Scutari seeks more power for the Senate

Good Friday morning!
With a new governor taking office in January, Senate President Nick Scutari is floating a proposal that would give the Senate more power over their cabinet by strengthening the power of advice and consent.
Scutari's proposal has not been formally introduced, according to the several people privy to these discussions I've talked to about it. But he's tied it to budget negotiations. And if it progresses, we'll see what Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli think about it. Even if Ciattarelli is elected governor, the Senate will stay Democratic for at least the first two years of his term.
Currently, there's no limit on how long a gubernatorial nominee can serve in the cabinet in an acting capacity, even if senators refuse to take up the nomination. That's how Comptroller Kevin Walsh has been in his position for five and a half years as two Camden County senators hold up his nomination through senatorial courtesy without explanation. The MVC acting administrator, Latrecia 'Trish' Littles-Floyd, who is three years on the job, is the only other cabinet member who hasn't been confirmed.
Last I heard, Scutari wants to allow cabinet members to serve only six months, after which they could face a Senate vote on whether they can be removed from the job. The Senate would exercise this new power with the next administration. So unless the next governor re-nominates Walsh as comptroller — which seems highly unlikely — it probably won't affect him. But future watchdogs might be quite a bit shier with the Senate breathing down their necks.
This would be a pretty drastic change that would reshape the state's separation of powers. I'm not totally sure whether it would require a constitutional amendment, but I believe the Legislature has some leeway in its interpretation of advice and consent.
FEEDBACK? Reach me at mfriedman@politico.com
WHERE'S MURPHY — No public schedule
QUOTE OF THE DAY: 'Sometimes we don't have the opportunity to thank our utilities enough.' — BPU Commissioner Zenon Christodoulou on New Jersey power companies offering customers $60 in deferred charges this summer, to be repaid later without interest.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY — Pearl Gabel, Zach McCue. Saturday for Al Barlas, Tennille McCoym, Jon Chebra, Beth Schroeder Buonsante. Sunday for Chris Jones, Jill Colvin, John Mulholland, Ravi Varma
WHAT TRENTON MADE
AID IN DYING LEGISLATION AMENDED FOR NEWSPAPERS — Deadline approaches on newspaper public notices solution, by POLITICO's Matt Friedman: New Jersey is once again barreling towards a deadline to fix its decades-old law on how public notices are published, but so far there's no solution in sight. Now, lawmakers are scrambling to find a permanent fix by the June 30 deadline — the same day they have to pass the state budget. 'Because of the timing, it's something that will get through very quickly in the budget season without a lot of time for comment or reflection about the implications it has,' Marc Pfeiffer, a local government expert faculty researcher at Rutgers, told POLITICO. State and local governments, as well as some private businesses and individuals, have long been required to post public notices in designated official newspapers. And for years, lawmakers have unsuccessfully sought to roll those requirements back, calling it a subsidy for the newspaper industry while the news industry accused them of seeking to punish publications for critical reporting. But the issue came to a head earlier this year when the Star-Ledger — the newspaper of record for many New Jersey counties and municipalities — ceased print publication while its sister publication, The Jersey Journal, shut down altogether.
SAVED BY AN ANGELO — 'Why NJ businesses are getting an unexpected tax break,' by NJ Spotlight News' John Reitmeyer: 'New Jersey businesses are getting an automatic tax cut starting next month due to the improving condition of the state fund that covers unemployment benefits. According to the state Department of Labor and Workforce Development, the agency that administers the unemployment fund, the tax cut will total an estimated $300 million over the course of a full fiscal year. 'This is significant news for both the state and its employers and highlights the strength and resilience of New Jersey's economy,' said Robert Asaro-Angelo, the state labor commissioner. … Thanks to contributions that have surpassed initial projections, the employer contribution rates will be moved to the next lower range on the rate schedule starting July 1, labor officials announced on Wednesday.'
