What to expect from Christian McCaffrey in fantasy football this season

There hasn't been any major Christian McCaffrey news this offseason, which is good news for the San Francisco 49ers and fantasy football managers who either have or want to draft the 2023 Offensive Player of the Year.
McCaffrey dealt with Achilles tendinitis last year that cost him most of training camp and the preseason, along with the first eight weeks of the regular season. Shortly after his return he sustained a knee injury that sent him to the sidelines for the rest of the year.
Now the 49ers' superstar RB is back and participated in full during OTAs and mandatory minicamp. His trajectory says he's in line to return to the workhorse back role he held in 2023 when he snagged his second OPOY award. However, that doesn't mean fantasy managers should be launching McCaffrey back to the top of their draft boards where he sat going into drafts last year.
It's impossible to know via OTAs and minicamp just how "back" McCaffrey is. We won't know that until he gets to practice with pads on and perhaps take a couple hits in preseason games. Even if he is some close facsimile of the player he was prior to his Achilles injury, it would be a surprise if the 49ers gave him the type of volume he got in the 2023 campaign.
That year he racked up an NFL-high 339 touches in 16 games while playing 81 percent of the team's offensive snaps. Last season coming off the Achilles injury that number actually jumped. He played 87.5 percent of the snaps in his season debut vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That jumped to 93.7 percent the next week against the Seahawks, and fell to 81.6 percent in a blowout loss to the Packers. He got hurt in his fourth game and only played a quarter of the snaps.
We're expecting the 49ers to learn from last season when they immediately thrust McCaffrey back into heavy workloads despite having capable players like Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo on the roster. The result was an injury early in his fourth game back.
Guerendo showed last season he has enough pass-catching chops to get on the field without compromising the multifaceted skill set McCaffrey has on the 49ers' offense. The club also retained Israel Abanikanda and Patrick Taylor, and selected Jordan James in this year's draft. They also signed Corey Kiner as an undrafted free agent. That group should give the 49ers enough in the offseason to build out a running back room that doesn't force the club to rely on McCaffrey. Instead, they can make him their clear RB1 while also giving him more consistent snaps off.
This isn't to say McCaffrey's fantasy value will plummet. Even if his effectiveness is a question mark, the team has a ton of question marks at wide receiver which may push quarterback Brock Purdy to utilize McCaffrey more often in the passing game. It's worth noting McCaffrey was targeted 19 times in four games last year, including three times in 12 snaps in Week 13 before his injury. That's an 81-target pace, which is in line with the 83 targets he got in 2023.
Opportunities are still going to be there for McCaffrey and he remains one of their most consistent receiving threats. McCaffrey is currently the RB5 with an average draft position of 11.5 according to Fantasy Pros. We'd love to get McCaffrey in the back end of the first round given the upside of another OPOY season. Even if he doesn't reach those heights, and even if some of his snaps are eaten into by other RBs, there should be enough volume to justify making him a first-round pick. McCaffrey drafters should also make sure to tack on Guerendo (RB48, 145.5 ADP) late. Just in case.
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