Early Signs The Iran War Is Triggering Another Mideast Refugee Crisis

The United Nations has warned that the Iran-Israel war could trigger a new refugee crisis in the Middle East, saying that if things keep escalating and people flea, there is no quick way back to their home countries.
UNHCR, the UN's refugee agency, says ratcheting tit-for-tat attacks are already triggering population movements in both countries, and that this could easily slide into a worse crisis.
Iran has already seen many of its citizens cross into other countries, at a moment much of Tehran's streets have remained largely empty on fear of Israeli warplanes, which have control of skies over Western Iran.
And Iranian ballistic and hypersonic missile attacks on Israel have caused people to seek a way out of the country, whether air, sea, or land borders.
'This region has already endured more than its share of war, loss and displacement. We cannot allow another refugee crisis to take root,' says Filippo Grandi, the UN high commissioner for refugees, in a statement issued Saturday.
'The time to de-escalate is right now. Once people are forced to flee, there's no quick way back — and all too often, the consequences last for generations,' Grandi added.
According to more from the newly published UN statement:
As highlighted in our Global Trends 2024 Report last week, Iran is the largest refugee-hosting country in the world with some 3.5 million refugees, mainly from Afghanistan. If the conflict persists, existing refugee populations would also face renewed uncertainty and yet more hardship.
UNHCR is present in Iran, Israel and many neighboring countries, and is arranging emergency humanitarian relief supplies in different locations, readying a response in case needed.
This fact of such a large Afghan refugee population inside Iran is cause for deep concern, amid fears that the 2015 European crisis could be repeated.
At that time, the Syria proxy war was at its height of death and destruction, and the Libyan government had a few years prior been overthrown. Still, US and European officials don't tend to do much self-reflecting on how their regime change policies in the Middle East have largely created wave after wave of refugees inbound for Europe.
Images showing bumper-to-bumper traffic out of Tehran has widely circulated this week:
The leaders of Iran didn't listen to Trump, but the people of Tehran are. Bumper to bumper traffic of people leaving. pic.twitter.com/pXbnT0SBmw — Paratrooper Brady™ (@ParatooperBrady) June 17, 2025
The Economist says that to some extent, it's already happening:
Thousands of terrified people are fleeing Tehran and other cities that are under attack, turning them into ghost towns. With airports closed, the only exits are by road. Social-media posts show vast traffic jams. Neighboring countries are considering how they might respond if the outflow of people spills across Iran's borders. Many remember the crisis caused by Syria's civil war, which saw 6m refugees leave. So far the exodus from Iran has been tiny, but that could change.
Large movements of people are currently focused on seeking at Iran's northern border:
Many of those fleeing Tehran are heading north, to the less urbanized areas near the Caspian Sea, some 100km away. Even that journey is arduous. The roads are clogged and petrol is scarce, reflecting panic buying and, perhaps, Israeli strikes on oil facilities. Mobile signals are no longer reliable. One person outside the country says it has taken his family inside it more than 12 hours, instead of the normal four, to get to the mountainous Gilian area by the coast. He says that as they drove they saw 'artillery in the sky and fires in the background'. Their plan is to stay in the country. 'They do not want to leave Iran, it is home for them.'
Should the Israel-Iran conflict worsen, the war could spread to Iraq – where militias aligned to Tehran are predominate. They've warned that if the US gets involved, American forces at regional bases could come under retaliatory attack.

