Trump buys himself time, and opens up some new options
In fact, within an hour of the White House release of Trump's statement that 'I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks', Netanyahu signalled that he was likely to use the time to try his own attacks on the deeply buried Fordow nuclear plant.
'I established that we will achieve all of our objectives, all of their nuclear facilities,' he said. 'We have the power to do so.'
In fact, American and foreign experts say, the Israelis have been preparing military and covert options for years, examining how they might interrupt the massive electrical supply systems that keep the centrifuges buried in an enrichment hall under a mountain. Even the introduction of a surge or a pulse in that electrical flow could destabilise and destroy the delicate machines as they spin at supersonic speeds, like a top spinning out of control.
In recent days, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) concluded that Israel's destruction of the electric plant above another enrichment centre, at Natanz, probably critically damaged the thousands of centrifuges spinning below.
The Israelis have considered what it would take to bomb and seal the tunnel entrances into the facility, trapping workers inside and making it all the more difficult to bring near-bomb-grade fuel into the plant for a final boost that would make it usable in a weapon. That fuel itself, stored in the ancient capital of Isfahan, would also be a target for the Israelis, American officials say.
But the first question is whether the Iranians have the political flexibility to seize on the time period Trump has opened up.
Administration officials say Steve Witkoff, the president's special envoy, has already been in touch in recent days with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, with whom he has been talking since early April.
'I think the question is, can the Iranians see this as an opportunity to avoid the significant challenges that would come from the destruction of their last remaining facility?' asked Laura Holgate, who served as American ambassador to the IAEA during the Biden administration. But she said that 'direct surrender is probably not on the table for them', or 'total abandonment of enrichment capacity either, even now'.
Robert Litwak, a scholar who has written extensively on diplomacy with Iran, said, 'Here is the diplomatic needle both sides need to thread: the US accepts that Iran has a right to enrich uranium, and Iran accepts that it must completely dismantle its nuclear program'.
The conflict between Israel and Iran has consumed the president's week, as he returned early from the Group of 7 meeting in Canada to deal with the war. He spent the early part of the week posting a series of bellicose threats on social media, seeming to lay the groundwork for the US to join Israel's bombing campaign.
He urged all the residents of Tehran, a city of roughly 10 million people, to evacuate, claimed the US had 'complete and total control of the skies over Iran', and said American officials knew where Iran's leader was hiding but would not kill him – 'at least not for now'.
Many of the president's allies believed that the US's entrance into the war was imminent. But on Wednesday, the president said he had not made a final decision about whether to bomb Iran, and he berated Iran for not agreeing to a new deal to limit its nuclear program. Still, he said, it was not too late for a diplomatic solution.
'Nothing's too late,' he said.
Trump's public flirtation with entering the war has sharply divided his base – so much so that Vice President JD Vance wrote a lengthy social media post on Tuesday seeking to downplay concerns that the president was abandoning his commitment to keep America out of overseas conflict.
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'I can assure you that he is only interested in using the American military to accomplish the American people's goals,' Vance wrote.
But some of the president's most prominent allies, including Republican congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, former Fox News host Tucker Carlson and former aide Steve Bannon have criticised the prospect of the US getting involved in another country's war.
'Anyone slobbering for the US to become fully involved in the Israel/Iran war is not America First/MAGA,' Greene posted on social media.
On the other end of the spectrum, many of Trump's hawkish allies in the Senate, including South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham and Arkansas senator Tom Cotton, are urging the president to take a more aggressive posture toward Iran.
'Be all in, President Trump, in helping Israel eliminate the nuclear threat,' Graham said this week on Fox News. 'If we need to provide bombs to Israel, provide bombs. If we need to fly planes with Israel, do joint operations.'
