'No upside and very considerable downside' in annoying China: Helen Clark and Don Brash warn
Helen Clark and Don Brash.
Photo:
RNZ
Two former prime ministers and an ex-governor of the Reserve Bank have put their names to a letter questioning the coalition government's foreign policy - in particular "positioning New Zealand alongside the United States as an adversary of China".
Helen Clark, Sir Sir Geoffrey Palmer and Dr Don Brash say they are "deeply concerned" about statements made by Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, and actions taken by the government, when it comes to our relationship with the two superpowers.
"Our country has for many years enjoyed a cordial relationship with both the United States and China. Both countries were comfortable with that in the past," they said.
"But more recently, the United States has described China not only as a competitor, but also as an adversary, and has been putting pressure on other countries to take sides."
They said while the US had made a valuable contribution to trade and development in the Pacific, and "good relations… must be maintained", they held concerns about initiatives such as AUKUS Pillar 2, which New Zealand is keeping an open mind about.
An update provided to ministers in February said Pillar 2 had the "potential to support New Zealand's national security, defence, and foreign policy settings in the Indo-Pacific" through technology sharing and development. China has [https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/542568/nz-in-holding-pattern-over-joining-aukus-pillar-ii-defence-briefing-docs-show warned New Zealand against joining it.
New Zealand did not consider Pillar 1, as it involved nuclear-powered submarines.
The group cited a number of decisions as potentially souring New Zealand's relationship with China, including:
They also cited Peters' recent criticism of the 2008 free-trade deal New Zealand made with China (signed during one of his former stints as foreign minister).
"It would not be surprising if China were to come to the conclusion that the special relationship which New Zealand has had with it since becoming the first developed country to have a free trade agreement with it in 2008 is no longer so valued by New Zealand.
"Yet China is already by far our largest export market, and is almost certain to become an even more important market as the country continues to develop. We see no upside and very considerable downside in the situation which has developed."
The group said while New Zealand shared more "political values" with the US, and a longer relationship, a "military relationship with the United States directed against China has many risks for New Zealand".
"That is especially true in a situation where the United States itself has recently become more ambivalent about its defence relationships with traditional partners."
They urged Luxon to "make it clear at the highest level that New Zealand retains its bipartisan commitment to its strategic partnership with China in the interests of a peaceful and prosperous region and world" when made it to Beijing, expected to be sometime this year.
Luxon first
met Chinese President Xi Jinping
at last year's APEC meeting. He was yet to visit China as prime minister.
The other signatories to the statement were former Speaker of the House Sir David Carter, former New Zealand Ambassador to China Carl Worker, and David Mahon, a New Zealand businessman resident in Beijing since 1984.
In response, a spokesperson for Peters told RNZ he saw "no value in indulging the tired arguments of various former politicians".
"The AUKUS II process was commenced by the Labour government in 2021. New Zealand has yet to be invited to join.
"The government stands by its independent foreign policy approach which has been transparent about its focus on advancing New Zealand's security and prosperity after the years of inaction by the previous administration."
Clark and Brash, once political foes, last year teamed up to criticise the government's foreign policy, in paticular its
refusal to rule out joining AUKUS Pillar 2
.
Labour has promised it would
not sign New Zealand up to the US-UK-Australia defence agreement
.
Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter
curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles

RNZ News
an hour ago
- RNZ News
What's going on with Briscoes shares?