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

Gulf Insider

36 minutes ago

• Gulf Insider

Here's How US Strikes On Iran Unfolded

The U.S. strike on three Iranian nuclear facilities overnight on June 21–22 followed a highly intricate plan that entailed more than 125 U.S. aircraft and warships and layers of deception, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said during a Pentagon news briefing. Hegseth said preparation for the mission—dubbed Operation Midnight Hammer—took place over the course of weeks and months, 'so that we could be ready when the president of the United States called.' The U.S. strikes were made a week after Israel launched a series of surprise airstrikes across Iran, aimed at degrading the country's nuclear programs and military capabilities. Joining the conflict that Israel initiated, U.S. military planners set Iran's Fordow uranium enrichment facility as their primary target. With the Fordow facility situated hundreds of feet underground in a mountainous region of Iran, U.S. Air Force B-2 Spirit stealth bombers carrying 30,000-pound bunker-busting bombs, called GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrators, offered one of the best options to destroy the facility. Illustration by The Epoch Times Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the operation was the longest B-2 bomber mission since 2001, the second longest B-2 mission ever flown, and the first operational use of the GBU-57 bombs. At the June 22 news briefing, Pentagon personnel presented a timeline for Operation Midnight Hammer. The operation began just after midnight Eastern time on June 21, as seven B-2 bombers departed Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, heading east on their way to Iran. The B-2 bombers received refueling support from dozens of aerial refueling aircraft along their journey across the Atlantic Ocean and over the Mediterranean Sea. The seven U.S. bombers reached the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility at about 5 p.m. Eastern time on June 22. Just before these bombers entered the Central Command area, U.S. submarines began launching Tomahawk cruise missiles at targets in Iran. U.S. fighter jets flew ahead of the bombers, and the airstrike package entered Iranian airspace at approximately 6 p.m. Eastern time. (Left) A satellite image shows vehicles at the Fordow nuclear enrichment facility in Iran on June 20, 2025. (Right) A satellite image shows the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility, where multiple buildings were destroyed during recent Israeli airstrikes, in Iran on June 14, 2025. Maxar Technologies via AP As they flew ahead, U.S. fighter jets began preemptively suppressing Iranian air defense systems around the Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities, clearing the way for the bomber crews. At approximately 6:40 p.m. Eastern time, the lead bomber crews reached the Fordow nuclear facility and dropped two GBU-57 bombs. Over the next 20 minutes, the rest of the bomber crews dropped their payloads over Fordow and Natanz. The sea-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles reached the third and final target, Iran's Isfahan nuclear facility, and concluded the strike operation at approximately 7:05 p.m. Eastern time. The B-2 bomber crews exited the Iranian airspace at approximately 7:30 p.m. Eastern time. As he delivered remarks on the strikes on the morning of June 22, Hegseth said U.S. air crews were still returning to the United States. After the lead bomber dropped its two GBU-57 bombs, the remaining six B-2 bombers each released two of their own heavy bunker busters over the Fordow and Natanz facilities. In total, these bomber crews dropped 14 bunker buster bombs. Airmen look at a GBU-57, or the massive ordnance penetrator bomb, at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri on May 2, 2023. Seven B-2 bombers on June 21, 2025, departed Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, and bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities. U.S. Air Force via AP, File Detailing the operation, Caine said the U.S. submarines involved in the strikes began firing 'more than two dozen Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles