China's nuclear arsenal growing fastest, to touch 1,500 warheads by 2035: SIPRI

China has the world's fastest-growing nuclear weapons arsenal and could have as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as the United States and Russia by 2030, according to latest analysis from the Stockholm International Peace Institute (SIPRI). read more
A Dongfeng-41 intercontinental strategic nuclear missiles group formation marches to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China in Beijing, on October 1, 2019 (Photo: Shen Shi/Imagine China/Reuters)
China has the world's fastest-growing nuclear arsenal that is expected to more than double over the next decade, according to latest analysis from the Stockholm International Peace Institute (SIPRI).
In the SIPRI Yearbook 2025, analysts said that China is adding 100 nuclear warheads to its arsenal every year and has at least 600 nuclear warheads.
By 2025, China is expected to have 1,500 warheads, according to the analysis.
The SIPRI's findings are in line with the US intelligence assessment from last year that found that China has been carrying out 'most rapid expansion and ambitious modernisation of its nuclear forces in history'.
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The United States and Russia have the world's largest nuclear arsenals with more than 10,500 warheads among them.
China could have as many ICBMs as US, Russia
China is not just expanding the nuclear arsenals, but is also expanding storage and launch sites, according to SIPRI.
By 2035, China would have completed around 350 new silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in three large desert fields in the country's north and three mountainous areas in the country's east, as per SIPRI.
Analysts noted that this would mean that China could potentially have at least as many ICBMs as either the United States or Russia by the end of the decade even though nuclear warheads would just be a tiny fraction compared to them.
Photo Credit: Stockholm International Peace Institute (SIPRI)
In an assessment last year, the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) doubled its estimate of China's nuclear arsenal and said that China had more than 500 nuclear weapons and was on track to have more than 1,000 by 2030. In 2023, China was assessed to have 200 warheads.
Among the most concerning findings, the DIA said that China could junk the no-first-use (NFU) policy and may be open to a 'limited' nuclear war.

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