Why is John Swinney talking about independence now?
It should be unremarkable that First Minister John Swinney is once again making the case for Scottish independence.After all, he is also the leader of the Scottish National Party, which literally exists to achieve statehood for Scotland.At the Scotland 2050 conference on Tuesday, Swinney argued that Scotland was treated as an "afterthought" by Westminster and had the "capacity to stand and flourish on our own two feet".These arguments are not new but there seems to be a renewed effort to make them.
What has perhaps been more remarkable is how relatively muted Swinney and other leading SNP figures have been on this subject over the past year.They have talked about it but this conversation has been secondary to a focus on dealing with the day-to-day business of devolved government.Their defeat in the 2024 general election - after nearly a decade of political dominance of Scottish seats at Westminster - was a serious setback to their cause.They went into that campaign with a manifesto that on page one, line one, said: "Vote SNP for Scotland to become an independent country".
What has happened to the SNP vote?
Instead, a significant portion of their usual support either stayed at home or switched to Labour to help them deliver "change" by ousting the Conservative government.The "yellow wall" the SNP had built across the central belt of Scotland crumbled. Nationwide, they lost 39 of their 48 seats, mostly to Labour.Swinney had only been party leader for a matter of weeks at this point so he escaped much of the blame for this catastrophic result.He was, however, left to pick up the pieces from this and the wider series of problems his party faced.The Perthshire North MSP was elected SNP leader unopposed after Humza Yousaf quit rather than lose a confidence vote at Holyrood following his decision to collapse his party's power sharing deal with the Greens.
There was internal strife over gender politics, environmental commitments and a police investigation into the SNP's finances which has since developed into a prosecution of the party's former chief executive, Peter Murrell. Alongside all of this, the party's independence strategy had hit a brick wall.When Nicola Sturgeon was first minister, she promised another referendum and, when the UK government refused to grant Holyrood the power to proceed, the Scottish government took a case to the UK Supreme Court to see if they could go ahead anyway.The judges ruled that any future referendum must have the consent of UK ministers.The party flirted with the idea of treating a national election as a makeshift referendum but they knew that trying to win more than half the votes in a multi-party contest would be an extremely difficult thing to do and backed away from that.If you are the SNP leader you cannot just give up on independence. As the former first minister Alex Salmond once said: "The dream shall never die".
What do the polls say about independence?
Independence has not had much profile since the 2024 election to allow Swinney time to bring calm to the chaos he inherited.He also wanted to demonstrate a commitment to dealing with everyday issues like reducing NHS waiting times and child poverty.The first minister has repeatedly stressed that delivering on these priorities is what his administration is about.He sees this as an essential route to renewing trust with voters and convincing them to keep him in office.However, there are other factors for him to consider. Support for independence is far greater than support for the SNP according to the current trend in opinion polling.There used to be a much closer relationship between the two but the gap has widened considerably since Sturgeon left office and since the police investigation into party finances became headline news.Might this be a potential well of support to be tapped ahead of the Holyrood election in May 2026? Current supporters of the SNP also need to be motivated to campaign for the party and to turn out to vote.As one senior SNP source put it: "There is an undercurrent of anxiety in the party to get on the front foot". That's especially true after losing the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election earlier this month.
How much should the SNP talk about independence?
Supporters of Swinney argue that while that defeat was disappointing, it was sufficiently narrow (Labour edged it by 600 votes) to suggest the SNP is able to get a hearing again from voters.They talk about Swinney's leadership entering a new phase where not only will he seek to demonstrate delivery in devolved government but also invite the public to imagine what more could be achieved if Scotland was an independent country.That is essentially what he did at the Scotland 2050 conference on Tuesday, describing this as the "defining choice" of this generation, without setting out how or when this choice might be made.There is a significant tension in his dual approach to political strategy.If Swinney is perceived to be talking about independence too much, he risks undermining his own commitment to focus on fixing problems in the devolved public services.If he is seen to talk about independence too little, he risks alienating those within and beyond the membership of the SNP who support this political project.Party sources believe they need to find a careful balance between the two and develop a credible story about competency in government that can help grow support for independence.This was more or less the strategy that Salmond pursued in the early years of SNP administration. It is harder now.The problem is that after eighteen years in office, the party cannot avoid responsibility for many of the challenges Scotland faces including large NHS waiting lists, overcrowded prisons and ferries that are long overdue and massively over budget.
Will there be a second indyref?
