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Middlesbrough in advanced talks with Rob Edwards to replace Michael Carrick

Middlesbrough in advanced talks with Rob Edwards to replace Michael Carrick

New York Times4 days ago

Former Luton Town head coach Rob Edwards is in advanced discussions to become the next Middlesbrough manager.
There is increasing expectation on Teesside that the 42-year-old will be named as Michael Carrick's successor at the Riverside Stadium.
Edwards, who left Luton in January, will be expected to re-energise the team and mount a Premier League promotion challenge.
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Edwards was in charge of Luton for Middlesbrough's biggest home win of last season – also Luton's heaviest defeat – and remained at the helm for another two months after the 5-1 loss to Carrick's side.
But he left Kenilworth Road midway through a hugely frustrating campaign, which ultimately ended in relegation to League One under his successor, Matt Bloomfield.
It was a second consecutive relegation for Luton, following their demotion from the Premier League in 2023-24.
But it is Edwards' achievement of overseeing Luton's unforeseen promotion to the Premier League via a Wembley play-off victory over Coventry City in 2023 that is likely to have appealed to Middlesbrough's owner-chairman Steve Gibson and the club's sporting director Kieran Scott – as they seek a return to the top flight after eight straight seasons in the Championship.
Scott and Edwards know each other from Wolves, where Edwards began his coaching career with the Under-18s. Edwards was a contender for the Middlesbrough post when Carrick was appointed in October 2022.
Edwards took the Luton job a month later and their promotion the following May, plus their spirited efforts in the top flight despite their economic disadvantage, saw his stock rise.
He had previously led Forest Green Rovers from League Two to League One in 2021-22 in his first job in the Football League. Watford then poached Edwards, where he only lasted four months.
Carrick was dismissed a fortnight ago at the end of his second full season, after the north-east outfit finished four points outside the Championship play-offs places, in 10th, after winning just one of their final six matches of the campaign.
The former Manchester United midfielder led Middlesbrough into the play-offs in his first season in charge but they have narrowly missed out on a top-six finish in the previous two seasons.
Middlesbrough have not been in the Premier League since 2017.