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The Advertiser
41 minutes ago
- The Advertiser
Europe to tell Iran that US open to direct talks
European foreign ministers will tell their Iranian counterpart that the US is open to direct talks even as it considers joining Israeli strikes intended to smash Tehran's nuclear capacity, diplomats say before a meeting in Geneva. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi would be told that Iran must send a "clear signal", two diplomats told Reuters, with pressure mounting on Tehran to agree tough curbs on its nuclear program to prevent the potential development of an atomic weapon. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke to several Western counterparts before the meeting in Switzerland, the diplomats said, indicating readiness to engage directly with Tehran. Washington did not confirm that though broadcaster CNN quoted a US official saying President Donald Trump supported diplomacy from allies that could bring Iran closer to a deal. Tehran, however, has repeatedly said it will not talk to the Trump administration until Israeli attacks end. The ministers from Britain, France and Germany, known as the E3, plus the European Union's foreign policy chief, were meeting separately on Friday before planned face-to-face talks with Araqchi. "The Iranians can't sit down with the Americans whereas we can," a European diplomat said. "We will tell them to come back to the table to discuss the nuclear issue before the worst-case scenario, while raising our concerns over its ballistic missiles, support to Russia and detention of our citizens." The talks were due for mid-afternoon in Geneva, where an initial accord between Iran and world powers to curb its nuclear program in return for sanctions lifting was struck in 2013 before a comprehensive deal in 2015. Separate talks between Iran and the US collapsed when Israel launched what it called Operation Rising Lion against Iran's nuclear facilities and ballistic capabilities on June 12. "There is no room for negotiations with the US until Israeli aggression stops," Araqchi was quoted as saying on Iranian state TV on Friday. The E3 have in past talks with Iran suggested it keep some uranium enrichment but accept extremely strict international inspections of its nuclear activities. Trump has demanded zero enrichment and French President Emmanuel Macron appeared to echo that call on Friday, saying any new deal needed to go towards zero enrichment for Iran. The main message Europeans will pass to Araqchi is that the US has signalled readiness for direct talks, but that Iran must give a serious signal, the two European diplomats said, without defining what the signal should be. Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, has spoken to Araqchi several times since last week, sources say. While diplomats did not expect a breakthrough in Geneva, they said it was vital to engage with Iran because once the war stopped the nuclear issue would remain unresolved given that Tehran would still retain the scientific know-how. Trump has said he will decide within two weeks whether to join Israeli strikes. "A window now exists within the next two weeks to achieve a diplomatic solution," British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said. European foreign ministers will tell their Iranian counterpart that the US is open to direct talks even as it considers joining Israeli strikes intended to smash Tehran's nuclear capacity, diplomats say before a meeting in Geneva. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi would be told that Iran must send a "clear signal", two diplomats told Reuters, with pressure mounting on Tehran to agree tough curbs on its nuclear program to prevent the potential development of an atomic weapon. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke to several Western counterparts before the meeting in Switzerland, the diplomats said, indicating readiness to engage directly with Tehran. Washington did not confirm that though broadcaster CNN quoted a US official saying President Donald Trump supported diplomacy from allies that could bring Iran closer to a deal. Tehran, however, has repeatedly said it will not talk to the Trump administration until Israeli attacks end. The ministers from Britain, France and Germany, known as the E3, plus the European Union's foreign policy chief, were meeting separately on Friday before planned face-to-face talks with Araqchi. "The Iranians can't sit down with the Americans whereas we can," a European diplomat said. "We will tell them to come back to the table to discuss the nuclear issue before the worst-case scenario, while raising our concerns over its ballistic missiles, support to Russia and detention of our citizens." The talks were due for mid-afternoon in Geneva, where an initial accord between Iran and world powers to curb its nuclear program in return for sanctions lifting was struck in 2013 before a comprehensive deal in 2015. Separate talks between Iran and the US collapsed when Israel launched what it called Operation Rising Lion against Iran's nuclear facilities and ballistic capabilities on June 12. "There is no room for negotiations with the US until Israeli aggression stops," Araqchi was quoted as saying on Iranian state TV on Friday. The E3 have in past talks with Iran suggested it keep some uranium enrichment but accept extremely strict international inspections of its nuclear activities. Trump has demanded zero enrichment and French President Emmanuel Macron appeared to echo that call on Friday, saying any new deal needed to go towards zero enrichment for Iran. The main message Europeans will pass to Araqchi is that the US has signalled readiness for direct talks, but that Iran must give a serious signal, the two European diplomats said, without defining what the signal should be. Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, has spoken to Araqchi several times since last week, sources say. While diplomats did not expect a breakthrough in Geneva, they said it was vital to engage with Iran because once the war stopped the nuclear issue would remain unresolved given that Tehran would still retain the scientific know-how. Trump has said he will decide within two weeks whether to join Israeli strikes. "A window now exists within the next two weeks to achieve a diplomatic solution," British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said. European foreign ministers will tell their Iranian counterpart that the US is open to direct talks even as it considers joining Israeli strikes intended to smash Tehran's nuclear capacity, diplomats say before a meeting in Geneva. