Putting Biden's head on a stake is not helpful
We're all doomed. These are end times, children. Resistance is futile.
Oh wait. Never mind.
Of course it looks and feels this way, and we nervous cases can argue that this is true, at least for the poor, the world's starving, the Constitution, the economy and the Earth. Pick pick pick. Yet there are many reasons for hope that we can turn this around.
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What is the Prenatal Equal Protection Act? New bill would effectively ban abortion in Ohio
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Yahoo
3 hours ago
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Fed Daly eyes fall for possible policy shift
-- San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly voiced a cautiously optimistic outlook for monetary policy and economic conditions in a wide-ranging interview on CNBC, citing signs of balanced progress on both inflation and employment. While acknowledging the potential inflationary effects from tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty, Daly affirmed that 'the economy remains in a good place, and policies in a good place.' The May inflation report offered encouragement, according to Daly, particularly in the housing and services sectors, where price moderation has continued. 'The May data just confirmed an ongoing pattern… we saw inflation continue to come down,' she said, calling the developments 'great news, both for our inflation mandate, but also for American families.' Daly outlined three scenarios for how inflation might evolve during the summer, ranging from a delayed spike to muted pass-through effects due to corporate mitigation strategies. 'We're just going to have to wait and see and collect more information,' she noted, adding that feedback from national businesses showed 'a little more optimism, cautious optimism.' Asked about the likelihood of a rate cut in July, Daly signaled a preference for a more patient approach, saying, 'For me, I look more to the fall, and by then we'll have quite a bit more information.' She emphasized that unless the labor market saw meaningful and persistent weakening, immediate easing would be unlikely. On labor availability, Daly said wage growth has remained consistent with long-run economic fundamentals, and firms report improving conditions for hiring. 'Right now, we haven't seen a broad impact… firms are telling me that they have an easier time finding workers today than they did just last year.' Artificial intelligence, another emerging economic variable, has yet to disrupt job markets in a material way, according to Daly's discussions with business leaders. 'They repeat to us that this is not a way to reduce their payrolls as much as… to augment their payrolls,' she said, noting that employers are using AI to increase productivity rather than cut staff. Daly was measured in her assessment of using tariffs as a rationale for policy shifts, saying, 'I never trust just the theory. There's really three things you have to look at: the theory helps us, history also helps us, and then you have to talk to people.' While confident in current policy settings, Daly warned against complacency amid labor market softening, saying, 'If you ask me where we are in the labor market, I would say we're at a point where additional softening could easily turn into weakening, which I don't want to see.' She cautioned against policy inaction based on inflation fears that may never materialize. Related articles Fed Daly eyes fall for possible policy shift Fed keeps rates steady, but sees fewer cuts next year on stagflation concerns WATCH LIVE: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Holds Press Conference Sign in to access your portfolio
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3 hours ago
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US equities don't need a Fed cut, but the bond market might
The Federal Reserve held interest rates higher at its June meeting on Wednesday. Sage Advisory managing partner Thomas Urano joins Market Domination to discuss how the Fed's rate decision impacts the fixed income market. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here. You mentioned how the Fed does seem to be on hold. We all heard J. Powell this week, and certainly it does not look like a Fed that's in any rush to cut. I mean, you listen to Powell, and he clearly wants to see how tariff inflation plays out. Does the market need a cut, Thomas, to move higher? I don't think the market needs a cut. Um, I mean, you know, the bond market may need a cut to move higher from here. Um, but I'm not exactly sure the equity market needs a cut. You know, the economy is doing okay. I think, you know, the the takeaways from the meeting was that Fed expects economy to rebound strongly in Q2, but then kind of come with a slightly below average growth rate. You know, mid-ones, 14, 15 range for 2025. So that's not a really strong growth picture, so I'm not sure that really supports rising multiples and rising earnings expectations in the equity market. Um, but on the other hand, slow growth, um, I think it does set the bond market up for considering at some point in 2026, the Fed does get the ball moving on pushing policy rates lower. Um, but that I think is all predicated on this idea that inflation, or tariff-driven inflation, um, remains kind of moderate or low. And, you know, the idea that transitory inflation, you know, that's changed to anticipatory inflation, meaning, I think Powell suggested the Fed expects tariffs to cause what he described as meaningful increase in inflation, although we haven't seen that yet, right? We've realized inflation over the first half of 2025 has been quite low. So, uh, we haven't seen any pressure on that front yet. Um, I think all of that is what leaves the Fed just kind of in this wait-and-see mode. Thomas, does that leave us all, taking all that together and then just looking at something simple like the 10-year, right at 437 right now, is it just too high? Are you expecting that to come down at some point based on all those things you were just laying out there? Um, I, you know, I think the 10-year note at somewhere between four, four and a half can, you can hang around that zone for a longer period of time. I think what's more interesting is the four, is the two-year note hanging around 4%, right? And ultimately, if the Fed is going to engage in a policy shift lower, meaning target range, I think, you know, at the dot plots somewhere around three and a half, maybe three and a quarter, um, that sets the stage for a bit of a rally in the front of the curve, which would then ultimately kind of provide some slope, positive slope back to the yield curve, twos, tens, get a bit more slope in there, um, which I think is a healthier picture. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data