What Trump must decide in his two week pause on the Israel-Iran conflict
Britain, France, Germany and the European Union are all rushing their foreign ministers to Geneva for talks with Iran in the desperate attempt to give peace a chance. But it is not clear that peace now is the best option.
A week into Israel's bombardment of Iran, and its assassination of its top nuclear scientists and securocrats, the Islamic State has tightened its grip – and the nuclear facilities half a mile underground in Fordow remain intact.
If Iran is brought back to the negotiating table at Geneva, whatever it says, the last week has shown that the only future for the survival of the current rulers of Tehran is to build a nuclear weapon.
From the Israeli and American perspective, they may feel the only way to ensure this doesn't happen is to double down on the targeting of Iran and change the regime.
On top of that Russia, a close ally of Tehran and part of a Fearsome Foursome that includes North Korea and China, will see diplomacy now as an opportunity to stop regime change and reinforce its waning influence in the Middle East.
Before the planned Geneva meeting, David Lammy said: 'We are determined that Iran must never have a nuclear weapon.'
Trying to slow the imminent sense of global war, Donald Trump has said that he's pausing any decision on backing Israel for a couple of weeks because he wants to give diplomacy a chance.
In terms of strikes, the US has the only weapon that could, conceivably, destroy the Fordow nuclear programme 18 miles north of the central Iranian city of Qom half a mile under ground: the GBU-57/B, is a MOP – Massive Ordinance Penetrator.
It weighs 13.6 tonnes, is 6.2m long but only 0.8m wide and carries about 2.5 tonnes of explosive. It can penetrate 60m of rock before exploding as it hits the ground like a needle travelling at around double the speed of sound.
It would take several MOPs to clear up Fordow and wipe away Iran's nuclear programme – with no guarantee of a clean slate.
If the Iranian government that took power after the 1979 revolution - and maintains control through a vast network of military and security services underpinned by the Basij citizen's militia - survived this assault, it would be surprising if it did not secretly re-start building nukes to ensure that next time Israel thinks twice about bombing the capital and killings Iran's commanders.
'A window now exists within the next two weeks to achieve a diplomatic solution,' said Mr Lammy. 'Now is the time to put a stop to the grave scenes in the Middle East and prevent a regional escalation that would benefit no one."
It might, though.
Assuming that Trump's advisers have somehow got around the bizarre characters he has put in charge of defence, Pete Hegseth, and the intelligence services, Tulsi Gabbard, they will be helping him wrestle with a conundrum.
Should America go back into the business of regime change – which failed horribly in Iran and Afghanistan and left both nations ruined, riddled with extremism, and deeply anti-American?
In theory, the US could join the Israeli effort at low physical risk to pilots, bomb Fordow, break the back of the regime and stand back to watch Iranians themselves rise against their oppressors.
That's what Benjamin Netanyahu would like.
Or should the US stay back – give Israel every help in defending itself against Iranian counter attacks – and hope that ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who may be on an Israeli kill list, reckons that the long-term survival of his regime may depend on not returning to developing nuclear weapons.
The gamble for the US is that the Iranian government will still harbour the dream of annihilating Israel and, unless it agrees to a 100 per cent intrusive inspection programme by nuclear experts 24/7, it can never be trusted not to clamber back onto a horse of the apocalypse.
Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araqchi is expected to join the European talks in Geneva. They are an opportunity to shoulder the US out of talks, which the Trump administration hoped would persuade Tehran to give up its nuclear programme.
But he has also signalled that while Israel continues to bombard his country, Iran won't get involved in diplomacy.
This is a moment that Russia can get back in the game. Moscow and Tehran are military bedfellows, share intelligence, missile technology, and Russia is Iran's civilian nuclear power contractor.
Vladimir Putin lost his most valuable military foothold in the west, the port at Tartus when Bashar al Assad, Syria's dictator, fled to safety in Moscow. Assad was also Iran's most important regional client and it also controls Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iraq.
Putin needs to get back in the game and if he can bring the Iranians to the table he can stymie US and Israeli hopes for regime change by making it impossible for American to join the bombing campaign while talks about peace are going on.