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi would be told that Iran must send a "clear signal", two diplomats told Reuters, with pressure mounting on Tehran to agree tough curbs on its nuclear program to prevent the potential development of an atomic weapon. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke to several Western counterparts before the meeting in Switzerland, the diplomats said, indicating readiness to engage directly with Tehran. Washington did not confirm that though broadcaster CNN quoted a US official saying President Donald Trump supported diplomacy from allies that could bring Iran closer to a deal. Tehran, however, has repeatedly said it will not talk to the Trump administration until Israeli attacks end. The ministers from Britain, France and Germany, known as the E3, plus the European Union's foreign policy chief, were meeting separately on Friday before planned face-to-face talks with Araqchi. "The Iranians can't sit down with the Americans whereas we can," a European diplomat said. "We will tell them to come back to the table to discuss the nuclear issue before the worst-case scenario, while raising our concerns over its ballistic missiles, support to Russia and detention of our citizens." The talks were due for mid-afternoon in Geneva, where an initial accord between Iran and world powers to curb its nuclear program in return for sanctions lifting was struck in 2013 before a comprehensive deal in 2015. Separate talks between Iran and the US collapsed when Israel launched what it called Operation Rising Lion against Iran's nuclear facilities and ballistic capabilities on June 12. "There is no room for negotiations with the US until Israeli aggression stops," Araqchi was quoted as saying on Iranian state TV on Friday. The E3 have in past talks with Iran suggested it keep some uranium enrichment but accept extremely strict international inspections of its nuclear activities. Trump has demanded zero enrichment and French President Emmanuel Macron appeared to echo that call on Friday, saying any new deal needed to go towards zero enrichment for Iran. The main message Europeans will pass to Araqchi is that the US has signalled readiness for direct talks, but that Iran must give a serious signal, the two European diplomats said, without defining what the signal should be. Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, has spoken to Araqchi several times since last week, sources say. While diplomats did not expect a breakthrough in Geneva, they said it was vital to engage with Iran because once the war stopped the nuclear issue would remain unresolved given that Tehran would still retain the scientific know-how. Trump has said he will decide within two weeks whether to join Israeli strikes. "A window now exists within the next two weeks to achieve a diplomatic solution," British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said. European foreign ministers will tell their Iranian counterpart that the US is open to direct talks even as it considers joining Israeli strikes intended to smash Tehran's nuclear capacity, diplomats say before a meeting in Geneva. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi would be told that Iran must send a "clear signal", two diplomats told Reuters, with pressure mounting on Tehran to agree tough curbs on its nuclear program to prevent the potential development of an atomic weapon. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke to several Western counterparts before the meeting in Switzerland, the diplomats said, indicating readiness to engage directly with Tehran. Washington did not confirm that though broadcaster CNN quoted a US official saying President Donald Trump supported diplomacy from allies that could bring Iran closer to a deal. Tehran, however, has repeatedly said it will not talk to the Trump administration until Israeli attacks end. The ministers from Britain, France and Germany, known as the E3, plus the European Union's foreign policy chief, were meeting separately on Friday before planned face-to-face talks with Araqchi. "The Iranians can't sit down with the Americans whereas we can," a European diplomat said. "We will tell them to come back to the table to discuss the nuclear issue before the worst-case scenario, while raising our concerns over its ballistic missiles, support to Russia and detention of our citizens." The talks were due for mid-afternoon in Geneva, where an initial accord between Iran and world powers to curb its nuclear program in return for sanctions lifting was struck in 2013 before a comprehensive deal in 2015. Separate talks between Iran and the US collapsed when Israel launched what it called Operation Rising Lion against Iran's nuclear facilities and ballistic capabilities on June 12. "There is no room for negotiations with the US until Israeli aggression stops," Araqchi was quoted as saying on Iranian state TV on Friday. The E3 have in past talks with Iran suggested it keep some uranium enrichment but accept extremely strict international inspections of its nuclear activities. Trump has demanded zero enrichment and French President Emmanuel Macron appeared to echo that call on Friday, saying any new deal needed to go towards zero enrichment for Iran. The main message Europeans will pass to Araqchi is that the US has signalled readiness for direct talks, but that Iran must give a serious signal, the two European diplomats said, without defining what the signal should be. Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, has spoken to Araqchi several times since last week, sources say. While diplomats did not expect a breakthrough in Geneva, they said it was vital to engage with Iran because once the war stopped the nuclear issue would remain unresolved given that Tehran would still retain the scientific know-how. Trump has said he will decide within two weeks whether to join Israeli strikes. "A window now exists within the next two weeks to achieve a diplomatic solution," British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said.