77 PERCENT OF NEW JERSEY VOTERS WEREN'T 'OPEN-MINDED' TO IT — 'Murphy says he is 'open-minded' about casinos beyond Atlantic City to keep gambling dollars in NJ,' by The Press of Atlantic City's Wayne Parry: 'Gov. Phil Murphy says he is 'open-minded' about allowing casinos in northern or central New Jersey as a way to keep gambling and tourism dollars from leaving the state. New York is planning to soon authorize up to three casinos in or near New York City, a move that is widely expected to seriously cut into a prime customer base for Atlantic City. In an interview with The Press of Atlantic City on Wednesday, the Democratic governor said he realizes that allowing casinos somewhere other than Atlantic City will affect the resort. But he also said his duty is to keep gambling money within the state's borders. 'I have historically liked the notion that if it's a zero-sum question between New York and New Jersey, I want the gaming dollars and the tourism and everything that goes with it on the New Jersey side, for sure,' Murphy said. 'But I'm also conscious of what the impact would be on Atlantic City, as I have been since Day One.''
CIATTARELLI'S IUO — 'Operating Engineers endorse Ciattarelli for governor,' by New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein: 'The International Union of Operating Engineers Local 825 has endorsed Jack Ciattarelli for governor of New Jersey, giving the Republican nominee the support of one of the state's most politically potent labor unions. The 8,000-member union can provide Ciattarelli with boots on the ground during his campaign, and the potential to spend a significant amount of money through independent expenditures to help him win. 'New Jersey is at a crossroads. We face an energy crisis, an affordability crisis, and a crisis of common sense. The solutions are basic but may not be politically popular,' said the union's business manager, Greg Lalevee.'
—'Bill to split Military And Veterans Affairs Department clears committee'
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—'NJ Senate advances laws to curb 'ghost' guns, expand gun crimes'
—'160 years after Juneteenth, New Jersey must repair the past | Opinion'
—'Wind energy near the Jersey Shore is over (for now). How activists and politicians feel about its demise'
—'Wimberly says he would consider lt. gov. run, amid reports he's in consideration'
TRUMP ERA
SANCTUARY? — Joan Sebastian Castaneda-Lozada, one of the Delaney Hall escapees last Thursday, showed up to turn himself in to State Police in Bridgeton but was not taken into custody, according to DHS. 'Due to their sanctuary policies, the State Police refused to take him into custody because they do not work with ICE,' the Department of Homeland Security said.
I thought that was odd because New Jersey's Immigrant Trust Directive — the policy that has made New Jersey a sanctuary state in the eyes of the Trump administration — doesn't bar police cooperation with ICE for 'complying with all applicable federal, state, and local laws.' In a statement, Attorney General Matt Platkin said that 'when a federal criminal complaint is issued, New Jersey Law Enforcement is fully empowered to assist federal partners in enforcing valid judicial warrants.'
'In the wake of the incidents that took place at ICE's Delaney Hall, my office issued express guidance to the State law enforcement community reiterating that officers should detain any of the four wanted individuals in connection with the federal criminal investigation into their escape from the facility,' Platkin said. A spokesperson for Platkin said he issued that guidance the day of the escape. Castaneda-Lozada showed up to the State Police on Friday, according to DHS.
I asked the State Police on Tuesday why the escapee wasn't taken into custody but didn't hear back.
JOHSNON & JOHNSON CAN'T MAKE A BAND-AID BIG ENOUGH — 'NJ stands to lose $19B in health care spending from Trump's 'big, beautiful bill',' by The Record's Scott Fallon: 'New Jersey's $53 billion health care sector has been growing at such a rapid rate over the past three decades that it has become one of the state's biggest economic engines. But like any engine, this one is prone to stall if there's problem with the fuel. New Jersey is poised to lose $19.2 billion over the next nine years in health care spending from the controversial House budget bill that includes steep cuts to both Medicaid and subsidies that discount insurance premiums under the Affordable Care Act, according to an analysis issued this week. The proposed $1 trillion in health care cuts in the measure dubbed by President Donald Trump as a 'big, beautiful bill' would also take another $5 billion out of New Jersey's economy in uncompensated care for the newly uninsured, the national report by New Jersey-based Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Urban Institute said. New Jersey would be hit the 14th hardest among states in overall health care spending cuts.'