Photo: RNZ / Simon Rogers Briscoes shares have had a boost in recent days, ahead of the company moving into the top 50 stocks on the NZX share market on Monday. Falling share prices pushed The Warehouse out of the NZX50, and Briscoes will take its place. That means that passive managed funds that benchmark their funds to the NZX50 will snap up stocks in the company too. Its share price has lifted from less than $5 at the start of the month to $6.19 on Thursday. Greg Smith, head of retail at Devon Funds, said there had been a lot of pre-buying ahead of Briscoes moving up on Monday morning. He said that meant the bump in share price was unlikely to be so significant. "Going into the 50 means it is a lot more relevant to institutional managers although with Rod Duke owning nearly 80 percent of the stock, getting liquidity will be an issue." Greg Bunkall, data director at Morningstar, said the number of passive funds benchmarked to the NZX50 would not be large. "Maybe 10 or so share classes, both traditional managed funds and ETFs. There may also be some of the ESG tilted options which depending on the screen might be impacted - then there is also the multi asset funds which have the index fund as a part of the overall portfolio." Dean Anderson, founder of Kernel KiwiSaver, said it was relatively unusual for stocks to move in and out of the top 50. "Every quarter, major benchmarks like the S&P/NZX 50 undergo a rebalance, testing each company's eligibility for the index and where underperforming companies can be dropped and stronger ones added. "This self-cleansing mechanism ensures indices stay relevant-poor performers are replaced by those that have grown in value, often overtaking the bottom-ranked company in the index. "In a small market like New Zealand, though, such changes are rare, often one or two changes in a year, making them all the more noteworthy when they happen, with the last change to the S&P/NZX 50 index rebalance occurred in December 2023." He said the Briscoes share price had already lifted 28 percent since it was announced it was going into the top 50. Some investors had sold shares in The Warehouse. "Globally, this isn't unusual. Studies show that stocks added to major indices like the S&P 500 often see short-term price spikes of 3 percent to 8 percent in the days leading up to inclusion, driven by speculative buying and index fund rebalancing. "However, the scale in these spikes is falling and these gains frequently fade within weeks as the initial hype subsides - which can leave some speculative investors out of pocket." He said some active manager might be trying to game the rebalance by betting on short term movements but the risks could outweigh the rewards. Sam Stubbs, founder of Simplicity KiwiSaver, said his funds were benchmarked against the top 30. He said beyond the top 30, it could be hard to buy and sell shares. He said Briscoes' presence in the index was likely to be weighted so that only 20 percent of the company's value was reflected because of Duke's significant holding. Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

RNZ News
an hour ago
- RNZ News
Analysis: Tensions and timing test Luxon on first official China visit
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is officially welcomed with a ceremony at the Great Hall of the People, Beijing. Photo: Supplied / Dan Brunskill Analysis - Luck was not on Christopher Luxon's side for his first official trip to China. Even before the visit began, the prime minister was battling for control of the narrative, as a suite of former political leaders - including Helen Clark and Don Brash - accused the coalition of antagonising China through its embrace of the US. A clearly irritated Luxon batted away the warning - "maybe listen to fewer former politicians" - but the commentary persisted. In fact, the superpower struggle was given more prominence by events unfolding in the Middle East as Israel launched open warfare on Iran, with the US and China backing opposing sides. No surprise New Zealanders at home showed more interest in US President Donald Trump's "will-he-won't-he" contemplations than in Luxon's Shanghai sales pitch. Then came news of the Cook Islands diplomacy crisis right on the eve of Luxon's big sit-down with President Xi Jinping. Luxon had to have been cursing the timing, as his pre-meeting media conference was consumed by questions about the government's decision to suspend funding to the Pacific nation after its controversial agreements with China earlier this year. He tried valiantly to characterise New Zealand's issue as being solely with the Cook Islands government, but it was impossible to ignore China's contribution as one-half of the deals in question. Photo: Dan Brunskill That was evidenced by a pointed response from China's Foreign Ministry: that its cooperation with the Cook Islands "should not be disrupted or restrained by any third party". Such comments were not repeated, however, in the brief public parts of Luxon's high-level meetings at the Great Hall of the People. The leaders on both sides were direct in their opening remarks but not at all confrontational. Christopher Luxon has held talks with one of the world's most