Sky News AU
2 hours ago
- Sky News AU
Global Islamic politics expert says Israel's claims about Iranian nuclear weapon 'at odds' with intelligence reports as Netanyahu 'desperate' to involve Trump in war
An Australian global Islamic politics expert has urged the world to be "sceptical" of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claims after numerous intelligence reports concluded that Iran is not "close at all" to building a nuclear weapon. Professor Greg Barton from Deakin University told Sky News Netanyahu's strategy to close down Iran's nuclear program may not be as "clear cut and simple", as he would present it to be to President Donald Trump, in an attempt to persuade the US to join the Israeli assault. "I think that the way that Benjamin Netanyahu will sell it to Trump is that you just send in a couple of B2s over Fordow and it's done," Mr Barton told Sky News host Steve Price. "You've closed down the nuclear program and we're good. "But of course, it is not likely to be so clear cut and so simple." According to Axios, President Trump believes the US has leverage over Iran due to its bunker buster munitions – which Israel does not have – that are capable of destroying the Fordow nuclear enrichment facility that sits deep under a mountain. Mr Barton added the bunker buster bombs are unlikely to demolish Iran's nuclear program and could instead result in dangerous escalation of war in the Middle East. 'First of all, those B2 strikes with massive ordnance, penetrator bombs over Fordow, 90 metres underground, that likely wouldn't finish Iran's nuclear program,' he said. 'They'd probably scramble to take what they have left and actually move towards nuclear weapons. 'In the meantime, they're likely to strike out against US targets all around the Middle East and use their proxies to do so. 'So a very dangerous risk of escalation and a prolonged conflict.' When questioned about the validity of Netanyahu's claims about Iran's existential threat to Israel, Mr Barton said they were 'at odds' with other publicly available intelligence reports have said, including what Trump was briefed on by his own security adviser. Mr Barton highlighted Israel's remarkable capabilities at penetrating Iranian society and its defence apparatus, but noted other intelligence reports suggest 'Iran is some way off, it's not close at all' to building a nuclear weapon. 'It is possible they know something that no one else knows, but what all the other intelligence reports are saying is that Iran is some way off, it's not close at all,' he said. 'We can't know, we're sort of making a claim from Netanyahu who is desperate to involve Trump and America in this programme, and on balance you sort of want to be a bit sceptical about what he's saying for that reason.' Israel has been trading missiles with Iran since last Friday in an attempt to shut down any efforts of Tehran building an atomic weapon to wipe out the existence of the Jewish state. Netanyahu said the operations were to "strike the head of Iran's nuclear weaponisation program". White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told a media briefing on Thursday, local time, she had been asked to pass on a 'direct quote' from President Trump on the possibility of US intervention in the Israel-Iran war. 'Based on the fact that there is a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,' she said, quoting the President. Ms Leavitt also urged sceptics of US involvement to 'trust' in President Trump's judgement, before emphasising his 'top priority' was to prevent Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon.
The Age
3 hours ago
- The Age
Few believe Iran has nuclear weapons. We can't afford to repeat the Iraq War lie
The Middle East is once again in danger of exploding, with massive global geopolitical and economic implications. The leader who bears most responsibility for this is undoubtedly Benjamin Netanyahu. For years, the Israeli prime minister has doggedly pursued the demise of the Iranian Islamic regime in line with his power interests and his vision of Israel's security requirements. His stated goal has long been to bring down the 'Islamic empire in Iran', 'expand the Abraham Accords with Arabs' and once and for all end the Palestinians' aspirations for an independent state. As part of this Middle East master plan, he has also zeroed in on Iran's nuclear program. But let's not forget: No concrete evidence exists that Iran has been manufacturing nuclear weapons. In a congressional hearing earlier this year, the United States' Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard confirmed this fact. And earlier this week, Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said that 'on the basis of our evaluation, we came to the conclusion that we could not affirm that there is any systematic effort in Iran to manufacture a nuclear weapon'. Despite this, Netanyahu continues to insist that Iran is on course to produce nuclear weapons within weeks, and the US is teetering on entering the war in Israel's support. Meanwhile, he omits the fact that Israel itself has its own nuclear program. Though Israel has never formally confirmed or denied its nuclear arsenal, its national Atomic Energy Commission was established in 1952. By 1958, researchers believe the government had established a weapons development site in Dimona, and American intelligence from the 1960s stated that there was a reprocessing plant for plutonium production at the site. Loading As the Federation of American Scientists wrote in 2007, 'the existence of Israeli nuclear weapons is a 'public secret' by now due to the declassification of large numbers of formerly highly classified US government documents which show that the United States by 1975 was convinced that Israel had nuclear weapons'. According to the Centre for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, Israel today has at least 90 nuclear warheads and enough material to produce hundreds more. The United Nations' nuclear watchdog has also found that of the 30 countries capable of developing nuclear weapons, Israel is among nine that possess them (Russia, US, China, France, United Kingdom, Pakistan, India, Israel and North Korea).