—'Freed American-Israeli hostage Edan Alexander gets joyful welcome home celebration in New Jersey'
—'History of alarming practices widespread across ICE sites'
LOCAL
GLOUCESTERF**K — Joe Brocco, the alleged phantom independent candidate in Gloucester Township whose candidacy appeared designed to threaten the real independent candidacy of Keith Gibbons — who's challenging Democratic Mayor David Mayer — appears to be off the ballot. Local GOP Chair Ray Polidoro challenged his petitions, and struck enough to get him just under the required 250 valid signatures, according to a decision by Camden County Deputy Clerk John Schmidt. Last I checked, the attempt to write-in another alleged phantom candidate, Republican Neil Smith, had also fallen just a few votes short to get him on the ballot. That sets up a likely two-man race between Mayer and Gibbons, who helped lead the landslide defeat of a referendum to sell the town's sewer system to New Jersey American Water, where Mayer works as director of government affairs. A challenge to Gibbons' petitions was unsuccessful.
MAPSIKOUDIS — 'N.J. Supreme Court rules in Jersey City's favor in longstanding ward map case,' by Hudson County View's John Heinis: 'The New Jersey Supreme Court ruled in the favor of the City of Jersey City in a longstanding case challenging the Board of Ward Commissioners approval of a new map in January 2022. The 65-page decision, which comes over six months after the state's highest court heard oral arguments in the case, disagrees with the appellate court's March 2024 ruling that additional fact finding was needed to determine if compactness requirements were met. Ultimately, the Supreme Court ruled 4-3, determining that Municipal Ward Law (MLW) was followed and the New Jersey Constitution was not violated in any way by the ward commissioners. … In a joint statement, counsel for the plaintiffs, Renee Steinhagen of NJ Appleseed Public Interest Law Center, Yael Bromberg of Bromberg Law, and Bill Matsikoudis of Matsikoudis & Fanciullo, said the decision 'allowed a gerrymandered map to stand.''
ONE RED LIGHT TICKET AFTER MANY RED FLAGS — 'Hear 911 calls from crash where Paterson Councilman Velez was issued a red light ticket,' by The Paterson Press' Joe Malinconico: 'City Councilman Luis Velez has been issued a traffic ticket from the May 12 motor vehicle crash in which he was one of the drivers, the Paterson Police Department has confirmed. Law enforcement sources said the ticket issued to Velez was for disregarding a traffic light. The incident remains under investigation, police said. City officials on June 13 provided Paterson Press with audio recordings of the 911 calls made about the crash involving Velez, including at least two calls by the councilman … 'I have not received a ticket yet,' Velez said in an interview on June 16. 'I don't know what ticket you're talking about.' … . At times, Velez's comments to the emergency dispatcher are difficult to decipher, his words sounding garbled. Paterson Press asked the councilman about his mumbled speech. He attributed his lack of clarity to the impact of the crash … But the Paterson cop who responded to the crash scene — arriving after Washington already was taken away in an ambulance — never gave Velez a sobriety test, the crash report says.'
BRIDGE TO TERRIBLETHIA — 'Friends, foes of controversial N.J. Turnpike bridge project square off at heated hearing,' by NJ Advance Media's Larry Higgs: 'More than 200 people came to a contentious final public hearing Wednesday about the New Jersey Turnpike Authority's $6.2 billion plan to replace the Newark Bay bridge with twin spans with more lanes. The auditorium of Woodrow Wilson School #10 in Bayonne was packed with both supporters, many of whom were union members wearing matching t-shirts, and opponents, including officials and residents from Hoboken and Jersey City. Bayonne Mayor Jimmy Davis opened the Wednesday evening hearing by saying he and the city council were '100% behind the project' to the applause of union port workers in the room … But Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla countered that city's elected officials were 100% opposed. 'No one is against updating the bridge and if it involves union jobs, even better,' Bhalla said. 'We're against failed transportation policies that create more car traffic by widening lanes and hurting the community. Jersey City has the highest asthma rate in Hudson County.''