against key surface infrastructure targets at Isfahan.' The air and sea components of the U.S. strike package were carefully sequenced so that the Tomahawk missile impacts could coincide with the narrow time frame of the rest of the strike package. The U.S. strike operation entailed several elements of deception in order to misdirect Iran's defenses. While the bomber crews responsible for conducting the strikes flew east from Whiteman Air Force Base, Caine announced that some bombers were headed west over the Pacific Ocean. An operational timeline of a strike on Iran is displayed following a news conference with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon in Arlington, Va., on June 22, 2025. Caine also announced that some bombers headed west over the Pacific Ocean as said it was 'a deception effort known only to an extremely small number of planners and key leaders here in Washington and in Tampa.' The top U.S. general said U.S. forces employed other deception tactics in the course of the mission, but did not specify what those tactics were. More than 125 military aircraft participated in Operation Midnight Hammer, according to Caine. He said this included the B-2 stealth bombers, 'multiple flights of fourth and fifth generation fighters,' and 'dozens and dozens of air refueling tankers.' A B-2 Spirit stealth bomber performs a flyover of Barnes-Jewish Hospital in St. Louis, on May 8, 2020. Jeff Roberson, File/AP Emphasizing the surprise nature of the operation, Caine said the U.S. military is unaware of any Iranian forces firing on the U.S. warplanes during the mission. 'Iran's fighters did not fly, and it appears that Iran's surface-to-air missile systems did not see us throughout the mission,' Caine added. 'We retained the element of surprise in total.' Hegseth also said the capabilities and coordination demonstrated by the U.S. forces during the operation will be a key factor dissuading Iran from retaliating. 'We believe that'll have a clear psychological impact on how they view the future, and we certainly hope they take the path of negotiated peace,' Hegseth said. 'But I could not be more proud of how this building operated, of the precision, the sensitivity, and the professionalism of the troops involved in this effort.' Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (L), accompanied by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine, takes a question from a reporter during a news conference at the Pentagon in Arlington, Va., on June 22, 2025. President Donald Trump gave an address to the nation on June 21 after three Iranian nuclear facilities were struck by the U.S. said Operation Midnight Hammer was launched in order to destroy or 'severely degrade Iran's nuclear program.' The full extent of the damage inflicted on Iran's three nuclear facilities cannot be independently confirmed at this time. Still, Caine provided an optimistic early outlook. 'I know that battle damage is of great interest,' Caine said. 'Final battle damage will take some time, but initial battle damage assessments indicate that all three sites sustained extremely severe damage and destruction.' In a statement shared by Iran's state-run PressTV shortly after the U.S. strikes, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran vowed it would continue its work. The Iranian nuclear agency also urged the international community to condemn the attack. Vice President JD Vance said that he believes the U.S. airstrikes on three of Iran's nuclear sites have set back the regime's nuclear program. 'I feel very confident that we have substantially delayed their development of a nuclear weapon, and that was the goal of this attack. That's why it was a success,' Vance said on June 22 on NBC's 'Meet the Press.' 'I think that we have really pushed their program back by a very long time. I think that it's going to be many, many years before the Iranians are able to develop a nuclear weapon.' Prior to the strikes, Israel said that Iran could be just weeks away from obtaining a nuclear weapon, while President Donald Trump had said Iran was weeks to months away from a nuclear bomb. Also read: Trump Has Already Pivoted To Mulling Regime Change In Iran With Latest Post