powerful people, Chinese President Xi Jinping, who began by acknowledging "ups and downs" in the bilateral relationship. Photo: Office of the Prime Minister President Xi Jinping acknowledged "ups and downs" in the relationship while Luxon pointedly noted the importance of "stability in our region". But both also stressed the value of their ties. Premier Li Qiang even welcomed the "candid" nature of the conversations. Certainly, there was nothing to suggest China is contemplating economic retribution, as some have suggested. Supporters of the government's approach will see that as proof its strategy is working. Its critics will caution it means only that there is still time to change course. Christopher Luxon at talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on 20 June 2025 (NZT). Photo: Office of the Prime Minister To understand China's perspective, one can look to the state media for an indication. On Thursday, state tabloid Global Times hosted a piece by Qin Sheng, associate professor at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Sheng said the China-NZ relationship could provide an example of "healthy interaction" in a world of "rising geopolitical rivalry and pervasive uncertainty". At the same time, Sheng warned that the US was "actively wooing" New Zealand to join its "small circles aimed at containing China" including AUKUS pillar two. "For New Zealand, it is important to see the broader picture and ensure that its choices align with the prevailing trend of history." From a personal perspective, the PM would've been thrilled that Xi had been "impressed" by him in their first meeting at APEC last year. Alas, that sentiment is unlikely to filter through to the NZ public in any meaningful way. All travelling media noted the paltry audience interest in the stories filed as they landed on the afternoon of the public holiday Matariki. More bad luck. Broadly speaking, business leaders in the delegation were enthused and positive about the China visit, but there were some quiet grumblings. Photo: RNZ / Craig McCulloch Two particular gripes came up multiple times in conversations. The trip's length - just two nights in Shanghai and one in Beijing - was considered too brief from a business perspective. It was hard not to notice the extra empty seats on the 757 returning home with several delegates clearly deciding to stay on in Beijing a little longer. Several businesspeople also questioned Luxon's strategy for luring back Chinese tourists and his characterisation of the issue as a "marketing challenge". When speaking to reporters, Luxon repeatedly insisted the problem was that New Zealand lacked "share of mind" in China and simply needed more promotion. The blame, he said, lay with Labour for being too slow to come out of Covid-19. Never mind that China itself had been slower. Photo: Dan Brunskill Those spoken to by RNZ suggested the more pressing concern was cost - and pointed out the coalition had hiked visa fees and tripled the International Visitor Levy. Luxon's focus will now shift to the NATO forum which is he due to attend in the Netherlands in the coming days. In his final media conference in Beijing, Luxon made clear he considered his attendance there to be quite separate from his China mission. But he must know the two are very much connected and will be viewed as such. In recent comments, NATO chief Mark Rutte has grouped China together with Russia, Iran and North Korea, as effective foes of the West. Asked about the remarks, Luxon said he had seen "no evidence" of those four powers actively working together against the West. One wonders how that "difference of opinion" - as Luxon put it - will go down when the PM arrives at the Hague. Just last week, China expert Jason Young told RNZ that one of New Zealand's biggest challenges over the next two decades would be navigating that tension between its Western security partners and its largest trading partner China. There can be no relying on luck for that. Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

RNZ News
14 hours ago
- RNZ News
China tightens internet controls with new centralised form of virtual ID
By John Liu , for CNN A man reads from his laptop as he eats, in April in Beijing, China. Photo: AFP/ Yin Gang China has mastered the craft of policing the internet, operating one of the world's most extensive online censorship and surveillance regimes. With mandatory identity checks on every online platform, it has become almost impossible for users to stay anonymous. But this rigidly moderated online environment is about to face even stricter controls with the introduction of a state-issued national internet ID. Instead of requiring individuals to submit their personal information for identity checks separately on each platform, the government now seeks to centralise the process by issuing a virtual ID that will allow users to sign in across different social media apps and websites. The rules for the new system, currently voluntary, were released in late May and will be implemented in mid-July. It aims to "protect citizens' identity information, and support the healthy and orderly development of the digital economy," according to the published rules. Experts, however, have