—'NJTA still touting $10.7B widening project, despite ongoing objections to the plan'
SIMPLISAFE'S ALARMING RECORD — 'NJ school administrator owns bus companies sued over multiple crashes, injuries,' by The Asbury Park Press' Colleen Wilson and Mike Davis: 'The ninth time Kelley Edwards was involved in a car crash, she was behind the wheel of a school bus, transporting a high school track team to a state tournament in Toms River. Elizabeth Garner's 10th crash — the fourth in 10 years, and second in four months — also came while she was driving a school bus, on a side street of McCarter Highway in Newark. And when Marcus Harris-El rear-ended an idling vehicle while parking a school bus at James Caldwell High School in West Caldwell, it was his fourth incident, according to a motor vehicle abstract … Each worked as a school bus driver for one of the private school bus companies owned at least in part by a high-ranking administrator in one of the largest school districts in North Jersey. Jason Ballard, the business administrator of the Orange public school district, was a co-owner of each of those school bus companies during his career with the Orange and Newark school districts, as well as the New Jersey Schools Development Authority, according to state financial disclosure forms and business records. Ballard's school bus companies were sued six times by drivers who said they were injured in crashes involving school buses operated by SimpliSafe Transportation'
NO GRENADES — 'Can new rules tame Seaside Heights boardwalk? Borough approves new curfew, backpack ban,' by The Asbury Park Press: 'Following a turbulent Memorial Day weekend that included 80 arrests and four stabbings, Seaside Heights borough officials have unanimously passed new boardwalk regulations. The goal is to curb future incidents, with changes addressing boardwalk hours and bag restrictions. Under the new rules, the boardwalk will now close nightly. From Sunday through Thursday, it will be closed to the public between midnight and 6 a.m. On Friday and Saturday nights, and on federal holidays, the closure will be from 1 a.m. to 6 a.m.'
—'Lifeguard walked away as 2 brothers drowned and [Bayonne] school covered it up, lawyers say'
—''I'm not sure where I will go': Homeless people told to leave Lakewood camp'
—'Paterson mayor's bid to expand opioid treatment program to Clifton and Passaic snubbed'
—'Trump administration joins bitter fight to block N.J. town from seizing 175-year-old family farm'
—'Elmwood Park sergeant sues police department, chief claiming racial discrimination'
—'Somerset Dems prepare to pick county commissioner replacement'
EVERYTHING ELSE
EDUCATION — 'New Jersey teachers groomed students, sometimes at the same school,' by The Asbury Park Press' Mike Davis, Jenna Calderón and Patricia Mendoza: 'While they only represent a miniscule number of teachers statewide, dozens of educators in recent years have been disciplined — professionally, legally and criminally — for sexual misconduct, often involving students. They made inappropriate, sexual-tinged comments about a student's appearance. They sent egregiously romantic social media and text messages. And they built physical, sexual relationships with the very students placed in their care, developing twisted relationships that experts said could have disastrous emotional effects as a child reaches adulthood and grasps the reality of what actually transpired. Since 2019, the state Department of Education has revoked or suspended the teaching licenses of 139 New Jersey educators after accusations of sexual misconduct with children, including students or others in their care. About four in five licensees whose credentials were revoked also faced criminal charges.'
—'See Jeremy Allen White's Bruce Springsteen in 'Deliver Me from Nowhere' trailer, list of N.J. film locations'
CORRECTION — In Wednesday's edition, I misspelled the name of Cranbury farm owner Andrew Henry because my fingers decided to type the name of former Senate Democratic Executive Director Andrew Hendry. The latter does not own a farm, though you could argue he worked as a kind of shepherd.