In another speech this week, Swinney set out plans to use technology to overhaul our public services.This vision of a "digital refit" is not going to be delivered before the Holyrood election and whatever the SNP leader can achieve in the next eleven months, many problems will remain unresolved.On independence, his political opponents who want Scotland to remain part of the UK will accuse him of pursuing an obsession that was rejected in the 2014 referendum.They will also argue that Scottish independence would add to uncertainty at a time of global instability.There is no obvious prospect of another referendum in the near future and senior SNP figures accept there would need to be sustained majority support for independence to overcome the UK veto on another referendum.This will presumably be among the topics discussed further at the SNP's national council in Perth on Saturday, where independence is the key item on the agenda of the body which offers a bridge between the party leadership and its membership.The re-emergence of independence campaigning is a reminder that this remains a fundamental fault line in Scottish politics, even if it appears more dormant than at any time since the referendum in 2014.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Leader Live
17 minutes ago
- Leader Live
Assisted dying: All you need to know following the crunch Commons vote
Here, the PA news agency takes a look at the Bill and what happens next after a significant moment in its journey to become law. – What is in the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill? The proposed legislation would allow terminally ill adults in England and Wales, with fewer than six months to live, to apply for an assisted death. This would be subject to approval by two doctors and a panel featuring a social worker, senior legal figure and psychiatrist. The terminally ill person would take an approved substance, provided by a doctor but administered only by the person themselves. On Friday, MPs voted 314 to 291, majority 23, in favour of legalising assisted dying as they completed the mainstay of their work on the Bill. It will now face further debate in the House of Lords. – When would assisted dying be available if the Bill became law? The implementation period has been doubled to a maximum of four years from royal assent, the point it is rubber stamped into law, rather than the initially suggested two years. If the Bill was to pass later this year that would mean it might not be until 2029, potentially coinciding with the end of this Government's parliament, that assisted dying was being offered. Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, who is the parliamentarian behind the Bill and put forward the extended timeframe, has insisted it is 'a backstop' rather than a target, as she pledged to 'hold the Government's feet to the fire' on implementing legislation should the Bill pass. The extended implementation period was one of a number of changes made since the Bill was first introduced to the Commons back in October. – What other changes have there been? On Friday, MPs bolstered the Bill so people with eating disorders are ruled out of falling into its scope. Another amendment, requiring ministers to report within a year of the Bill passing on how assisted dying could affect palliative care, was also approved by MPs. Previously, a High Court safeguard was dropped, with the oversight of judges in the assisted dying process replaced with expert panels. The change was much criticised by opponents, who said it weakened the Bill, but Ms Leadbeater has argued it strengthens it. At the end of a weeks-long committee process earlier this year to amend the Bill, Ms Leadbeater said rather than removing judges from the process, 'we are adding the expertise and experience of psychiatrists and social workers to provide extra protections in the areas of assessing mental capacity and detecting coercion while retaining judicial oversight'. Changes were also made to ensure the establishment of independent advocates to support people with learning disabilities, autism or mental health conditions and to set up a disability advisory board to advise on legal implementation and impact on disabled people. Amendments added earlier this month during report stage in the Commons will also see assisted dying adverts banned if the Bill becomes law, and a prohibition on medics being able to speak to under-18s about assisted dying. – Do we know much more about the potential impact of such a service coming in? A Government impact assessment, published earlier this month, estimated that between 164 and 647 assisted deaths could potentially take place in the first year of the service, rising to between 1,042 and 4,559 in year 10. The establishment of a Voluntary Assisted Dying Commissioner and three-member expert panels would cost an estimated average of between £10.9 million and £13.6 million per year, the document said. It had 'not been possible' to estimate the overall implementation costs at this stage of the process, it added. While noting that cutting end-of-life care costs 'is not stated as an objective of the policy', the assessment estimated that such costs could be reduced by as much as an estimated £10 million in the first year and almost £60 million after 10 years. – Do healthcare staff have to take part in assisted dying? It was already the case that doctors would not have to take part, but MPs have since voted to insert a new clause into the Bill extending that to anyone. The wording