Gulf Insider

41 minutes ago

• Gulf Insider

Damascus Church Bombing Kills 15 Syrian Christians

The oldest Christian population on Earth continues to be under threat of extinction, after the US-Gulf-Israel war of regime change in Syria, and former President Bashar al-Assad's overthrow on December 8 of last year. On Sunday, a suicide bomber entered St. Elias Antiochian Orthodox Church and detonated while a service was happening, killing at least fifteen – according to early reports (alongside possibly a second attacker) – and leaving many more wounded. The church is now a bloody mess, and personnel at the scene have struggled to identify body parts. The church is in an ancient Christian neighborhood that lies outside the Damascus old city's Bab Sharqi, and is in an area of many churches, chapels, and Christian cemeteries. Some initial reports said it may have been a car bomb, but regional sources as well as the popular regional account War Monitor indicate that 'A suicide bomber blew himself up with an explosive belt inside the Greek Orthodox Church of St. Elias in the Douileh area of ​​Damascus, Syria.' And Reuters notes that 'It was the first suicide bombing in Damascus since Bashar al-Assad was toppled by an Islamist-led rebel insurgency in December.' Reuters says at least 20 people were killed and dozens more injured, amid conflicting emergency response reports. A Middle East church source, Syriac Press , describes: According to eyewitness reports, a gunman wearing an explosive vest stormed the church and opening fire. He then detonated his explosive vest. The attack prompted immediate intervention by civil defense teams and medical personnel. Victims were evacuated to hospitals in Daramsuq, where an alert was issued to handle the influx of injured. Ambulance teams worked to secure the area while local security forces cordoned off the site, blocking neighborhood entrances as a precaution against potential further attacks. The Church of Mar Elias, a prominent Christian landmark in the region, holds significant spiritual and historical value for the local community. Journalist Hussam Hammoud, reporting from the scene, described in the aftermath that 'Many of the victims are civilians and children, and security forces prevent journalists from entering the site.' Worst nightmare for Syrian Christians begins: Suicide bombing today during Divine Liturgy at Mar Elias church.. just outside of Bab Sharqi near Old Damascus. At least 15 dead & rising. My-father-in-law's funeral/memorial was here many years ago. Been to this beautiful community… — Brad Hoff (@BradRHoff) June 22, 2025 Years ago, during the height of the anti-Assad insurgency, this all-Christian neighborhood of Damascus was on the front line of conflict as it is next to Jobar district, which was at the time occupied by al-Qaeda. That was a period of sporadic artillery fire launched indiscriminately on the oldest Christian parts of the Syrian capital. The Baathist government of Assad was quasi-secular and protected the region's Christians, as well as other religious 'minorities'. Christian leaders have feared that since Jolani and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's (HTS) takeover, they no longer have protection, and it could become 'open season' on attacking churches. Hundreds of thousands of Syrian Christians with means have left their homeland after some 14 years of brutal war. There are concerns that HTS security forces may be interfering with the crime encircled St. Elias Church shortly after the urgently need international investigators on the ground — with the support of Greece and Cyprus — to ensure transparency and justice. — Greco-Levantines World Wide (@GrecoLevantines) June 22, 2025 President Trump recently lifted sanctions on Syria, but did absolutely nothing to protect the Syrian Christians – or Druze and Alawites for that matter, who have been massacred in large numbers lately, especially along the coast near Latakia. Back in 2015 when a jihadist coalition, with Western support, took over Idlib province – one of the first acts of the bearded so-called 'liberators' was to execute Christians and kidnap an Orthodox Christian priest. A recent book, Syria Crucified: Stories of Modern Martyrdom in an Ancient Christian Land, has recounted the story of how Idlib's ancient Christian community was wiped read: Syrian Flight RB 502 Enroute From Sharjah To Damascus Rerouted To Saudi Arabia's Tabuk Airport