A third option for all is to jaw-jaw while really giving Israel's war a chance.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Daily Mail
33 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
Moment terrified Brits watch from their Cyprus hotel balconies as Iranian missiles rain down on Israel 250 miles across the Mediterranean
This is the surreal moment British revellers were left stunned as they spotted ballistic missiles flying over the sky while they partied in Ayia Napa amid the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict. Bizarre footage taken by British tourists from a balcony in the Cypriot party spot shows the long-range missiles soaring over the sky, leaving the holidaymakers stunned. One man is heard saying: 'That is not a firework', while a female asks 'are we going to die?' as music plays in the background. The clip has racked over two million views on TikTok. Another video shared by a Brit in Cyprus showed a barrage of projectiles illuminating the night sky as they headed for Israel. The caption read: 'You're having a nice drink in Cyprus and then you see Iranian missiles heading towards Israel.' When asked by a viewer if she was in danger, the tourist said: 'No need to worry, you just see it from afar'. In Cyprus, locals and tourists have been left stunned at the spectacle of missiles jetting over the island this week, with several reportedly flocking to rooftops and beachfront bars to watch. Speaking to Cypriot newsoutlet Ynet, a Finnish tourist said: 'It's crazy—we can see everything from here. 'People just stand on balconies and the boardwalk and watch the missiles and intercepts. What you're going through over there is terrible. We hope it ends soon.' The video comes as the Middle Eastern conflict reached a breaking point last week when Israel launched a series of blistering attacks on Iranian soil, targeting the country's nuclear infrastructure, as well as densely populated parts of cities. Iran responded by launching a wave of retaliatory missile strikes on Israel. Revellers at a Lebanese pool party this week also shared clips of Iranian missiles flying over to hit Israeli targets. A video showed partygoers in a large swimming pool dancing, clapping and cheering as long-range missiles flew off to Israel in the distance. The celebrations carried on, even as the missiles slammed into Israeli territory. This was just the latest example of revelry in Lebanon in the wake of the Israel-Iran conflict. But while much of the world watched in horror as the two Middle Eastern nations duked it out, scenes across Lebanon, which shares its southern border with Israel, were far different. Civilians react as Israeli emergency services arrive at the site of an Iranian missile attack in Ramat Gan in central Israel near Tel Aviv Missiles can be spotted in other countries due to their high altitude and the combustion trail they leave behind. Their powerful engines leave bright trails that are especially visible at night. Iranian missiles hit a major hospital in southern Israel on Thursday and struck residential buildings in Tel Aviv, wounding 240 people ad causing extensive damage. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz blamed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and said the military 'has been instructed and knows that in order to achieve all of its goals, this man absolutely should not continue to exist.' Israel, meanwhile, carried out strikes on Iran's Arak heavy water reactor, its latest attack on Iran's sprawling nuclear program. Iranian state television said there was 'no radiation danger whatsoever' and that the facility had been evacuated before the attack. British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said the 'situation in the Middle East remains perilous,' after meeting Thursday at the White House with his U.S. counterpart, Marco Rubio, and presidential envoy Steve Witkoff. 'We are determined that Iran must never have a nuclear weapon,' Lammy wrote in a post on X. 'We discussed how a deal could avoid a deepening conflict. A window now exists within the next two weeks to achieve a diplomatic solution,' he added.
Telegraph
40 minutes ago
- Telegraph
BBC axes new Gaza film
The BBC has pulled a Gaza documentary after its producer took aim at director-general Tim Davie. The broadcaster was forced to apologise in February after being accused of airing a 'propaganda' film, which contained contributions from the son of a leading Hamas minister. BBC bosses have now dropped another planned Gaza film. The decision came after the head of Basement Films, the film's production company, branded Mr Davie a 'PR person' who could not be trusted to make editorial decisions. The BBC had initially delayed the release of the film, Gaza: Doctors Under Attack, while it conducted a review into the disastrous release of its previous Gaza documentary. Ben de Pear, the Basement Films boss, claimed that this delay was decided from a 'PR defensive point of view, rather than a journalistic one', and that the BBC 'stymied' journalists. He had been speaking at the Sheffield DocFest on Thursday. The BBC's decision also came after Ramita Navai, the documentary's director, also made comments on the Today programme. She said during the segment that 'Israel has become a rogue state that's committing war crimes and ethnic cleansing and mass-murdering Palestinians '. It is understood that this partisan view from the filmmaker may have compromised the documentary being presented as an impartial production. A statement from the BBC released on Friday said: 'For some weeks, the BBC has been working with Basement Films to find a way to tell the stories of these doctors on our platforms. 'Yesterday [Thursday], it became apparent that we have reached the end of the road with these discussions.' The BBC added that 'broadcasting this material risked creating a perception of partiality that would not meet the high standards that the public rightly expect of the BBC'. The release of Gaza: Doctors Under Attack had been paused following outrage over the BBC's decision to air the previous film, Gaza: How to Survive a Warzone, a documentary created by production company Hoyo. The broadcaster removed the film from iPlayer after days of criticism over its featuring of children linked to Hamas. The BBC also issued an apology after it was revealed that a major contributor to the programme was the son of Ayman Alyazouri, a Hamas minister. This link was not disclosed to viewers. The BBC said it was not aware of the Hamas link, while Hoyo later claimed the BBC was aware. The BBC faced pressure to release the delayed documentary about doctors in Gaza, and Mr Davie was urged to air the film in an open letter signed by 600 signatories, including Harriet Walter, Miriam Margolyes, Maxine Peake and Juliet Stevenson. They claimed the delay was ' political suppression '. It is understood that no such concerns have been raised about Gaza: Doctors Under Attack, and the BBC said: 'We want to thank the doctors and contributors, and we are sorry we could not tell their stories. The BBC will continue to cover events in Gaza impartially.' The rights to the film will now revert back to Basement Films, which will be free to screen the feature.
