UN says 70 per cent chance that 2025-2029 average warming will top 1.5C
The planet is therefore expected to remain at historic levels of warming after the two hottest years ever recorded in 2023 and 2024.
02 Jun 2025 06:01pm
A worker cleans the lines of a cooling tower at an ice factory on a hot summer day in Karachi on May 29, 2025. (Photo by Asif HASSAN / AFP)
GENEVA - The United Nations warned there is a 70 per cent chance that average warming from 2025 to 2029 will exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius international benchmark.
The planet is therefore expected to remain at historic levels of warming after the two hottest years ever recorded in 2023 and 2024, according to an annual climate report published by the World Meteorological Organisation, the UN's weather and climate agency. A man drinks water in Ronda, southern Spain as the country faces the first heatwave of the season, on May 28, 2025. (Photo by JORGE GUERRERO / AFP)
"We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record," said the WMO's deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett.
"Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet."
The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels -- and to 1.5C if possible.
The targets are calculated relative to the 1850-1900 average, before humanity began industrially burning coal, oil, and gas, which emits carbon dioxide (CO2) -- the greenhouse gas largely responsible for climate change.
The more optimistic 1.5C target is one that growing numbers of climate scientists now consider impossible to achieve, as CO2 emissions are still increasing.
Five-year outlook
The WMO's latest projections are compiled by Britain's Met Office national weather service, based on forecasts from multiple global centres.
The agency forecasts that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 will be between 1.2C and 1.9C above the pre-industrial average.
It says there is a 70 per cent chance that average warming across the 2025-2029 period will exceed 1.5C.
"This is entirely consistent with our proximity to passing 1.5C on a long-term basis in the late 2020s or early 2030s," said Peter Thorne, director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units group at the University of Maynooth.
"I would expect in two to three years this probability to be 100 per cent" in the five-year outlook, he added.
The WMO says there is an 80 per cent chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (2024).
Longer-term outlook
To smooth out natural climate variations, several methods assess long-term warming, the WMO's climate services director Christopher Hewitt told a press conference.
One approach combines observations from the past 10 years with projections for the next decade.
This predicts that the 20-year average warming for 2015-2034 will be 1.44C.
There is no consensus yet on how best to assess long-term warming.
The EU's climate monitor Copernicus reckons warming currently stands at 1.39C, and projects 1.5C could be reached in mid-2029 or sooner.
2C warming now on the radar
Although "exceptionally unlikely" at one per cent, there is now an above-zero chance of at least one year in the next five exceeding 2C of warming.
"It's the first time we've ever seen such an event in our computer predictions," said the Met Office's Adam Scaife.
"It is shocking," and "that probability is going to rise".
He recalled that a decade ago, forecasts first showed the very low probability of a calendar year exceeding the 1.5C benchmark. But that came to pass in 2024.
'Dangerous' level of warming
Every fraction of a degree of additional warming can intensify heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, and the melting of ice caps, sea ice, and glaciers.
This year's climate is offering no respite.
Last week, China recorded temperatures exceeding 40C (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in some areas, the United Arab Emirates nearly 52C (126F), and Pakistan was hit by deadly winds following an intense heatwave.
"We've already hit a dangerous level of warming," with recent "deadly floods in Australia, France, Algeria, India, China and Ghana, wildfires in Canada," said climatologist Friederike Otto of Imperial College London.
"Relying on oil, gas and coal in 2025 is total lunacy."
Other warnings
Arctic warming is predicted to continue to outstrip the global average over the next five years, said the WMO.
Sea ice predictions for March 2025-2029 suggest further reductions in the Barents Sea, the Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk.
Forecasts suggest South Asia will be wetter than average across the next five years.
And precipitation patterns suggest wetter than average conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and drier than average conditions over the Amazon. - AFP
More Like This
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Star
16 hours ago
- The Star
Monsoon intensifies: heavy rain and strong winds expected across Thailand
BANGKOK: The Thai Meteorological Department reported on Saturday (June 21) that the southwest monsoon is intensifying over the Andaman Sea, Thailand, and the Gulf, while a low-pressure cell over northern Vietnam is contributing to wetter conditions. Increased rainfall is expected across Thailand, with isolated heavy rain likely in the North, East, and South, and very heavy rain in the Northeast. Residents in these areas are advised to stay alert for potential heavy rain and localised flooding, the department said. Meanwhile, sea conditions in the upper Andaman Sea and Gulf of Thailand are expected to see waves of 1-2 metres, increasing to over 2 metres in thunderstorms. All ships operating in these areas should exercise caution and avoid thunderstorms, the department warned. - Photo: The Nation/ANN The weather forecast for the next 24 hours is as follows: North: Scattered thundershowers and isolated heavy rain in Mae Hong Son, Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Phayao, Nan, Tak, Uttaradit, Phitsanulok, Kamphaeng Phet and Phetchabun; minimum temperature 23-26 degrees Celsius, maximum 32-35°C. Northeast: Scattered thundershowers and isolated heavy to very heavy rain in Loei, Nong Bua Lamphu, Nong Khai, Bueng Kan, Udon Thani, Sakon Nakhon, Nakhon Phanom, Khon Kaen, Kalasin, Mukdahan, Amnat Charoen and Ubon Ratchathani; minimum 23-26°C, maximum 31-35°C. Central: Scattered thundershowers mostly in Lopburi, Saraburi, Kanchanaburi, Ratchaburi, Samut Songkhram and Samut Sakhon; minimum 25-27°C, maximum 35-36°C. East: Scattered thundershowers and isolated heavy rain in Nakhon Nayok, Prachin Buri, Chonburi, Rayong, Chanthaburi and Trat; minimum 24-27°C, maximum 32-35°C; waves 1-2 metres high and above 2 metres high in thundershowers. South (east coast): Scattered thundershowers and isolated heavy rain in Nakhon Si Thammarat, Phatthalung, Songkhla, Yala and Narathiwat; minimum 24-26°C, maximum 30-34°C; waves about a metre high and above 2 metres high in thundershowers. South (west coast): Fairly widespread thundershowers and isolated heavy rain in Ranong, Phang Nga, Phuket, Krabi, Trang and Satun; minimum 22-24°C, maximum 30-33°C; waves about 1-2 metres high and above 2 metres high in thundershowers. Bangkok metropolitan area: Scattered thundershowers and isolated heavy rain; minimum 26-27°C, maximum 34-36°C. - The Nation/ANN
The Star
a day ago
- The Star
Slovenia faces worsening drought conditions
LJUBLJANA, June 20 (Xinhua) -- All regions of Slovenia are experiencing drought, with conditions expected to worsen by the end of June, the Slovenian environment agency warned Friday. With little rain forecast and temperatures projected to reach 30 to 35 degrees Celsius in the coming days, the agency said drought will intensify across the country. Surface soils are already very dry, and groundwater levels are steadily declining. The Carinthia region in the north is facing an "exceptional drought" due to a combination of low rainfall and increased evaporation. In the capital Ljubljana, temperatures reached 28 degrees Celsius this week. The agency's 2024 climate report warns that Slovenia's average temperature could rise by 1 to 6 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. It also confirmed that 2024 has so far been the warmest year on record in Slovenia, with average temperatures 1.8 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 norm.