raised concerns that the new policy will further erode already limited freedom of expression by forcing internet users to relinquish even more control to the state. Since Chinese leader Xi Jinping took power in 2012, the country has further tightened its grip on the digital space through an army of censors. Deployed around the clock, they remove posts, suspend accounts and help authorities identify critics, quashing any sign of dissent before it can gain traction. The finalised rules were announced after a proposal that was opened for public comment last summer, a typical step in China's legislative process. During the course of the public consultation over the past year, the proposal faced backlash from law professors, human rights experts and some internet users. Yet, the finalised rules remained largely similar to the draft. "This is a state-led, unified identity system capable of real-time monitoring and blocking of users," said Xiao Qiang, a research scientist studying internet freedom at the University of California, Berkeley. "It can directly erase voices it doesn't like from the internet, so it's more than just a surveillance tool - it is an infrastructure of digital totalitarianism." Control of China's vast portion of the global internet has largely been delegated to a decentralised range of different groups, with authorities relying partially on the social media platforms themselves to identify comments deemed problematic. Xiao warned that a centralised system using the internet ID could make it much easier for the government to wipe out a user's presence across multiple platforms at once. Shane Yi, a researcher at China Human Rights Defenders, an advocacy group, echoed Xiao's worries. The system gives the Chinese government expanded power to "do what they want when they see fit" on the internet, as authorities are able to track users' entire digital trail "from point zero," she said. Bus passengers use smartphones in Qingdao city, in the east of China's Shandong province, in 2019. Photo: AFP/ Zhan Hailin At home, Chinese state-run media has called the internet ID a "bullet-proof vest for personal information" and touted the system as being able to greatly reduce the risk of personal data leaks. Already, more than six million people have registered for the ID, according to Chinese state-run media Xinhua last month, out of a total estimated online population of more than one billion. A cybersecurity official from the Ministry of Public Security told Xinhua that the internet ID service was strictly "voluntary," but the government encourages various industries and sectors to integrate with it. "Its goal is to provide individuals with a secure, convenient, authoritative and efficient means of identity verification, in support of the development of the digital economy," the person was quoted as saying. But experts have also questioned how voluntary the system truly is and highlighted risks of potential data breaches, as personal information is now being collected in a centralised manner. Haochen Sun, a law professor at the University of Hong Kong, said that, although the law presents the system as voluntary, it could gradually evolve into a system which users may struggle not to opt in to. "If the government wants to promote this internet ID verification system, it can do so through various arrangements - essentially by encouraging people to adopt it, offering more conveniences in return," he said. Sun also raised concerns about the increased risks of data leaks. "A centralized, nationwide platform inherently creates a single point of vulnerability, making it an attractive target for hackers or hostile foreign actors," he said. Government data breaches have occurred around the world. One notable incident in China involved a police database containing the personal information of one billion citizens being leaked online in 2022. Although the new rules won't take effect until mid-July, hundreds of apps started trialling the internet ID since last year. The system was born out of a proposal by a police official early last year. Jia Xiaoliang, a cyber police deputy director in northeastern China who is also a delegate to China's rubber-stamp legislature, the National People's Congress, first proposed the system during the Congress' annual meeting in March 2024. As soon as the government began soliciting public comments on the proposal last July, experts and legal scholars voiced opposition. Lao Dongyan, a prominent law professor at Tsinghua University, compared the system to "installing a surveillance device on every individual's online activity" in a post on Weibo, an X-like Chinese social media platform. The post was removed soon after, and her account was subsequently suspended from posting for three months, for "violating relevant rules." In late May, when the finalised rules were unveiled after a year, almost no criticism could be found online. Xiao explained that it's not the first time authorities have spaced out the time between a proposal and its implementation, to allow critics to "blow off steam." "It's done deliberately … Many of their measures follow the same pattern, and they've proven effective," he said. - CNN