The Independent
an hour ago
- The Independent
Emmett Till memorial in Mississippi could be removed as part of DOGE-recommended $1 billion cuts to national parks
Moves made by Donald Trump 's administration could pave the way for the removal of a national monument honoring Emmett Till, an icon of the civil rights movement, risking a public outcry. Trump's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), formerly led by tech boss Elon Musk, has recommended slashing the budget of the National Park Service by nearly $1 billion. Meanwhile, a Justice Department opinion released earlier this month grants presidents the right to revoke the status of national monuments for the first time since the 1930s. Together, the two steps could mean the demise of the Till memorial as part of Trump's drive to eradicate diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) values from public institutions, a culture war that has seen him attack the Smithsonian Museum in Washington, D.C., for promoting 'improper, divisive or anti-American ideology' and attempt to remould the Kennedy Center according to his own tastes, among other targets. 'We are seeing this effort to erase and reverse history and historic preservation,' historian Alan Spears, senior director of cultural resources and government affairs for the National Parks Conservation Association, told CBS News. 'This is turning quickly into a dream deferred.' Till, a Black Chicagoan, was just 14 when he was kidnapped in Mississippi on the night of August 28, 1955, by two white men who accused him of behaving disrespectfully towards a white woman, Carolyn Bryant, in her grocery store earlier in the day as he visited family in the town of Money. The assailants were Bryant's husband, Roy, and his half-brother, John W Milam, who beat, tortured, and eventually murdered Till, dumping his body in the Tallahatchie River, from which it was recovered three days later. He was buried in Chicago, with his mother, Mamie, insisting on an open casket funeral while his killers went on to be acquitted by an all-white jury. Remembered as a martyr to racial prejudice in America by the civil rights marchers of the 1960s and immortalised in song by Bob Dylan, Till was finally awarded a monument dedicated to his memory and that of his mother by Joe Biden in 2023. The Emmett Till and Mamie Till-Mobley National Monument covers three sites: Graball Landing in Mississippi, where Emmett's body was found; Sumner in the same state, where Bryant and Miliam were tried in the local courthouse; and Chicago's Roberts Temple Church of God in Christ in Illinois, where the boy's funeral service was held. Spears and his colleagues were influential voices in seeking federal protection for those sites, which was granted by Biden and could now be stripped away by Trump. 'Let's make sure it doesn't happen to anybody else's son ever again,' the historian said in appealing for their upkeep. He likened the proposed DOGE cuts to the National Parks Service to 'amputating an arm for a hangnail.' Former National Park Service director Chuck Sams, who left his role earlier this year, said the loss of the Till memorial would be 'very sad and egregious.' 'People don't like to look at their past when it shows a negative light of who we are, and I can understand that nobody likes to look at their own personal past that may have a negative light, but we also know that in order to learn from our own history, we also have to learn from our past mistakes,' Sams said. 'And we, as Americans, have never been actually scared to do so, and I don't think we should be now. We look at our past, and we know that from our past mistakes that we have become stronger.' Other sites reportedly being considered for removal include the Chuckwalla and Sattitla Highlands national monuments in California, and the Baaj Nwaavjo I'tah Kukveni-Ancestral Footprints of the Grand Canyon National Monument in Arizona, the latter due to its reputed uranium resources. White House spokesperson Anne Kelly responded to the threat to the monuments in a statement in which she said: 'Under President Trump's leadership, [Interior] Secretary [Doug] Burgum is keeping our parks ready for peak season, ensuring they are in pristine condition for visitors, and restoring truth and sanity to depictions of American history in line with the president's executive order. 'The president is simultaneously following through on his promise to 'Drill, Baby, Drill' and restore American energy dominance.'