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35 minutes ago

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Supreme Court ruling scrambles battle for transgender care

The Supreme Court on Wednesday delivered a substantial blow to transgender-rights advocates in upholding a 2023 Tennessee law banning gender-affirming care for minors, a decision that could have far-reaching consequences for the future of transgender health in the U.S. but whose impact won't be felt right away. 'The immediate outcome is that it doesn't change anything,' said Kellan Baker, executive director of the Institute for Health Research and Policy at Whitman-Walker, a Washington-based nonprofit. 'It doesn't affect the availability or legality of care in states that do not have bans, and it simply says that states that have decided to ban this care can do so if they survive other challenges.' Twenty-seven Republican-led states since 2021 have adopted laws that ban transition-related care, including puberty blockers, hormone therapy and rare surgeries for minors. Laws passed in Arizona and New Hampshire — the first Northeastern state to have restricted gender dysphoria treatments for youth — only prohibit minors from accessing surgeries, a provision that was not at issue before the Supreme Court. In a 6-3 decision, the high court upheld a lower court ruling that found Tennessee's restrictions do not violate the U.S. Constitution's Equal Protection Clause. The state's law, which allows cisgender children and teens to access medications that it bans for trans minors, makes distinctions based on age and diagnosis, the courts ruled, rather than sex and transgender status. Three Tennessee families, a doctor and the Biden administration, along with attorneys at the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and Lambda Legal, argued the measure amounts to illegal sex discrimination, warranting heightened review. 'Having concluded it does not,' Chief Justice John Roberts wrote for the majority on Wednesday, 'we leave questions regarding its policy to the people, their elected representatives, and the democratic process.' At least 10 legal challenges to state laws prohibiting health professionals from administering gender-affirming care to minors argue the restrictions discriminate based on sex in violation of the 14th Amendment's Equal Protection Clause. The Supreme Court's ruling Wednesday could potentially weaken, in some cases, that line of attack, but it is not the only approach opponents of the laws have pursued. More than a dozen other lawsuits, including ones arguing equal protection under the U.S. Constitution, claim bans on transition-related health care for minors violate the 14th Amendment's Due Process Clause, federal disability law or provisions of a state's constitution. In May, a federal judge struck Montana's ban on gender-affirming care for youth on grounds it violated privacy, equal protection and free speech rights guaranteed by its constitution. 'This ruling allows challenges to other state bans to continue,' said Baker, of Whitman-Walker, 'and they will.' Karen Loewy, senior counsel and director of Lambda Legal's constitutional law practice, told reporters on a Zoom call following Wednesday's ruling that the civil rights organization and others challenging state bans on gender-affirming care have other options at their disposal. 'The Supreme Court did not endorse the entirety of the lower court's ruling; it did not mandate or even greenlight other bans on gender-affirming medical care, even for young people, or other forms of discrimination,' she said. 'It really is about how it viewed Tennessee's in this specific way, and left us plenty of tools to fight other bans on health care and other discriminatory actions that target transgender people, including other equal protection arguments about transgender status discrimination, about the animus-based targeting of trans people.' Loewy added that the court's ruling also left the door open to arguments based on state and federal sex discrimination statutes and parental rights, which the justices did not address Wednesday. Nearly all of the cases brought against youth gender-affirming care bans argue those laws infringe on the rights of parents to make medical decisions on behalf of their children. 'As a parent, I know my child better than any government official ever will,' Samantha Williams, the mother of L.W., a transgender teenager who was at the center of the case before the Supreme Court, wrote in a New York Times op-ed after Wednesday's ruling. The Supreme Court's determination that Tennessee's law does not discriminate based on sex also raises questions about how opponents of transition-related health care for minors will use the ruling to inform their own legal strategies. In Arkansas, the ACLU successfully argued in 2023 that the first-in-the-nation ban on gender-affirming care for minors violated the U.S. Constitution's Equal Protection Clause, as well as its Due Process Clause and the First Amendment's protections of free speech. 'We'll have to see, but it's possible that that ban could stand because the court made that decision on equal protection, as well as on other grounds,' said Lindsey Dawson, director for LGBTQ health policy at KFF, a nonprofit health policy research, polling and news organization. 