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It might seem quaint to think now but for most of the time PSR has been in place, clubs have had few compliance worries. The rules were introduced ahead of the 2013-14 season but clubs were not first assessed until 2015-16, that being the first year in which the league could pore over three years of figures. Pre-tax results are not synonymous with a club's PSR profit or loss, the latter usually being more positive because of those 'good' costs clubs can deduct, but even just considering pre-tax figures shows a stark shift in recent years. In the first four years of assessment, only one club exceeded £105m in rolling three-year losses. That was Aston Villa in 2015-16, and their £112.5m loss over the previous three seasons was sufficiently low that, after deductions, they easily came in under the maximum loss limit. Driven by an even bigger new TV deal in 2016, and with some financial constraints now in place, the Premier League as a whole was wildly profitable for a brief spell. In two seasons between 2016 and 2018 the league's clubs posted combined pre-tax profits of £1.036bn. Results were so positive that even when the pandemic arrived in 2020, only two clubs' rolling three-year loss exceeded £105m. Advertisement The Premier League waived PSR assessments that year, and allowed clubs to average losses across 2019-20 and 2020-21 in order to account for the impact Covid had on finances. Yet even that saw losses balloon; half of the division's pre-tax losses to the end of 2020-21 exceeded £105m over the assessment period, even after that averaging. Since then, over the past three seasons for which we have figures, 31 out of 60 clubs have generated pre-tax losses of greater than £105m across their respective PSR cycles. It is for that reason PSR has become so prominent. Where in the first half-decade of its presence clubs were routinely not touching the upper loss limit, now around half the league exceeds it before any deductions are taken into account. Plainly, the number then breaching after deductions remains pretty low — but it is quite clear clubs are having to find more ways to come in under the limit than previously. One of the key elements of the government's quizzing of Scudamore in 2012 was the continued growth of player wages. Initially, the new rules seemed to have the effect of stemming such growth. From 2012-13 to the season after, the first year where clubs needed to consider PSR restraints, combined wages as a percentage of turnover dropped dramatically, from 69.6 per cent to 58 per cent. What followed was indicative of a division not really departing from its past. Premier League wages to turnover did drop as low as 54.7 per cent in 2016-17, but that was the first year of a new TV deal, where revenue zoomed ahead before wages could catch up. Across the decade, club wages have steadily climbed, even as incomes fell during the pandemic and took time to recover. Obviously, the pandemic waylaid finances in a manner no one expected, but even in this post-Covid period the share of money spent on staff costs is higher than when PSR was first introduced. In 2022-23, Premier League clubs spent more than £4bn on wages, or 66.7 per cent of their collective revenues. Interestingly, staff costs stagnated last year, reducing wages to turnover to 63.8 per cent. Yet that still means Premier League clubs were spending around six per cent more of their turnover on wages in 2024 than in 2014. Correspondingly, losses have increased, and more clubs are at risk of breaching PSR limits. To combat those increased losses, and to do so quickly, clubs have a slim arsenal of weapons. It is why selling players has become the primary choice. Profits on sales are recognised at the point of sale. More traditional revenues have to be recognised over longer periods; for example, income from a new sponsor is recorded over the span of the commercial contract, rather than simply upon agreeing the deal. Advertisement Shifting a player at the end of June and recognising an immediate benefit is possible, whereas suddenly banking a huge slug of income — the ongoing FIFA Club World Cup notwithstanding — is rather harder to manufacture. Clubs have, perhaps naturally, linked their one avenue of recourse to the existing rules framework. As Maresca outlined last August, there is a feeling the rules leave them with no option but to sell players. That is certainly true by the time they get to their accounting deadlines, but it rather ignores how those losses built up in the first place. Had clubs displayed better cost control over the years, principally around player wages and transfer fees (which have themselves blown up over the past decade), they would likely not be in the position of having to reduce losses through selling players they would rather keep. The argument often put forward when wage constraints are mentioned is that it will put English clubs at a competitive disadvantage abroad. It is a bit of a flimsy one when you consider hardly any European clubs can afford to spend as much as English clubs do. In 2023-24, six of the 10 highest wage payers in Europe were from England, with only Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid, Barcelona (who you suspect would welcome an end to the wages arms race) and Bayern Munich interrupting proceedings. Of the top 20, nine clubs were English. A separate view is that PSR rules are now outdated. After all, the £105m upper loss limit introduced in 2013 has not budged since, despite the costs of buying and employing players skyrocketing. The logic employed here is a higher loss limit is only right, to bring rules into line with a much-changed financial landscape. Various commentators have suggested as much, and Aston Villa actually proposed a £30m rise in the loss limit at a Premier League meeting last year. It was not voted through, despite the feeling in some quarters that clubs should be allowed to lose more money because the twin costs of wages and transfer fees have increased far beyond where they sat in 2013. Advertisement Yet that rather ignores the fact inflation has occurred on the income side too. Premier League revenues have increased by 95 per cent between 2013-14 and 2023-24, with a further rise imminent. This coming season marks the first year of a new broadcast rights cycle in which TV income has once again soared to new heights, with the 2025-28 cycle generating an estimated 17 per cent more than 2022-25. Based on past evidence, there is little to suggest clubs would not simply push themselves right up against the upper limit, wherever it may fall. All of this also ignores the fact even allowing clubs to lose an 'acceptable' amount of money in the first place rather stands at odds with the very notion of 'profit and sustainability'. One area where clubs and proponents of a higher loss limit might have better supporting evidence is in how it is costing more and more to run a football club, or any business. The UK has experienced high inflation in recent years, so general running costs have increased. Indeed, when explaining the logic behind the proposed rise to The Telegraph, Villa's then-president of business operations, Chris Heck, said, 'When something doesn't evolve in 11 years and with the cost of living alone, you scratch your head." Clubs are largely left with little way to combat such rises, save for making unpopular decisions like raising ticket prices and shifting the costs onto fans. The ongoing transfer merry-go-round can, you could argue, be directly linked to wider inflation. Between the first season when clubs had to consider PSR rules in 2013 and the end of the decade, 'other' expenses hovered around 20 per cent of revenues. The proportion tumbled as grounds were shuttered during the pandemic, but has leapt since, reflective of the wider economic environment. Such costs comprised a shade under a quarter of club revenues last year. There is an argument to make that loss limits should be adjusted in line with those costs, but to suggest they are the primary driver of increased losses overall looks a limited reading of things. Those other expenses as a proportion of turnover went from 19.6 per cent to 24.3 per cent between 2014 and 2024, a rise of 4.7 per cent. That is still less than the rise in wages as a proportion of turnover (5.8 per cent), and well below the 10.5 per cent difference seen in transfer fee amortisation costs, which have grown from 16.9 per cent of revenues to 27.4 per cent across the same period. The status quo will remain for at least another year. A mooted shift to mirroring UEFA's updated financial rules, namely a 'squad-cost ratio' that seeks to limit football-related spending, is still to be agreed upon, so the Premier League's existing PSR rules will operate across 2025-26. A 'shadow' squad-cost regime will remain in the background, without fear of non-compliance. Advertisement The likelihood is the Premier League's PSR rules will change, and it is probable they will do so in a way that shifts clubs away from having to sell players as a primary tool in the fight to comply. UEFA's squad-cost rule is assessed annually and, while player profits are included in the calculation, they are taken over the past three seasons and pro-rated to 12 months, lessening the impact of big, one-off sales. What's more, UEFA looks askance at clubs engaging in swap-like deals, further limiting the appeal of selling to comply. When PSR was introduced in England over a decade ago, it was unlikely the rules' framers intended the events of recent years. Left up against their loss limits, an increasing number of clubs have turned to selling players, even if there is no sporting desire to do so. To that end, it is easy to argue PSR will always encourage the horse-trading we are becoming increasingly accustomed to. Yet to blame the rules on their own is short-sighted. Premier League clubs over the past 12 years have enjoyed greater riches than ever before yet continue to lose huge sums, principally because of their refusal to reduce spending on player wages and transfers. Last year's wage stagnation might actually be evidence of PSR rules, and what happens when you break them, having the effect of constraining wage growth, though time will tell. The rules, based as they are on limiting losses, encourage player sales for those in fear of a breach. But a deeper issue lies in how clubs arrived at that point in the first place. (Top photos: Getty Images)

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