Retail sales fell 0.9% in May, worse than expected as consumers pulled back
Consumers spending pulled back sharply in May, weighed by declining gas sales and a looming unease over where the economy is headed, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.
Retail sales declined 0.9%, even more than the 0.6% drop expected from the Dow Jones consensus. The decline reversed a 0.1% loss in April and came at a time of unease over tariffs and geopolitical tensions.
Excluding autos, sales fell 0.3%, also worse than the estimate for a gain of 0.1%.
However, excluding a series of items such as auto dealers, building materials suppliers, gas stations and others, sales increased 0.4%. That reading, known as the control group, is what the department uses when calculating gross domestic product.
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Forbes
an hour ago
- Forbes
It's Not The 1990's Gulf War
3 men reading local DAILY GAZETTE newspaper w. headline: WAR!, at Friendship House restaurant, on ... More morning after Operation Desert Storm began. (Photo by) The misdirection before the start of the weekend gave some of us optimists hope that the US would not soon bomb Iran's nuclear sites. If you did not check the news Saturday you were saved from wondering what might happen to the financial markets until Sunday morning. This had me going back into my memory banks and I first focused on the summer of 1990. The economy had been weakening in 1989-1990 in reaction to a restrictive monetary policy used to reduce inflation. There were many of other factors (more on the 1990 recession) as it was a global recession that impacted many countries more than the US. Dow Industrials 1990 The start of the 1990 Gulf War on August 2nd, 1990 is noted on the chart of the Dow Jones Industrials Average. I was also writing market commentary at the time and in early July I noticed bullish signs in the crude oil and gold futures as the Herrick Payoff Index had indicated that the money flow, as well as the volume, was positive. By the time of the invasion, I wondered if Saddam was a buyer in these two markets. The start and end of a recession are determined with a lag by the National Bureau of Economic Research. For example, the 1990 recession start date was determined in April 1991. The Dow Industrials made its low in October 1990 and by the time the Gulf War ended on February 28, 1992, the Dow was already up 20% from the lows. The bullish sentiment hit its lowest point in October 1990 which correlated with similar low readings during the stock market's decline in 2022 as well as the April 2025 lows. It is important to understand that I am not currently expecting a similar reaction in 2025 as the state of the economy as well as the supply-demand for crude oil is much different now than it was in 1990. The exchanges are also much different. In July 1990 crude oil rose from about $19 per barrel to over $40 by October. Crude Oil Weekly The weekly chart shows the surge in crude oil prices in the past two weeks as it has risen from $64.90 to $77.60 per barrel. The weekly starc+band is at $77.39 with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement resistance at $83.93. This is calculated from the June 2022 high at $130.50. The 38.2% level is a reasonable upside target for the week ahead with the 50% retracement resistance at $92.82. There is long-term chart resistance at $97.19, line a. The on-balance volume moved above its WMA last week and has major resistance at line b. One of the indicators that I have found to be the most valuable for commodities is the Herrick Payoff Index developed by the late John Herrick. It uses volume, open interest, and price action to determine money flow. The HPI rose above its WMA at the end of May and surged sharply above the zero line three weeks ago. Markets For the week the increased tensions added more uncertainty which always makes the markets nervous. The Dow Jones Transportation Average was up 0.5% followed by a 0.4% gain by the iShares Russell 2000 (IWM). Both the NDX 100 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were unchanged while the S&P 500 was down 0.2%. On a year-to-date basis, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is up 28.1% as the weekly HPI has indicated positive money flow in the gold futures since October 2023. The Dow Jones Transportation Average is down 7.1%. For the week on the NYSE, there were 1376 advancing issues and 1433 declining issues. SPY Weekly The Spyder Trust (SPY) has closed slightly lower for the past two weeks but is still up over 1% for June. The all-time high is at $613.23 (line a) with the yearly R1 at $638.09 and the weekly starc+ band at $645.41. The rising 20-week EMA at $577.26 is not consistent with a significant top. It would take a weekly close below the yearly pivot at $647.94 to turn the yearly pivot trend negative. The weekly S&P 500 A/D line has formed slightly lower highs over the past six weeks but it is still above its strongly rising WMA. It has already made new highs which does project new highs also for the SPY. The daily S&P 500 A/D is still below its MA as is the NYSE Stocks Only A/D while the NYSE All A/D line is still above its MA. For the last two days of the week, there were more New Highs than New Lows on the NYSE. Invesco QQQ Trust The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) closed at $526.67 just 2.5% below the all-time high at $540.81. The yearly R1 is at $572.72 with the weekly starc+ band at $577.01. There is minor support initially in the $512-$516 area with strong support at $502.32 and the rising 20-week EMA. The NDX100 A/D line made another new high three weeks ago and is well above its rising WMA. The weekly relative performance RS is holding above its WMA and the resistance at line c. This indicates that QQQ is still leading the SPY and should continue to outperform. Over the past three months, QQQ is up 9.9% while SPY is up 5.4%. Bond Yields In 1990, the 10-year T-Note yield was in a well-defined long-term downtrend but had consolidated for a few months during the recession but then continued to drop. The current MACD analysis and last week's lower close d9es favor lower yields which is also true for the 2-year yield chart. Both should be favored by US and overseas investors as they look for safety. The weekly chart of the 30-year T-Bond yield shows the close above 5% and the 18-month resistance, line a. The initial upside targets from the breakout are in the 5.4-5.6% area. The week MACDs will point to higher yields with another close above 5%. The stock market is likely to be hit with some selling pressure on Monday but I would not expect to see more than a 1-2% pullback unless Iran takes action to block the shipping of oil. We could see 1-2 weeks of sideways to lower trading but the support at the 20-week EMAs should hold.