means 'no person', including social care workers and pharmacists, is obliged to take part in assisted dying and can now opt out. Amendments to the Bill were debated on care homes and hospices also being able to opt out but these were not voted on. Ms Leadbeater has previously said there is nothing in the Bill to say they have to, nor is there anything to say they do not have to, adding on the Parliament Matters podcast that this is 'the best position to be in' and that nobody should be 'dictating to hospices what they do and don't do around assisted dying'. – What will happen next? Friday's vote in the Commons makes it more likely for the assisted dying Bill to become law, now that it has the backing of a majority of MPs. But this is not guaranteed, and first it must continue on a journey through Parliament. The Bill now heads to the House of Lords, as both Houses of Parliament must agree its final text before it can be signed into law. During the next stages, peers are expected to put forward amendments to the Bill. If the Commons disagrees with these amendments, this will spark a process known as 'ping pong' which will continue until both Houses agree over its text. – Will the Bill definitely become law? There is a risk that the Bill could be stuck in a deadlock between the House of Commons and House of Lords, as it goes back and forth in disagreement. If this continues until the current session of Parliament ends, then the Bill would fall. Ms Leadbeater told journalists on Friday she hoped there were no attempts to purposefully wreck it by peers. 'I really hope there are no funny games, because the process has been extremely fair,' she said. The Spen Valley MP said she did not know when the current parliamentary session would end, but suggested it could stretch into late 2025, giving her Bill the best part of six months to complete the full parliamentary process. Speaking about the end of the session to reporters, Ms Leadbeater said: 'I am not imagining that is going to be imminently, but it could be before the end of the year.' One member of the House of Lords, Bishop of London Dame Sarah Mullally, has already indicated she is against it. The Church of England bishop said peers 'must oppose' the assisted dying Bill when it reaches them because of the 'mounting evidence that it is unworkable and unsafe'. – What about assisted dying in the rest of the UK and Crown Dependencies? The Isle of Man looks likely to become the first part of the British Isles to legalise assisted dying, after its proposed legislation passed through a final vote of the parliament's upper chamber in March. In what was hailed a 'landmark moment', members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) in May voted in favour of the Assisted Dying for Terminally Ill Adults (Scotland) Bill, backing its general principles. It will now go forward for further scrutiny and amendments but will become law only if MSPs approve it in a final vote, which should take place later this year. Any move to legalise assisted dying in Northern Ireland would have to be passed by politicians in the devolved Assembly at Stormont. Jersey's parliament is expected to debate a draft law for an assisted dying service on the island for terminally ill people later this year. With a likely 18-month implementation period if a law is approved, the earliest it could come into effect would be summer 2027.
Rhyl Journal
17 minutes ago
- Rhyl Journal
Assisted dying: All you need to know following the crunch Commons vote
Here, the PA news agency takes a look at the Bill and what happens next after a significant moment in its journey to become law. – What is in the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill? The proposed legislation would allow terminally ill adults in England and Wales, with fewer than six months to live, to apply for an assisted death. This would be subject to approval by two doctors and a panel featuring a social worker, senior legal figure and psychiatrist. The terminally ill person would take an approved substance, provided by a doctor but administered only by the person themselves. On Friday, MPs voted 314 to 291, majority 23, in favour of legalising assisted dying as they completed the mainstay of their work on the Bill. It will now face further debate in the House of Lords. – When would assisted dying be available if the Bill became law? The implementation period has been doubled to a maximum of four years from royal assent, the point it is rubber stamped into law, rather than the initially suggested two years. If the Bill was to pass later this year that would mean it might not be until 2029, potentially coinciding with the end of this Government's parliament, that assisted dying was being offered. Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, who is the parliamentarian behind the Bill and put forward the extended timeframe, has insisted it is 'a backstop' rather than a target, as she pledged to 'hold the Government's feet to the fire' on implementing legislation should the Bill pass. The extended implementation period was one of a number of changes made since the Bill was first introduced to the Commons back in October. – What other changes have there been? On Friday, MPs bolstered the Bill so people with eating disorders are ruled out of falling into its scope. Another amendment, requiring ministers to report within a year of the Bill passing on how assisted dying could affect palliative care, was also approved by MPs. Previously, a High Court safeguard was dropped, with the oversight of judges in the assisted dying process replaced with expert panels. The change was much criticised by opponents, who said it weakened the Bill, but Ms Leadbeater has argued it strengthens it. At the end of a weeks-long committee process earlier this year to amend the Bill, Ms Leadbeater said rather than removing judges from the process, 'we are adding the expertise and experience of psychiatrists and social workers to provide extra protections in the areas of assessing mental capacity and detecting coercion while retaining judicial oversight'. Changes were also made to ensure the establishment of independent advocates to support people with learning disabilities, autism or mental health conditions and to set up a disability advisory board to advise on legal implementation and impact on disabled people. Amendments added earlier this month during report stage in the Commons will also see assisted dying adverts banned if the Bill becomes law, and a prohibition on medics being able to speak to under-18s about assisted dying. – Do we know much more about the potential impact of such a service coming in? A Government impact assessment, published earlier this month, estimated that between 164 and 647 assisted deaths could potentially take place in the first year of the service, rising to between 1,042 and 4,559 in year 10. The establishment of a Voluntary Assisted Dying Commissioner and three-member expert panels would cost an estimated average of between £10.9 million and £13.6 million per year, the document said. It had 'not been possible' to estimate the overall implementation costs at this stage of the process, it added. While noting that cutting end-of-life care costs 'is not stated as an objective of the policy', the assessment estimated that such costs could be reduced by as much as an estimated £10 million in the first year and almost £60 million after 10 years. – Do healthcare staff have to take part in assisted dying? It was already the case that doctors would not have to take part, but MPs have since voted to insert a new clause into the Bill extending that to anyone. The wording means 'no person', including social care workers and pharmacists, is obliged to take part in assisted dying and can now opt out. Amendments to the Bill were debated on care homes and hospices also being able to opt out but these were not voted on. Ms Leadbeater has previously said there is nothing in the Bill to say they have to, nor is there anything to say they do not have to, adding on the Parliament Matters podcast that this is 'the best position to be in' and that nobody should be 'dictating to hospices what they do and don't do around assisted dying'. – What will happen next? Friday's vote in the Commons makes it more likely for the assisted dying Bill to become law, now that it has the backing of a majority of MPs. But this is not guaranteed, and first it must continue on a journey through Parliament. The Bill now heads to the House of Lords, as both Houses of Parliament must agree its final text before it can be signed into law. During the next stages, peers are expected to put forward amendments to the Bill. If the Commons disagrees with these amendments, this will spark a process known as 'ping pong' which will continue until both Houses agree over its text. – Will the Bill definitely become law? There is a risk that the Bill could be stuck in a deadlock between the House of Commons and House of Lords, as it goes back and forth in disagreement. If this continues until the current session of Parliament ends, then the Bill would fall. Ms Leadbeater told journalists on Friday she hoped there were no attempts to purposefully wreck it by peers. 'I really hope there are no funny games, because the process has been extremely fair,' she said. The Spen Valley MP said she did not know when the current parliamentary session would end, but suggested it could stretch into late 2025, giving her Bill the best part of six months to complete the full parliamentary process. Speaking about the end of the session to reporters, Ms Leadbeater said: 'I am not imagining that is going to be imminently, but it could be before the end of the year.' One member of the House of Lords, Bishop of London Dame Sarah Mullally, has already indicated she is against it. The Church of England bishop said peers 'must oppose' the assisted dying Bill when it reaches them because of the 'mounting evidence that it is unworkable and unsafe'. – What about assisted dying in the rest of the UK and Crown Dependencies? The Isle of Man looks likely to become the first part of the British Isles to legalise assisted dying, after its proposed legislation passed through a final vote of the parliament's upper chamber in March. In what was hailed a 'landmark moment', members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) in May voted in favour of the Assisted Dying for Terminally Ill Adults (Scotland) Bill, backing its general principles. It will now go forward for further scrutiny and amendments but will become law only if MSPs approve it in a final vote, which should take place later this year. Any move to legalise assisted dying in Northern Ireland would have to be passed by politicians in the devolved Assembly at Stormont. Jersey's parliament is expected to debate a draft law for an assisted dying service on the island for terminally ill people later this year. With a likely 18-month implementation period if a law is approved, the earliest it could come into effect would be summer 2027.
