OPINION: After a 7-year battle, France might be about to compromise on pension age

Something strange is happening in the malevolently paralysed world of French politics. A sensible compromise might emerge on pensions.
After seven years of denial, hyperbole and anger, President Emmanuel Macron's efforts to reform the state pension system could finally be removed from the national conversation. Or rather from the national argument.
The employer-union 'conclave' on pensions invented by the Prime Minister, François Bayrou in February, was due to end on Tuesday. The talks have been extended until Monday. There is a possibility – not yet a certainty – that they will reach a conclusion.
The conclave was asked to look again at the increase in the official retirement age from 62 to 64 imposed by President Macron two years ago. Two of the more radical trades union federations walked out almost immediately. They insisted on a return to an official pension age of 62 (even though other EU countries are moving towards 66 or 67).
Advertisement
Three more moderate (ie sensible) union federations remained. They have agreed reluctantly to accept the official age of 64 in return for concessions by employers on early retirement for workers in tough jobs and better pensions for women with careers interrupted by motherhood.
The details are still causing a problem. There is also an unresolved argument about how to keep the state pension system solvent. The unions want employers to pay more; the employers want pensions to be frozen for a year.
All the same, this is a significant moment. For three years, Left and Far Right and all trades unions have declared any increase in the retirement age to be an act of supreme wickedness. Over 70 percent of the French population agreed with them. There were huge demonstrations. Innocent bus-shelters were smashed.
Advertisement
The pensions row was one of the principal reasons why Macron failed to win an overall parliamentary majority in 2022. It was one of the main reasons why his reckless decision to call a snap election a year ago further reduced his strength in parliament and left France with minority, unstable governments to confront deepening state budget deficits and an increasingly threatening world.
Now the largest trade union federation, the Confédération Française Démocratique de Travail (CFDT) and two smaller ones the CFTC and CGC, have agreed in principle that 64 should be France's official retirement age. This opens up the possibility – not the certainty – that the pensions row can fade away until the demographic logic of an ageing population raises the need to move to 66 or 67 in a few years' time.
All could still blow up in the government's face. The pensions conclave was invented by Prime Minister Bayrou as a way of buying the abstention of the Socialists in a censure vote on his 2025 budget in February. It was one of the concessions he made to escape the fate which befell Michel Barnier two months earlier.
The Socialists hoped, or pretended that they hoped, that the conclave would propose a return to 62 – or at least 63 – as the official retirement age. They won a promise from Bayrou that any changes proposed by the union-bosses talks, or even changes not quite agreed, would be presented to parliament in a draft law.
There is an obvious danger that a bill of this kind will be amended by the anti-government Left and Far Right majority in the National Assembly to impose a return to an official pension age of 62 (and damn the fiscal consequences). Left and Far Right could argue that they were merely repairing the alleged crime against democracy of Macron's decision to use emergency, constitutional powers to impose the pension reform in March 2023.
If Bayrou tries to slide out of his promise, he could face a censure motion and the collapse of his minority Centre and Centre-right government late this month or in the first few days of July. Anyone for ANOTHER parliamentary election?
Advertisement
More likely, Bayrou will delay pensions legislation until the Autumn when his government faces censure on his 2026 deficit-cutting budget in any case. Both the Socialists and the Far Right will then face a dilemma. Will they join the harder Left in bringing down another government? If so, will it be on pensions or the budget?
I suspect the Far Right WILL censure the government this Autumn. So will the hard Left. The Socialists remain split between their would-be radical and would-be constructive camps despite the re-election last week of the non-constructive Olivier Faure as first secretary. A significant chunk of the 66 Socialists might be enough to deliver the 289 out of 577 votes required to bring down a government.
In any case, I expect that the Autumn censure crunch will come on the budget, not pensions. It will be difficult for Marine Le Pen and the Socialists to justify wrecking a pensions deal approved by the employers and moderate unions.
Bayrou's pensions conclave was mocked by many including me. If a deal is reached on Monday (still a biggish IF), it will have achieved something significant.
It will have taken the absurdly exaggerated poison of pensions reform out of French politics until… the next time the retirement age needs to be increased, probably circa 2030.

