How Poland's Next President Will Boost the Far Right

The presidential election in Poland delivered the latest anti-incumbent surprise in what has been a tough period for establishment candidates the world over. The right-wing populist Karol Nawrocki, a historian with no political experience, won a narrow victory in a June 1 run-off vote over a candidate aligned with the centrist Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his plans for closer European integration. Nawrocki will take office on Aug. 6. Tusk must now buckle up for a bumpy ride.
With a presidential veto, Nawrocki will halt Tusk's bid to liberalize abortion law and to overhaul a courts system packed with judges politically aligned with the previous far-right government led by the Law and Justice Party (PiS), a change demanded by the European Union. But Nawrocki won't just block Tusk's reform plans. He'll also work to exploit potential divisions within Tusk's four-party governing coalition, particularly among lawmakers in the conservative Polish People's Party, still the weakest link in Tusk's alliance.
Read More: Polish Women Fight Back Against Restrictive Abortion Laws
In fact, the one-point presidential election loss for his ally Rafal Trzaskowski leaves Prime Minister Tusk as a lame duck, and it underlines the growing frustration of many Poles with a rising cost of living and the now long-term presence of up to 2.5 million Ukrainian refugees across the country. While support for Ukraine's defense and fear and loathing of Russia span most of Poland's political spectrum, a sluggish economy leaves many feeling Ukrainians should return home. A recent survery by Poland's Centre for Public Opinion Research found that support for accepting Ukrainian refugees dropped from 81% in early 2023 to just 50% in March. Nawrocki's ability to block Tusk's agenda will leave more voters fed up with Tusk's government, boosting right and far-right parties ahead of parliamentary elections in 2027.
It hasn't been all bad news for Tusk. He comfortably survived a no-confidence vote on June 11. He'll now make changes to the government itself, and focus only on the more broadly popular policies. Tusk will likely downsize the number of ministries, particularly for economic management, and placate key coalition partners with important new jobs. His government will prioritize social policies and new subsidies to take some of the edge off voters anxieties over Poland's economy, push plans to make housing more affordable, and avoid policies they know the new President will veto. Tusk's party will also try to undercut the right's hold on anti-immigration sentiment by focusing on border protection tougher laws. Even before the election, Tusk pushed through a temporary suspension of the right to asylum, bringing his government closer to the anti-immigrant positions of the far-right.
But these are coping tactics, not a roadmap to winning the next elections. Its political base expects Tusk's Civic Platform party to loosen abortion restrictions. (Since 2021, Polish law permit abortion only in cases of rape, incest, or the serious threat to a woman's life or health.) His supporters also want him to restore rule of law in the country after the previous PiS government undermined the independence of some of Poland's political institutions. But 'elections have consequences,' as Dick Cheney, the U.S. Vice President now in the political wilderness, once said. Nawrocki will use the powers of the presidency to undermine Tusk on the European stage. He can't make foreign or security policy, but he can use his political alignment with Donald Trump and Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban, as well as criticism of E.U. conformity, to remind leaders across Europe that Poland remains a polarized place and a shaky long-term bet for closer alignment with the bloc's policies and political values.
In particular, support for neighboring Ukraine and its European aspirations will face new hurdles. Though Nawrocki supports Ukraine's war effort, he opposes E.U. and NATO membership for Ukraine and will push for cuts to benefits to Ukrainian refugees still in Poland. The new President won't have the power to create policy himself, but his willingness to criticize increasingly unpopular pro-Ukraine measures will make life much more difficult—for Ukrainians and for Tusk.

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