'This is likely to be an area that's going to face continued litigation and is not settled at this point in time.' In a statement Wednesday, Arkansas Attorney General Tim Griffin (R) said he is 'preparing an official notification' for an appeals court detailing the implications of Wednesday's Supreme Court decision on the state's ban, which the Legislature passed — and former Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson initially vetoed — in 2021. 'Because our law is similar to Tennessee's law, today's decision has positive implications for our case before the United States Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit,' he said. Montana and Arkansas are the only states whose bans on gender-affirming care for youth remain blocked by court orders, according to the Movement Advancement Project, a nonprofit group that tracks LGBTQ laws. The Supreme Court's ruling Wednesday also declined, as some court watchers had anticipated, to apply the reasoning of its earlier decision in Bostock v. Clayton County, which held that Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 shields employees from discrimination based on their sex or gender identity. Some lawsuits challenging state bans on care for minors have said the ruling should apply to contexts other than workplace discrimination. Former President Biden's administration similarly sought to use the court's reasoning in Bostock to back new nondiscrimination policies protecting transgender people in health care and sports, arguments largely rejected by conservative political leaders and courts. 'We still don't have a sole understanding of where Bostock might apply outside of Title VII, and it's going to be something that's important to watch,' Dawson said. 'It's certainly something that the Bostock court warned us about,' she said. 'In that decision, the court said, this court is making its ruling and it's quite narrow, but it's going to be for future courts to decide how this applies outside of Title VII. That remains a question mark.'

The Hill

42 minutes ago

• The Hill

The Memo: Trump pumps brakes, lightly, on joining Israel's assault on Iran

President Trump is pumping the brakes, at least for the moment, on direct U.S. engagement in Israel's assault on Iran. On Thursday, Trump determined that he would make a 'decision on whether or not to go within the next two weeks,' according to a statement read by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt. Trump had also determined there was 'a chance for substantial negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future,' Leavitt said. But that pause could be unpaused at any moment, given Trump's mercurial nature, the volatility of the situation in the Middle East and the voices within American politics arguing that the time is ripe for the U.S. to deliver a decisive blow on Israel's behalf. Trump on Friday said the two-week period was the 'maximum' period that would elapse before he decided on the question. That left the overall positive muddy — but it also gave Trump some room to maneuver. And even his current equivocal stance shows him edging back toward his more anti-interventionist 'America First' instincts. That is a turn from earlier in the week, when Trump had seemed right on the brink of sending American forces in some capacity to back Israel's assault. At that point, he had bragged on social media that 'we' had control of the skies over Iran and, in a separate all-caps post, appeared to demand Iran's 'UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!' Trump's fuzzy position since then reflects several different facts. First, for all his aggressiveness on the domestic stage, Trump has long been skeptical of foreign adventuring. In his first run for the presidency — a campaign that began a decade ago — he was critical of former President George W. Bush's war in Iraq, to an extent that was highly unusual for a Republican candidate. Relatedly, Trump's apparent flirting with war provoked significant pushback from influential figures within his Make America Great Again (MAGA) base. The most prominent of these is Tucker Carlson, whose skeptical questioning of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) during a long interview went viral in recent days. Carlson, former chief strategist Steve Bannon and widely-watched influencers on the online right such as Theo Von have all argued that the dangers of getting sucked into a new Middle East war are acute. Then there is broader American public opinion to consider. There seems remarkably little appetite among the public for direct U.S. involvement in an attack on Iran. A Washington Post poll released on Wednesday found 45 percent opposed to U.S. airstrikes on Iran, just 25 percent supporting such action and 30 percent undecided. So, it's no surprise that Trump is returning to a long-established tactic of playing for time. As some sardonic media reports have noted since Thursday's 'two weeks' pronouncement, this is a timescale he has cited in the past for things that have never ultimately happened. One example was a promise to produce a detailed health plan that would purportedly replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA) passed under President Obama. He has also cited 'two weeks' as a timeframe by which various facets of his views on the war in Ukraine would become clear. On Iran, the president is to be sure under some pressure from those who believe this is a rare opportunity to strike at Iran, debilitate its uranium enrichment capacity for good and perhaps topple the nation's theocratic leadership. This school of thought holds that Iranian proxies and allies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the former regime of Bashar Assad in Syria have been so worn down (in the case of the first two) or removed (in the case of Assad) that stronger action is possible today than would have been the case even a couple of years ago. The Trump administration has its fair share of vehement supporters of expansive Israeli power. For example, Trump's ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, has in the past been supportive of Israel's decades-long occupation of the West Bank, despite that occupation being deemed illegal by numerous interpretations of international law. Huckabee also wrote Trump a message in recent days — which Trump duly published on social media — in which the ambassador suggested that Trump was positioned to act as a vehicle of divine will regarding Israel. Yet another wrinkle in Trump's approach is his seeming split with his director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, on the question of whether Iran is actively seeking a nuclear weapon. Gabbard's belief flies in the face of the purported Israeli rationale for the attack on Iran. But on Friday, Trump was confronted by a reporter on the question. The reporter asked what evidence Trump had that Iran is building a nuclear weapon and said U.S. intelligence had reported that it had not seen such evidence. 'Well then, my intelligence community is wrong,' Mr. Trump insisted. 'Who in the intelligence community said that?' When the reporter named Gabbard, Trump shot back, 'She's wrong.' Gabbard, a former Democratic congresswoman, is renowned for her general skepticism of American interventionism. Trump appears to yet hold out some hope of a breakthrough in talks with Iran. His envoy Steve Witkoff remains engaged on the issue. Any major Iranian concessions at this point would allow Trump to claim — as he often likes to do — that his high-risk approach to diplomatic negotiation had paid off. On the other hand, it's hard to see how any deal between the U.S. and Iran would placate the Israeli government led by Benjamin Netanyahu. Indeed, the possibility of such a deal in the first place is seen by some as one of the reasons Netanyahu launched the assault on Iran in the first place. For now, Trump has bought himself some time. But there are risks in every direction. The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.

The Hill

42 minutes ago

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Newsom's stock rises after clash with Trump

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is seeing his name rise toward the top of potential 2028 contenders following his fight with President Trump over the unrest in Los Angeles. In the wake of immigration protests that roiled the city and prompted Trump to send in the National Guard without Newsom's approval, the governor has framed himself as the face of resistance to Trump's second-term moves, energizing Democrats and upping his 2028 primary chances in a recent Morning Consult poll. But Democrats also acknowledge Newsom faces an uphill climb as he handles the end of his tenure as governor and navigates the nation's polarized political climate. 'He's doing really well among Democrats, both in California and throughout the nation. He's getting a boost in 2025,' said John Pitney, a politics professor at Claremont McKenna College in California. 'Unfortunately for him, a presidential nomination won't happen until 2028.' Newsom, who emerged during Trump's first administration as a leader of the Democratic resistance, started the year with what appeared to be a friendlier approach to the administration and a GOP-controlled Washington. He struck a conciliatory tone as he lobbied Trump for aid after catastrophic wildfires ravaged California in the winter, and then he made headlines with the launch of a podcast hosting prominent Trump supporters. The moves were a pivot toward the center amid speculation about whether he would launch a 2028 bid. But when Trump responded to protests this month over Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids by sending in hundreds of National Guard troops against Newsom's objections, the governor embraced the face-off. In fiery speeches, TV appearances and social media posts, Newsom has cast Trump's moves in California as executive overreach and warned of an existential fight for democracy, drawing ire from the right. He dared Trump's border czar Tom Homan to arrest him, which Trump later said he'd support. 