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

Euronews

2 hours ago

• Euronews

Meeting between top EU diplomats and Iran's FM yields hope of talks

A meeting between top European diplomats and Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, on Friday yielded hopes of further talks but no indication of any immediate or concrete breakthrough, a week after Israel attacked Iran over Tehran's nuclear program, erupting into war between both sides. Foreign ministers from Britain, France, and Germany and the European Union's foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, emerged from the talks at a Geneva hotel nearly four hours after Iran's Araghchi arrived for the meeting. It was the first face-to-face meeting between Western and Iranian officials since the start of the conflict. In a joint written statement issued after the talks ended, the three European nations and the EU said that they 'discussed avenues towards a negotiated solution to Iran's nuclear programme.' They reiterated their concerns about the 'expansion' of the nuclear program, adding that it has 'no credible civilian purpose.' EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said, 'We agreed that we will discuss nuclear but also broader issues that we have and keep the discussions open." 'The good result today is that we leave the room with the impression that the Iranian side is fundamentally ready to continue talking about all important issues,' German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said, adding both sides had held 'very serious talks.' While France's Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot told reporters, military operations can slow Iran's nuclear program, but in no way can they eliminate it. 'We know well—after having seen what happened in Afghanistan, in Iraq, and in Libya—how illusory and dangerous it is to want to impose regime change from outside.' Barrot also said that European nations 'invited the Iranian minister to envisage negotiations with all parties, including the United States, and without waiting for the end of the strikes." However promising, Iran ruled out new nuclear talks until attacks from Israel stop. According to Araghchi, Iran was ready to consider diplomacy only if Israel's "aggression is stopped." "I make it crystal clear that Iran's defence capabilities are non-negotiable," the Iranian foreign minister stressed after the Geneva talks. He expressed support for 'a continuation of discussions with the E3 and the EU and expressed his readiness to meet again in the near future.' He also denounced Israel's attacks against nuclear facilities in Iran and expressed 'grave concern' about what he called 'non-condemnation' by European nations. For his part, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy urged Tehran to continue its talks with the United States. Lammy said, 'We are keen to continue ongoing discussions and negotiations with Iran, and we urge Iran to continue their talks with the United States.' He added that 'we were clear: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.' He added there is 'a window of within two weeks where we can see a diplomatic solution' and urged Iran 'to take that off-ramp.' Trump delays decision Meanwhile, it remains unclear how that will happen as US President Donald Trump continues to weigh whether to attack Iran by striking its well-defended Fordo uranium enrichment facility, which is buried under a mountain and widely considered to be out of reach of all but America's 'bunker-buster' bombs. Trump said on Wednesday that he'll decide within two weeks whether the US military will get directly involved in the war, given the 'substantial chance' for renewed negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program. Israel says it launched its airstrike campaign to stop Iran from getting closer to being able to build a nuclear weapon. Iran and the United States had been negotiating over the possibility of a new diplomatic deal over Tehran's programme, though Trump has said Israel's campaign came after a 60-day window he set for the talks. 'We are entitled … to defend our territorial integrity' - Iran In light of the possibility of US involvement, Iran's supreme leader rejected Trump's calls for surrender Wednesday and warned that any military involvement by the Americans would cause 'irreparable damage to them.' Just before meeting the European diplomats on Friday, Foreign Minister Araghchi made a brief appearance before the U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva, telling the council that Israel's 'attacks on nuclear facilities are grave war crimes'. Araghchi insisted that Iran is "entitled … and determined to defend our territorial integrity, national sovereignty, and security with all force.' Tehran has long insisted its nuclear programme is peaceful, though it was the only non-nuclear-armed state to enrich uranium up to 60%, a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%. The initial 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and the world powers was negotiated in large part by the three European nations. However, Iran has been found wanting in its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, leading to warnings by the EU states to reimpose sanctions that were suspended under the agreement.

France 24

5 hours ago

• France 24

Trump says two weeks is 'maximum' for Iran decision

Trump added that Iran "doesn't want to talk to Europe," dismissing the chance of success in talks between European powers and Iran in Geneva on resolving the conflict between Israel and Iran. Trump also played down the possibility of asking Israel to halt its attacks, after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran would not resume talks with the United States until Israel relented. "I'm giving them a period of time, and I would say two weeks would be the maximum," Trump told reporters when asked if he could decide to strike Iran before that. He added that the aim was to "see whether or not people come to their senses." Trump had said in a statement on Thursday that he would "make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks" because there was a "substantial chance of negotiations" with Iran. Those comments had been widely seen as opening a two-week window for negotiations to end the war between Israel and Iran, with the European powers rushing to talks with Tehran. But his latest remarks indicated that Trump could still make his decision before that if he feels that there has been no progress towards dismantling Iran's nuclear program. Trump dismissed the chances of Europe making a difference, saying the talks between Britain, France, Germany and EU diplomats and Tehran's foreign minister "didn't help." "Iran doesn't want to speak to Europe. They want to speak to us. Europe is not going to be able to help in this," Trump told reporters as he arrived in Morristown, New Jersey. Asked if he would ask Israel to stop its attacks as Iran had asked, Trump said it was "very hard to make that request right now." "If somebody's winning, it's a little bit harder to do than if somebody's losing, but we're ready, willing and able, and we've been speaking to Iran, and we'll see what happens."

Local France

5 hours ago

• Local France

Big-name porn sites back online in France after age check row

France has gradually introduced requirements this year for all adult websites to have users confirm their age with details such as a credit card or ID document. The aim is to prevent minors from accessing pornography. But the Paris administrative tribunal on Monday suspended a government decree while investigating whether it was compatible with EU legislation. The French government has shared its intention to appeal to the Council of State, the country's highest administrative court. Advertisement The three platforms' owner, Aylo, said the decree's suspension was an "opportunity to reconsider more efficient approaches" to age verification. Aylo, based in Cyprus, had made its websites unavailable in France in early June as a protest against the French decree. Failure to comply could have lead to sanctions including fines or the blocking of the websites. Aylo argued that this was an ineffective mechanism that exposed people's data to bad actors, hacks or leaks. "Requiring you to repeatedly provide sensitive personal information creates an unacceptable security risk that we refuse to impose on our users," the company said in a message displayed on the sites' homepages earlier this month. About 40 percent of children in France access to porn sites every month, according to a 2024 study by France's Arcom audiovisual watchdog. In a bid to preserve privacy, the government decree also required operators to offer a third-party "double-blind" option that would prevent the platforms from seeing users' identifying information. Aylo, which reports seven million visitors in France daily across its various platforms, has called instead for governments to require makers of operating systems such as Apple, Microsoft and Google to verify users' ages at the level of individual devices. Advertisement The platform also argues that the French law "diverts users to thousands of sites that deliberately circumvent regulations" and fails to moderate videos for issues such as the age and consent of performers. Other countries such as the United Kingdom and Germany also enforce age-related access restrictions to adult websites.