Sign of sovereignty: Prabowo skips G-7 for Russia, drawing scrutiny over Indonesia's neutrality
JAKARTA – Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto's decision to skip the recent Group of Seven (G-7) summit in favour of visiting Russia was not a blunt snub to the West, but a clear signal of his assertive and personalised approach to foreign policy, analysts said.
The move underlined Jakarta's intent to chart a more independent course and elevate its diplomatic profile, the experts noted. But they cautioned that leaning too visibly towards Moscow could cast doubt on Indonesia's longstanding commitment to neutrality, especially amid deepening global divides.
'This is a signal of sovereignty – that Indonesia does not want to be tied to one power,' Dr Hendra Manurung, a lecturer in defence diplomacy at the Indonesia Defence University, told The Straits Times.
He said the Russia visit reflects Jakarta's broader strategy of agile, multipolar diplomacy – maintaining relations with all major powers rather than aligning with one camp.
Dr Fitriani Bintang Timur, a defence analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said India offers a useful parallel.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Russian President Vladimir Putin in October 2024, but India remains part of the Quad – a grouping that also includes the US, Japan and Australia – which has condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
'I think Modi-like engagement is something that Prabowo is striving for Indonesia to broaden the country's partnership reach beyond the traditionally western region, ' she told ST.
Indonesia is not a member of the G-7 – comprising Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the US – but had been invited as a guest. Russia, once part of the grouping, was expelled in 2014 following its annexation of Crimea.
'Mr Prabowo's move to visit Russia instead of G-7 may certainly raise some eyebrows. Geopolitical signalling matters, particularly in this era of heightened competition between global powers. Indonesia, at the very least, should have sent a representative to G-7 if possible,' said Mr Pieter Pandie, an international relations researcher at the Jakarta-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
'It signals Prabowo's more personal and hands-on approach to foreign affairs, differing significantly from his predecessor (Joko Widodo) , who was mostly uninterested in foreign affairs and was comfortable in leaving it in the hands of the Foreign Ministry,' Mr Pieter told ST.
Analysts, however, noted that in May , Mr Prabowo separately hosted Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and President Emmanuel Macron of France – a G-7 member – in Jakarta, reflecting that his ties with the West remain intact. He also had a phone call with US President Donald Trump on June 12.
Beyond great power politics, the visit to Russia also showed Indonesia's quiet support for Iran and the Palestinians amid the Middle East conflict, the analysts said.
While not explicitly articulated, the visit was seen as reinforcing Indonesia's solidarity with countries critical of Israel, noted Dr Hendra.
'Besides bilateral ties, the bigger point is to show that in the current geopolitical situation, Indonesia wants to support Iran in its war with Israel, and also show support for Palestine,' he said.
Dr Fitriani added: 'I think one of the reasons why Prabowo didn't go to the G-7 was because of the concern over conflict in the Middle East as the G-7 members mostly supported Israel.'
While in Russia from June 18-20 , Mr Prabowo met Mr Putin and delivered a keynote speech at the annual St Petersburg International Economic Forum, where the Indonesian leader clarified that his decision to skip the G-7 summit was not due to disrespect, but because of an earlier commitment to attend the forum.
'So please do not read too much into the event… Indonesia, by tradition, has always been non-aligned. We respect all countries. Our foreign policy is very simple – one phrase: a thousand friends are too few, one enemy is too many. We want to be friends with everybody,' he said.
'One of the big mistakes of many countries in South-east Asia is that we tend to always follow the biggest and the most powerful power in the world.'
Mr Prabowo said the world must shift from a unipolar to a multipolar order. He also expressed respect for the leadership of Russia and China.
The two countries 'have never had double standards', he said. 'Russia and China have always defended the downtrodden...the oppressed, (they) have always fought for the justice of all peoples of the world.'
During the visit, Mr Putin described Indonesia as one of Russia's 'key partners' in the Asia-Pacific and reaffirmed support for Jakarta's full membership in the Brics grouping, which took effect earlier this year.
The grouping, which also comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, aims to strengthen cooperation among emerging economies and amplify the influence of the Global South.
Mr Prabowo and Mr Putin signed a declaration on strategic partnership, formalising closer ties. Russia offered to boost oil and liquefied natural gas supplies to Indonesia. A 2 billion euro (S$2.97 billion) investment fund was also announced between Indonesia's sovereign wealth fund Danantara and the Russian Direct Investment Fund.
Dr Fitriani noted that Mr Prabowo visited Beijing in November 2024 and signed deals worth about US$10 billion (S$12.87 billion) , demonstrating his willingness to engage with countries based on economic interests.'This shows a pattern of Prabowo following the money,' she said.
One notable offer from Russia was in nuclear cooperation. 'We are open to cooperation with Indonesian partners in the nuclear field. We also wish to implement peaceful nuclear projects,' including in healthcare, agriculture and training of human resources, Mr Putin said in a joint statement after his meeting with Mr Prabowo on June 19.
Indonesia plans to add nuclear power to its energy mix, with a small-scale plant slated to begin operations by 2032 as part of its push towards net-zero emissions. The Prabowo administration has also announced plans to open the door to foreign investors to help develop 75 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity over the next 14 years.
Analysts said Russia's offer reflects the country's intent to deepen its footprint in South-east Asia and aligns with Mr Prabowo's push for energy resilience.
Dr Hendra noted that while Russia has shown interest in nuclear cooperation, Indonesia must proceed cautiously as accepting such an offer could unsettle its neighbours.
'Russia made such an offer to show it wants to increase its presence in South-east Asia, but any real development depends on formal agreements. For now, it's likely a no,' he said.
Mr Pieter called the proposal 'certainly significant' but added that 'how it will play out concretely is difficult to gauge', adding that Indonesia must tread carefully in dealing with major powers to avoid appearing biased towards any side.
Dr Fitriani warned that nuclear cooperation remains politically sensitive. 'Indonesia doesn't want to be the next Iran that the world fears for its lack of transparency in managing nuclear energy capabilities,' she said.
Still, Mr Prabowo's engagement with Russia – and his silence on Ukraine – could risk undermining Jakarta's neutrality in the eyes of Western partners.
Mr Pieter said Mr Prabowo's visit was a win for Russia, as it signalled that some countries are still willing to engage with Moscow despite Western sanctions and condemnation over its invasion of Ukraine.
'Indonesia has always emphasised its commitment to international law, territorial integrity, and sovereignty. By being seen as tilting to Moscow, some may question Indonesia's commitment to those values and norms,' he added.
Dr Fitriani noted that 'Mr Prabowo risked signalling tacit approval or at least indifference towards Russia's invasion of Ukraine.'
She said the Indonesian leader should now seek to rebalance ties, including by visiting G-7 countries or hosting international meetings that affirm Indonesia's commitment to global norms.
'President Prabowo needs to show that he leads Indonesia based on values,' she added.
Arlina Arshad is The Straits Times' Indonesia bureau chief. She is a Singaporean who has been living and working in Indonesia as a journalist for more than 15 years.
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