'Trump is trying to destroy Democracy. Do not let him,' Newsom wrote in his first post on a new Substack page this week. The protests and the clash between the leaders have carried political risks for both sides of the aisle, but they've also intensified the spotlight on the term-limited governor long suspected of having national ambitions. Polling on 2028 is sparse. But in a Morning Consult survey taken June 13-15, as the LA protests were dying down, 11 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said they would back Newsom in a 2028 primary, up from 5 percent who said the same in March. Former Vice President Kamala Harris was still the clear front-runner, with 34 percent support, but her backing ticked down 2 points from March — while Newsom overtook both former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). Newsom has so far stayed quiet about the speculation and his future plans. But he has signaled the door is open to a potential presidential run. 'I'm not thinking about running, but it's a path that I could see unfold,' he told The Wall Street Journal amid his latest feuding with Trump. Pressed on the question by guest Dr. Phil on the 'This is Gavin Newsom' podcast earlier this month, the governor said 'fate will determine that' and noted that he's got his 'hands full' for the next couple years. Democratic strategist Maria Cardona stressed that Newsom's resistance to GOP policies is part of the job description as governor of a big blue state like California — and not necessarily an 'auditioning' for higher office. Still, she said his public sparring with Trump about the protests 'certainly doesn't hurt' his future prospects. 'It highlights and it gives faith to the base of the Democratic Party, independents, frankly, also to common-sense Republicans … that there is fight in the opposition, that there are people willing to confront Trump and go toe to toe with him,' Cardona said. Newsom's high-profile resistance also comes at a key point for the party, as Democrats regroup after a devastating election last year, noted California Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio. 'Democrats are desperate for a leader, and I think he's had his 15 minutes, and that helped him rocket to the top of the latest polls,' Maviglio said. But a swell of energy three years before an election would be hard for any prospective candidate to maintain, experts noted, and Newsom faces some unique hurdles if he ends up pursuing the presidency. For one, California has increasingly become a target of the right, and the protests have given Republicans scenes of chaos to point to as they argue that Democrats are soft on crime and immigration. 'It's both a strength and a weakness … California is 20 percent of the country, so he's got a lot of name ID. He's a major national figure, just by virtue of the fact that he's the governor of a huge state,' said Matt Bennett, Democratic strategist and co-founder of centrist think tank Third Way. 'It's a weakness because California is perceived, fairly or not, as being very blue, very liberal. And he was mayor of San Francisco, which is even more blue and more liberal. So I do think he's got things in his past that are going to make it difficult for him to escape the stereotypical view of Democrats,' Bennett said. The protests are also unlikely to be Newsom's last brush with Trump, and the governor may need to further tweak his approach to help his state get what it needs, noted Pitney, the professor at Claremont McKenna College. 'Whether it's another set of wildfires, an earthquake, mudslides, something bad is going to happen. We know that that is part of living in California. And when that happens, we're going to need federal help, and at that point, he's going to have to turn on the mute button,' Pitney said. To that point, though, some are also questioning whether Newsom's effort to shift gears between conciliatory and confrontational with Trump could be a political liability moving forward. 'His weakness is that he's been all over the map in terms of his relationship with Trump,' Maviglio said. 'He tried to be the accommodating moderate for a few months, and that wasn't working. So now he's become the anti-Trump, and he gained steam from that. But this is precisely why he's not trusted by the progressive wing of the party or the moderate wing, because he's all over the map, and it's been inconsistent.' Bennett, on the other hand, shrugged off concerns about the shift in tone, arguing that Trump is so 'mercurial' in his own right that those engaging with him are 'going to be [as] all over the map as he is.' 'I think that Newsom's fight with Trump is good for him and his standing with the party. He has been resolute and tough, and I think that's probably helping him,' Bennett said. Yet another complication, though, is that Trump won't be on the ballot in 2028 — and opposition to him may not end up as a defining issue. If Newsom does decide to run, he'd have to navigate that new territory, while also dealing with a potentially tricky gap between his exit from the governor's mansion and the election. 'It's always a tough balancing act for governors and others, especially governors who tend to be term limited … to figure out what to do with that awkward year between them leaving office and running for president, and how do you stay relevant?' Bennett said. 'That is a challenge for anyone who's out of office when they go to try to run for president, and it's tough to do.'