open to talks resuming talks with the U.S. if Israel's strikes on Iran were halted. 'If President Trump is genuine about diplomacy and interested in stopping this war, next steps are consequential. Israel must halt its aggression, and absent a total cessation of military aggression against us, our responses will continue. It takes one phone call from Washington to muzzle someone like Netanyahu. That may pave the way for a return to diplomacy,' he wrote. The post also attacked Netanyahu, calling him a 'war criminal.'

Yahoo

4 hours ago

• Yahoo

‘I just want finality': GOP greets newest TikTok extension with resignation

President Donald Trump's latest move to keep TikTok alive is yet again frustrating congressional Republicans, many of whom object to China's continued involvement in the popular app but just want to be done with the whole drama. 'Not my favorite thing,' Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), along-time proponent of the ban, deadpanned, when asked about the president's plan to issue another extension. He spoke a day before the White House confirmed Trump signed a 90-day suspension of enforcement of the law requiring TikTok to divest from ByteDance, its China-based parent company, throwing another lifeline to the short-form video app. By Friday, some House lawmakers registered a note of resigned irritation. The extension — Trump's third since the law went into effect on Jan. 19 — is a unilateral decision not envisioned in the bipartisan law passed by Congress and upheld last year by the Supreme Court. Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Ill.), a member of the House Intelligence and China committees, told POLITICO. 'The national security concerns and vulnerabilities are still there, and they have not gone away. I would argue they've almost become more enhanced in many ways." But Trump's extension of the TikTok law largely boxed out Republicans in both chambers who have shown little inclination — beyond stern words — to prevent him from making these postponements almost routine. Many GOP lawmakers saw themselves as granting the president space to cut a promised deal while the White House deals with urgent priorities, like trade negotiations and the Israel-Iran conflict. 'In light of everything going on, I think he did the right thing,' Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), a China hawk who voted for the ban, told POLITICO of Trump. 'I have concerns about all kinds of things — that [the extension] is on the list — but it's not at the top of the list.' Though Trump has promised his TikTok negotiations areclosely tied to trade talks with China, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testified last week to a Senate panel that TikTok's sale wasnot currently a part of the negotiations with China, raising a further potential obstacle to Trump inking a deal in the near future. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a close ally of the president and longtime national-security hawk said earlier in the week: 'The sooner we get that issue solved, the better,' without offering any ideas for further enforcement. 'I just want finality,' Senate Judiciary Chair Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) told POLITICO. 'I want some certainty and just know that the Congress isn't being played when we make a decision [that the app] be sold.' Another member of the House China Committee, Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Iowa), told POLITICO, 'No more extensions. It's time to follow through.' Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.), also a member of the China panel, noted in a post on X Thursday the law only allows one extension of the compliance deadline, adding, 'I was proud to support the ban of TikTok and believe the law should be implemented as written.' With their comments, the lawmakers echoed House China Chair John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), who in early June called for the U.S. to 'let [TikTok] go dark' to bring China to the table to negotiate. He reiterated that stance on Friday. 'Delays only embolden the Chinese Communist Party,' Moolenaar said in a statement to POLITICO. 'I urge the administration to enforce the law as written and protect the American people from this growing national security threat." Still, observers say Republicans are not exercising their leverage to demand the White House enforce the law they helped write, for example by withholding funding or congressional oversight hearings. "I keep reading that Republicans are 'frustrated' and 'impatient' about their TikTok law being ignored, but they should stop complaining to reporters and take it up with Trump,' said Adam Kovacevich, founder and CEO of the pro-tech Chamber of Progress. Among the Republicans being undercut by the president is his own secretary of state. Marco Rubio — who as senator was one of the loudest critics of TikTok's ties to China, and a huge backer of the app's ban — has been conspicuously silent as Trump has repeatedly granted more time to strike a deal for its sale. 'You have to decide what's more important, our national security and the threat that it poses to our national security,' Rubio told POLITICO in March 2023, as Congress was considering a ban. 'You have to weigh that against what you might think the electoral consequences of it are. For me, it's an easy balancing act. I mean, there is no balance. I'm always going to be for our national security.' A spokesperson for Rubio at the State Department did not respond to a request for comment. Democrats — even those who support keeping TikTok online — say Trump's approach is the wrong one. 'These endless extensions are not only illegal, but they also put TikTok's fate in the hands of risk-averse corporate shareholders,' Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) told POLITICO in a statement. 'This is deeply unfair to TikTok's creators and users. I'm prepared to work towards a solution, but Trump isn't coming to the table.'