Yahoo
a day ago
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Is Everest Group Stock Underperforming the Dow?
With a market cap of $14.2 billion, Everest Group, Ltd. (EG) is a global provider of reinsurance and insurance solutions through its Insurance and Reinsurance segments. The company offers a broad range of property and casualty products, including treaty and facultative reinsurance, as well as specialty lines such as catastrophe, marine, aviation, and mortgage reinsurance. Companies worth more than $10 billion are generally labeled as 'large-cap' stocks and Everest Group fits this criterion perfectly. The company operates across the United States, Europe, and internationally, serving clients through brokers and direct channels. 3 ETFs with Dividend Yields of 12% or Higher for Your Income Portfolio Warren Buffett Famously Warned to 'Make Money While You Sleep' or 'You Will Work Until You Die': 5 Stocks To Invest Like Buffett Unusually Active Put Options Signal Long Straddle Opportunity After Zoetis Downgrade Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! Shares of the Hamilton, Bermuda-based company have declined 18.3% from its 52-week high of $407.30. Over the past three months, its shares have decreased 7.4%, underperforming the broader Dow Jones Industrials Average's ($DOWI) 1.4% rise during the same period. Longer term, EG stock is down 8.2% on a YTD basis, a steeper drop than DOWI's marginal decline. Moreover, shares of Everest Group have dipped 11.8% over the past 52 weeks, compared to DOWI's 8.6% increase over the same time frame. Despite a few fluctuations, the stock has been trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages since late October last year. Shares of Everest Group tumbled nearly 6% following its Q1 2025 results on Apr. 30 due to a steep 71% drop in net income to $210 million ($4.90 per share). The company posted a significant pre-tax catastrophe loss of $472 million, primarily due to California wildfires, which contributed to a deteriorated combined ratio of 102.7%. Both adjusted EPS of $6.45 and revenue of $4.3 billion missed Wall Street expectations. EG stock has performed weaker than its rival, SiriusPoint Ltd. (SPNT). SPNT stock has returned 17.9% YTD and 53.6% over the past 52 weeks. Despite the stock's underperformance, analysts remain moderately optimistic about its prospects. The stock has a consensus rating of 'Moderate Buy' from 13 analysts in coverage, and as of writing, EG is trading below the mean price target of $391.75. On the date of publication, Sohini Mondal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
Yahoo
a day ago
- Yahoo
Hershey (HSY) Advances While Market Declines: Some Information for Investors
In the latest close session, Hershey (HSY) was up +1.02% at $171.45. The stock's performance was ahead of the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.22%. Elsewhere, the Dow saw an upswing of 0.08%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq depreciated by 0.51%. The chocolate bar and candy maker's stock has climbed by 10.31% in the past month, exceeding the Consumer Staples sector's loss of 1.34% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.45%. Market participants will be closely following the financial results of Hershey in its upcoming release. The company's upcoming EPS is projected at $0.99, signifying a 22.05% drop compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Simultaneously, our latest consensus estimate expects the revenue to be $2.49 billion, showing a 20.03% escalation compared to the year-ago quarter. Regarding the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $5.97 per share and revenue of $11.47 billion, indicating changes of -36.29% and +2.39%, respectively, compared to the previous year. Investors should also note any recent changes to analyst estimates for Hershey. Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. Hence, positive alterations in estimates signify analyst optimism regarding the business and profitability. Our research suggests that these changes in estimates have a direct relationship with upcoming stock price performance. To exploit this, we've formed the Zacks Rank, a quantitative model that includes these estimate changes and presents a viable rating system. The Zacks Rank system, ranging from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), possesses a remarkable history of outdoing, externally audited, with #1 stocks returning an average annual gain of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, there's been a 0.29% fall in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. Hershey presently features a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold). In terms of valuation, Hershey is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 28.42. This expresses a premium compared to the average Forward P/E of 22.65 of its industry. We can additionally observe that HSY currently boasts a PEG ratio of 6.17. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. Food - Confectionery stocks are, on average, holding a PEG ratio of 4.37 based on yesterday's closing prices. The Food - Confectionery industry is part of the Consumer Staples sector. This industry, currently bearing a Zacks Industry Rank of 97, finds itself in the top 40% echelons of all 250+ industries. The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the strength of our separate industry groups by calculating the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks contained within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1. Keep in mind to rely on to watch all these stock-impacting metrics, and more, in the succeeding trading sessions. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Hershey Company (The) (HSY) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research
