China's 2025 LNG imports expected to fall in unusual downturn, analysts say

BEIJING/SINGAPORE: China's annual imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are forecast to decline for the first time in three years on weak industrial demand and strong domestic and piped gas supply, according to revised forecasts from five research firms.
A decline in imports at the world's top LNG buyer would drive up global supply and drag Asian spot prices, which are down 12 per cent so far this year.
Imports are set to fall between 6 per cent and 11 per cent from the 76.65 million metric tons shipped last year. Previous estimates had noted that imports were to hit an all-time high as economic stimulus measures from Beijing were expected to lift industrial demand. However, US tariffs have had a significant impact on China's exports, said Rystad's analyst Xiong Wei "China's consumer price index has also posted year-on-year declines for several consecutive months, reflecting weak consumer confidence," said Xiong.
Weak industrial demand and a mild winter have hit natural gas consumption overall, according to analysts at Rystad, Kpler and ICIS. Consumers are increasingly opting for the cheaper domestically produced gas or pipeline imports, they added.
The import fall would also be an unusual blip in a sector that has otherwise recorded steady growth. China's LNG imports last contracted in 2022 as demand tumbled during the pandemic lockdowns, according to customs data.
China imports fell to 20 million metric tons during the first four months of this year, down from nearly 29 million tons in the corresponding period last year, customs data showed.
"Even with a sudden and sharp rebound in the second half, it wouldn't be enough to offset the weakness seen so far," said Yuanda Wang, a senior analyst at ICIS.
Rystad Energy estimates that gas consumption for the industrial and chemical sectors combined will fall by roughly 1 per cent.
Demand from the industrial and chemical sectors usually grows by 10 to 15 bcm each year, according to analysts from Kpler.
DEMAND WANES
Weaker demand in China is already showing up in import statistics as Chinese buyers cut back on purchases from major producers like Australia.
Imports from Australia, Malaysia and Russia were all down more than 20 per cent year-on-year during the January–to-April period, according to Chinese customs data.
Australia, China's top LNG supplier in 2024, shipped 6.38 million tons to China in the first four months of 2025, down 24 per cent from a year earlier, according to China customs data.
Kpler data showed the decline came mainly from long-term contract volumes, while spot purchases held steady.

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