Gulf Insider

an hour ago

• Gulf Insider

Trump Has Already Pivoted To Mulling Regime Change

Trump has already pivoted from 'this isn't about regime change' as an admin talking to point, to… there might possibly be regime change after all . And all the while he's lecturing Thomas Massie about not being 'MAGA' amid a 'debate' over what it is to be America First… As world leaders urgently called for diplomacy, President Trump raised the prospect of regime change in Tehran on Sunday, less than 24 hours after U.S. strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites stoked fears of a dangerously escalating conflict across the Middle East. 'If the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn't there be a Regime change???' Mr. Trump wrote in a post on his social media site. The post came after top members of his administration spent much of the day emphasizing that the United States did not intend to enter an all-out war with Tehran. This could very well become Bush/Cheney's Trump's Iraq War. And look who is very happy… Dear President Trump, Bolton is back into the MAGA fold, but who is the one that has changed? President Trump did the right thing for America in striking Iran's nuclear-weapons program. Now, on to regime — John Bolton (@AmbJohnBolton) June 22, 2025 Republican rep Thomas Massie of Kentucky has been one of the very few outspoken Congressmen on either side of the aisle to blast Trump's Iran bombing campaign, done without Congressional authorization or so much as debate or consultation. Massie was seeking to introduce a war powers resolution in the House ahead of 'bombs away' on Iran. The conservative and libertarian-leading Congressman wants to legally prohibit American involvement in Iran. This is not America First folks. — Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) June 22, 2025 'This is not our war. But if it were, Congress must decide such matters according to our constitution,' he stated last week. In weekend media appearances, he's also been calling out the Trump administration for shilling for Israel and Netanyahu. For example, on 'Face the Nation' he strongly suggested that the White House and some in Congress are being unduly influenced by a foreign power. Massie: AIPAC is very persuasive. If you look at my colleagues' feeds now, they all look the same, they're all tweeting the same message. — Acyn (@Acyn) June 22, 2025 Critics of Trump's Iran policy are complaining that America fighting the Israelis' wars for them is not at all 'America First' – while Trump's team has touted this as 'limited' and intent on eliminating Iran's nuclear program. These and other criticisms have prompted a Sunday Trump response on Truth Social. He took Massie to task for his defiant stance, saying he's 'not Maga' and that 'MAGA doesn't want him'… Social media, including X, has in the last days been taken over by MAGA infighting over the Iran issue. After all, Trump campaigned on a platform that was against starting new wars; however, he also vowed to prevent Iran from ever having a nuclear weapon. Critics have said that the Trump people now sound just like Bush-era NeoCons when it comes to taking 'preemptive' action over WMD fears in the Middle East. The benefit of Donald Trump attacking Thomas Massie is that it will continue to split the right and increase Thomas Massie's popularity. And, in the long run, Massie will be proven right, just like Ron Paul. — Liam McCollum (@MLiamMcCollum) June 22, 2025 Not a single US Congressman campaigned on regime change in Iran, because Americans consistently rank foreign policy as the lowest on their priorities, but most US Congressmen care about regime change in Iran above every other issue. They just take advantage of Americans only… — Liam McCollum (@MLiamMcCollum) June 22, 2025 Following President Trump's new foreign entanglement – bombing Iranian nuclear facilities (which may or may not have taken them out while causing a deep divide amongst MAGA), Vice President JD Vance says he believes their nuclear program has been set back 'many years,' and that he feels 'very confident that we've substantially delayed [Iran's] development of a nuclear weapon,' adding that it was US intelligence, not Israeli intelligence assessments, that led to Trump's decision. When asked if the United States is at war with Iran, he claimed 'No, Kristen, we're not at war with Iran. We're at war with Iran's nuclear program,' and called on Iranians to 'give peace a chance. 'They can go down the path of peace, or they can go down the path of this ridiculous brinksmanship of funding terrorism, of trying to build a nuclear weapon – and that's just not something the United States can accept.' "We didn't blow up the diplomacy. The diplomacy never was given a real chance by the Iranians," says @VP."The Iranians are clearly not very good at war. Perhaps they should follow President Trump's lead and give peace a chance." — Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) June 22, 2025 When asked if the US would support an Israeli assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Vance said that it would be 'up to the Israelis,' and that the US position is 'we don't want a regime change.' VP Vance: 'No Regime Change' in Iran — U.S. Focused on Nuclear Threat, Not Government Overthrow– In interviews (e.g. NBC's Meet the Press), Vice President J.D. Vance emphasized the U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear sites aims solely to dismantle Iran's nuclear program—not to… — GlobalWire (@global_wire_) June 22, 2025 US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, meanwhile insisted to Fox News that 'This is not a war against Iran,' adding 'Not a shot was fired against us. They didn't even know what had happened. By the time we left, the planes were out of their airspace before they finally started realizing they'd been hit. So it would be a terrible mistake if Iran retaliates. So but that's not our goal.' Secretary Rubio clears the air on whether America is "at war" with Iran."This is not a war against Iran.""Not a shot was fired against