North Wales Chronicle
17 minutes ago
- North Wales Chronicle
Assisted dying: All you need to know following the crunch Commons vote
Here, the PA news agency takes a look at the Bill and what happens next after a significant moment in its journey to become law. – What is in the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill? The proposed legislation would allow terminally ill adults in England and Wales, with fewer than six months to live, to apply for an assisted death. This would be subject to approval by two doctors and a panel featuring a social worker, senior legal figure and psychiatrist. The terminally ill person would take an approved substance, provided by a doctor but administered only by the person themselves. On Friday, MPs voted 314 to 291, majority 23, in favour of legalising assisted dying as they completed the mainstay of their work on the Bill. It will now face further debate in the House of Lords. – When would assisted dying be available if the Bill became law? The implementation period has been doubled to a maximum of four years from royal assent, the point it is rubber stamped into law, rather than the initially suggested two years. If the Bill was to pass later this year that would mean it might not be until 2029, potentially coinciding with the end of this Government's parliament, that assisted dying was being offered. Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, who is the parliamentarian behind the Bill and put forward the extended timeframe, has insisted it is 'a backstop' rather than a target, as she pledged to 'hold the Government's feet to the fire' on implementing legislation should the Bill pass. The extended implementation period was one of a number of changes made since the Bill was first introduced to the Commons back in October. – What other changes have there been? On Friday, MPs bolstered the Bill so people with eating disorders are ruled out of falling into its scope. Another amendment, requiring ministers to report within a year of the Bill passing on how assisted dying could affect palliative care, was also approved by MPs. Previously, a High Court safeguard was dropped, with the oversight of judges in the assisted dying process replaced with expert panels. The change was much criticised by opponents, who said it weakened the Bill, but Ms Leadbeater has argued it strengthens it. At the end of a weeks-long committee process earlier this year to amend the Bill, Ms Leadbeater said rather than removing judges from the process, 'we are adding the expertise and experience of psychiatrists and social workers to provide extra protections in the areas of assessing mental capacity and detecting coercion while retaining judicial oversight'. Changes were also made to ensure the establishment of independent advocates to support people with learning disabilities, autism or mental health conditions and to set up a disability advisory board to advise on legal implementation and impact on disabled people. Amendments added earlier this month during report stage in the Commons will also see assisted dying adverts banned if the Bill becomes law, and a prohibition on medics being able to speak to under-18s about assisted dying. – Do we know much more about the potential impact of such a service coming in? A Government impact assessment, published earlier this month, estimated that between 164 and 647 assisted deaths could potentially take place in the first year of the service, rising to between 1,042 and 4,559 in year 10. The establishment of a Voluntary Assisted Dying Commissioner and three-member expert panels would cost an estimated average of between £10.9 million and £13.6 million per year, the document said. It had 'not been possible' to estimate the overall implementation costs at this stage of the process, it added. While noting that cutting end-of-life care costs 'is not stated as an objective of the policy', the assessment estimated that such costs could be reduced by as much as an estimated £10 million in the first year and almost £60 million after 10 years. – Do healthcare staff have to take part in assisted dying? It was already the case that doctors would not have to take part, but MPs have since voted to insert a new clause into the Bill extending that to anyone. The wording means 'no person', including social care workers and pharmacists, is obliged to take part in assisted dying and can now opt out. Amendments to the Bill were debated on care homes and hospices also being able to opt out but these were not voted on. Ms Leadbeater has previously said there is nothing in the Bill to say they have to, nor is there anything to say they do not have to, adding on the Parliament Matters podcast that this is 'the best position to be in' and that nobody should be 'dictating to hospices what they do and don't do around assisted dying'. – What will happen next? Friday's vote in the Commons makes it more likely for the assisted dying Bill to become law, now that it has the backing of a majority of MPs. But this is not guaranteed, and first it must continue on a journey through Parliament. The Bill now heads to the House of Lords, as both Houses of Parliament must agree its final text before it can be signed into law. During the next stages, peers are expected to put forward amendments to the Bill. If the Commons disagrees with these amendments, this will spark a process known as 'ping pong' which will continue until both Houses agree over its text. – Will the Bill definitely become law? There is a risk that the Bill could be stuck in a deadlock between the House of Commons and House of Lords, as it goes back and forth in disagreement. If this continues until the current session of Parliament ends, then the Bill would fall. Ms Leadbeater told journalists on Friday she hoped there were no attempts to purposefully wreck it by peers. 'I really hope there are no funny games, because the process has been extremely fair,' she said. The Spen Valley MP said she did not know when the current parliamentary session would end, but suggested it could stretch into late 2025, giving her Bill the best part of six months to complete the full parliamentary process. Speaking about the end of the session to reporters, Ms Leadbeater said: 'I am not imagining that is going to be imminently, but it could be before the end of the year.' One member of the House of Lords, Bishop of London Dame Sarah Mullally, has already indicated she is against it. The Church of England bishop said peers 'must oppose' the assisted dying Bill when it reaches them because of the 'mounting evidence that it is unworkable and unsafe'. – What about assisted dying in the rest of the UK and Crown Dependencies? The Isle of Man looks likely to become the first part of the British Isles to legalise assisted dying, after its proposed legislation passed through a final vote of the parliament's upper chamber in March. In what was hailed a 'landmark moment', members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) in May voted in favour of the Assisted Dying for Terminally Ill Adults (Scotland) Bill, backing its general principles. It will now go forward for further scrutiny and amendments but will become law only if MSPs approve it in a final vote, which should take place later this year. Any move to legalise assisted dying in Northern Ireland would have to be passed by politicians in the devolved Assembly at Stormont. Jersey's parliament is expected to debate a draft law for an assisted dying service on the island for terminally ill people later this year. With a likely 18-month implementation period if a law is approved, the earliest it could come into effect would be summer 2027.