Malay Mail
a day ago
- Malay Mail
Warming planet, wheezing people: How climate change is triggering an allergy crisis
PARIS, June 20 — Runny nose, itching eyes, worsening asthma symptoms — the effects of hay fever are nothing to sneeze at, experts say, warning of an 'explosion' of allergies as climate change lengthens and intensifies pollen seasons. The UN's World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has found that a shifting climate has already begun altering the production and distribution of pollen and spores. As winter frost thaws earlier and spring weather gets warmer, plants and trees flower earlier, extending the pollen season, numerous studies have shown. Air pollution can also increase people's sensitivity to allergens, while invasive species are spreading into new regions and causing fresh waves of allergies. More and more people, particularly in industrialised nations, have reported developing allergy symptoms in recent decades. Around a quarter of adults in Europe suffer from airborne allergies, including severe asthma, while the proportion among children is 30 to 40 per cent. That figure is expected to rise to half of Europeans by 2050, according to the World Health Organisation. 'We're in crisis because allergies are exploding,' said Severine Fernandez, president of the French Allergists' Union. Whereas previously an allergic person would endure only what is commonly known as hay fever, albeit sometimes for years, 'now that person can become asthmatic after one or two years', Fernandez said. Climate change affects allergy patients in multiple ways, according to a 2023 report by the WMO. — Picture by Raymond Manuel 'Irritant pollen' Climate change affects allergy patients in multiple ways, according to a 2023 report by the WMO. Rising levels of carbon dioxide, one of the main heat-trapping gases produced by burning fossil fuels, boost plant growth, in turn increasing pollen production. Air pollution not only irritates the airways of people exposed, but it also causes stress to plants, which then produce more 'allergenic and irritant pollen'. Nicolas Visez, an aerobiologist at the University of Lille, said each plant species reacted differently to a variety of factors such as water availability, temperature and CO2 concentrations. Birch trees for example will wither as summers get hotter and drier, while the heat causes a proliferation of ragweed, a highly allergenic invasive plant. 'There's no doubt that climate change is having an effect,' Visez said. In a study published in 2017, researchers projected that ragweed allergies would more than double in Europe by 2041-2060 as a result of climate change, raising the number of people affected from 33 million to 77 million. The authors suggested that higher pollen concentrations as well as longer pollen seasons could make symptoms more severe. A bee feeds on the nectar and pollen of a scarlet powder-puff wildflower at Eaton Canyon in Pasadena, California June 3, 2023. A Europe-wide 'AutoPollen' programme under development aims to provide real-time data on the distribution of pollen and fungal spores. — AFP pic Allergy action A Europe-wide 'AutoPollen' programme under development aims to provide real-time data on the distribution of pollen and fungal spores. In Switzerland, a tie-up with MeteoSwiss allows patients and doctors to match personal allergy profiles with maps of specific allergens throughout the country. In parts of France, authorities have planted 'pollinariums', gardens packed with the main local allergen species. These provide information on the very first pollen released into the air so that people can start taking antihistamines and other protective measures in a timely manner. 'Hazelnuts have started to bloom as early as mid-December, which wasn't the case before,' said Salome Pasquet, a botanist with the association behind the pollen gardens. 'That's really because we've had very mild winters, so flowering has come earlier,' she said. Some countries are taking an interventionist approach — cutting off the pollen at the source. In Japan, the government announced a plan in 2023 to combat allergies caused by the archipelago's many cedar trees, which includes felling cedars to replace them with species that produce less pollen. Countries in Europe are also more mindful of species in the environment, both native ones that have been planted and invasive newcomers like ragweed. Preference is given to species with a lower allergenic potential, such as maple or fruit trees. 'The idea is not to stop planting allergenic species,' Pasquet said, but to be mindful of creating diversity and avoiding having 'places where there are rows of birch trees, as was the case a few years ago'. It was birch trees in a client's garden that originally set off symptoms for Simon Barthelemy, an architect who lives near Paris. 'I had a major eye allergy, and it's been a recurring problem every year since,' he said. 'I'm on antihistamines, but if I don't take them I get itchy eyes, I'm very tired, I cough... I can't sleep at night.' — AFP