us. They didn't even know what had happened. By the time we left, the planes were out of their airspace before they finally started realizing… — Media Lies (@MediasLies) June 22, 2025 He also warned against Iranian retaliation, saying: 'If Iran retaliates, it will be the WORST mistake they've ever made.' RUBIO: It would be a terrible mistake if Iran retaliated. But that's not our goal. We are not declaring war on Iran. We're not looking for war on Iran. But if they attack us, then I think we have capabilities they haven't even seen yet. It would be a terrible mistake on their… — Western Lensman (@WesternLensman) June 22, 2025 Rubio then warned Iran not to close the strait of Hormuz after Iran's parliament backed its closure, saying 'If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, it will be another terrible mistake. It's economic suicide for them if they do it and we retain options to deal with that.' Rubio:'If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, it will be another terrible mistake. It's economic suicide for them if they do it and we retain options to deal with that' — Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 22, 2025 Everyone got the script? Iran, meanwhile in a statement through spox Esmail Baghaei, accused the Trump administration of sabotaging diplomatic efforts – saying 'They cannot talk about diplomacy, they betrayed diplomacy,' adding that 'diplomacy never ends.' Setting up for another forever war…where end-goals are undefinable? LOL, Vance says Iran still controls enriched Uranium stockpile, which could be enough to produce 10 nuclear warheads — Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) June 22, 2025 Regarding the escalating conflict, Baghaei warned 'No one knows what will happen next, but what is sure is that the responsibility of the consequences of this war must be borne by the United States and Israel.' The Iranian foreign ministry declined to elaborate on Tehran's likely response to the attacks, or to detail the extent of the damage – only saying in a statement to CNN that Iran 'is entitled … to exercise its right of self-defense,' adding 'And we will do that for sure.' In a Sunday morning press briefing, Trump's Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth declared that 'Iran's nuclear ambitions have been obliterated' – but also asserted that the attack did not target the Iranian people or civilians. He hailed the 'incredible and overwhelming success' – following President Trump last night saying the same thing. 'It's worth noting the operation did not target Iranian troops or the Iranian people.' Hegseth said this is part of the commitment of this administration's vision of 'peace through strength'. He continued, 'Many presidents have dreamed of delivering the final blow to Iran's nuclear program, and none could, until President Trump.' For the 'bold and brilliant' operation, there was weeks of preparation and precision logistics and 'misdirection' at the highest level, involving B-2 bombers going to hit, Hegseth described. 'No other country on planet earth' could have conducted this operation. He also underscored that the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) was used for the first time in US combat history – also that it was the longest bomber mission of its kind since 2001. 'Just like [IRGC Quds Force General Qasem] Solemani found out in the first term, Iran found out when POTUS says '60 days' – that when he seeks peace and negotiation – he means 60 days of peace and negotiation, otherwise that nuclear program will not exist. He meant it.' Hegseth then read aloud Trump's post to Truth Social last night, soon after the three nuclear sites were struck: 'Any retaliation by Iran against the United States of America will be met with force far greater than what was witnessed tonight.' That's when the US Defense Secretary then warned, 'Iran would be smart to heed those words. He said it before and he means it.' He tried to stress the 'limited' scope of the attack and urged the Iranians to come back to the negotiating table: There are both public and private messages being delivered to the Iranians in multiple channels, giving them every opportunity to come to the negotiation table, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says at a Pentagon press briefing. Scope of operation on Iran was 'intentionally limited' Hegseth says he believes the US attack will have a clear psychological impact on how Iran views the future US strikes against Iran's nuclear enrichment site at Fordow are believed to have destroyed capabilities there… To review the details of what happened last night, the US deployed six B-2 bombers to drop 12 GBU-57 'bunker-buster' bombs on Iran's heavily fortified Fordow nuclear site, marking the first time these massive 30,000-pound bombs were used in combat. The enrichment sites at Natanz and Isfahan were also attacked. The mission lasted about 37 hours with multiple refueling missions. While the White House is now claiming Iran's nuclear facilities were 'completely and totally obliterated,' officials say it's too early to confirm the full extent of the damage. America dropped six GBU-57 bunker buster bombs on the Fordow nuclear site — Vince Langman (@LangmanVince) June 22, 2025 Iran, along with international nuclear agencies, reported no radiation leaks, prompting skepticism about the strike's effectiveness—particularly at Fordow, which is buried deep underground. Iranian officials said damage was minimal and mostly above ground. Iran's Atomic Energy Organization vowed to continue its nuclear program, referring to assassinated nuclear scientists as 'martyrs.' Some degree of political backlash has quickly emerged over the lack of Congressional approval for the strikes. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, despite previously mocking Trump's diplomatic efforts with Iran, called for a War Powers vote, criticizing the president's unilateral military action without a clear strategy. Also read: Alarming Fox Report Says Tactical Nukes 'Not Off The Table' For Trump's Iran Response