Can Nato keep Trump on-message about Russia threat?
Since coming back into office on Jan 20, US President Donald Trump has upended the West's approach towards Russia's war on Ukraine by opening the door to closer ties with Moscow. PHOTO: EPA-EFE
BRUSSELS - When leaders from Nato's 32 countries gather for a summit in The Hague next week, most want to send a clear message: Russia is the main threat to their alliance.
But the loudest voice in the room likely won't be on the same page.
Since coming back to office, US President Donald Trump has upended the West's approach towards Russia's war on Ukraine by undercutting Kyiv and opening the door to closer ties with Moscow.
While the volatile leader has expressed some frustration with Russia's Vladimir Putin for refusing a ceasefire, he has steered clear of punishing the Kremlin.
At a Group of 7 summit this week, Mr Trump made waves by saying the group of industrialised countries should never have expelled Russia.
Ahead of the Hague gathering, diplomats at Nato have been wrangling over a five-paragraph summit statement, with many countries pressing for a full-throated assertion of the menace from Moscow.
That, they say, will help explain the main thrust of the meeting: an agreement for countries to ramp up defence spending to satisfy Mr Trump's demand for it to reach 5 per cent of GDP.
Statement on Russia 'threat'
Since the Kremlin launched its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the alliance has called Russia 'the most significant and direct threat to allies' security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area'.
But this time around the United States – backed up by Moscow-friendly Hungary and Slovakia – has been intent on watering that down.
Diplomats have been juggling with variants such as referring to 'threats, including Russia' or mentioning 'the long-term threat posed by Russia to Euro-Atlantic security'.
The verbal nuances may seem slight, but they mean a lot to those countries being asked to massively ramp up spending and those on Nato's eastern flank most threatened by the Kremlin.
Nato has warned that Russia could be ready to attack an alliance country within five years.
'If we can get Trump to sign off on calling Russia a long-term threat then that would be a good result,' a senior European diplomat told AFP.
'Near threat'
As US peace efforts between Russia and Ukraine have stalled, the diplomat said that Washington appeared to have 'moved a centimetre in our direction' on taking a stronger stance on Russia.
'Of course more hawkish countries want to go further – but just getting Trump to agree that would still be fine,' the diplomat said.
Part of the US reasoning is that Washington is more worried about the threat China poses worldwide – and that Russia is more a problem just in Europe.
'Russia is the near threat,' said US ambassador to Nato Matthew Whitaker.
'But China is obviously a big challenge for all of us, and we need to be allied and address those threats as well.'
Mr Camille Grand of the European Council on Foreign Relations said that beneath the diplomatic fine-tuning, Nato was being confronted by a 'fundamental question'.
'How does the United States view Russia?' he said. 'So far, we haven't really got an answer.'
Even if Nato does opt for stronger wording on Moscow, there is always the possibility that Mr Trump could show up in The Hague and directly contradict it.
But the debate could come into sharper focus in the months after the summit when the United States could announce a pull-back of forces in Europe as part of a review of its global deployments.
Division on Ukraine
One area where Washington appears clearly not on board with most other allies is on backing Ukraine.
Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky is set to attend on the sidelines of the summit but his involvement is being kept to a minimum to avoid a bust-up with Mr Trump.
Diplomats said there should be a reference in the summit statement linking new defence spending to helping Ukraine – but there will be no talk of Kyiv's long-term push to join Nato.
'The US does not see Ukrainian security as essential to European security,' said Mr Kurt Volker, a former US ambassador to Nato.
'Our European allies do, so they feel that if Putin is allowed to prevail in Ukraine, or if Ukraine does not survive as a sovereign, independent state, they are at risk.' AFP
Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
CNA
35 minutes ago
- CNA
US judge blocks Trump administration's move to bar foreign students at Harvard
BOSTON: A federal judge on Friday (Jun 20) blocked the Trump administration's efforts to prevent Harvard University from hosting international students, delivering the Ivy League institution another victory as it challenges multiple government sanctions amid an escalating battle with the White House. The order from US District Judge Allison Burroughs in Boston preserves Harvard's ability to host foreign students while the case is decided. Harvard sued the Department of Homeland Security in May after the agency withdrew the university's certification to host foreign students and issue paperwork for their visas. The action would have forced Harvard's roughly 7,000 foreign students, about a quarter of its total enrolment, to transfer or risk being in the United States illegally. New foreign students would have been barred from coming to Harvard. The university called it unlawful retaliation for rejecting the White House's demands to overhaul policies around campus protests, admissions, hiring, and other issues. Burroughs temporarily halted the action hours after Harvard filed suit. Less than two weeks later, in early June, President Donald Trump moved to block foreign students from entering the United States to attend Harvard, citing a different legal justification. Harvard challenged the move, and Burroughs temporarily blocked that effort as well. The stops and starts of the legal battle have unsettled current students and left others around the world waiting to find out whether they will be able to attend America's oldest and wealthiest university. The Trump administration's actions have created an environment of 'profound fear, concern, and confusion,' the university said in a court filing. Countless international students have asked about transferring, according to Harvard immigration services director Maureen Martin. TRUMP ADMINISTRATION'S BROADER CAMPAIGN AGAINST HARVARD Trump has been at odds with Harvard for months after it rejected a series of government demands meant to address conservative complaints that the school has become too liberal and has tolerated anti-Jewish harassment. Trump administration officials have cut more than US$2.6 billion in research grants, ended federal contracts, and threatened to revoke its tax-exempt status. In April, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem demanded that Harvard turn over records related to any dangerous or unlawful activity by foreign students. Harvard said it complied, but Noem deemed the response insufficient and on 22 May revoked Harvard's certification in the Student and Exchange Visitor Programme. The sanctions placed Harvard at a disadvantage as it competed for top global students, the university said in its lawsuit, and damaged its reputation as a leading research hub. 'Without its international students, Harvard is not Harvard,' the suit stated. The action would have upended graduate programmes that recruit heavily from abroad. Some universities overseas, including two in Hong Kong, quickly offered invitations to affected Harvard students. Harvard President Alan Garber has said the university has implemented changes to combat antisemitism. However, he added that Harvard would not stray from its 'core, legally protected principles,' even in the face of federal ultimatums.
Straits Times
40 minutes ago
- Straits Times
Trump disavows spy chief Gabbard's take on Iran's nuclear program
U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard departs after a closed door meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. at the Malacanang Palace, Manila, Philippines, June 2, 2025. Ezra Acayan/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo WASHINGTON - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that his Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, was wrong in suggesting there is no evidence Iran is building a nuclear weapon. Trump contested intelligence assessments relayed earlier this year by his spy chief that Tehran was not working on a nuclear weapon when he spoke with reporters at an airport in Morristown, New Jersey. "She's wrong," Trump said. Gabbard testified to Congress in March that the U.S. intelligence community continued to judge that Tehran was not working on a nuclear warhead. Trump's comments came as the president has said he would weigh involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict over the next two weeks. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has justified a week of airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets by saying Tehran was on the verge of having a warhead. Gabbard's office has previously pointed to quotes from the spy chief saying that she and Trump were "on the same page" regarding the status of Iran's nuclear program. Iran denies developing nuclear weapons, saying its uranium enrichment program was only for peaceful purposes. A source with access to U.S. intelligence reports told Reuters that the assessment presented by Gabbard had not changed. They said U.S. spy services also judged that it would take up to three years for Iran to build a warhead with which it could hit a target of its choice. Some experts, however, believe it could take Iran a much shorter time to build and deliver an untested crude nuclear device, although there would be no guarantee it would work. Trump has frequently disavowed the findings of U.S. intelligence agencies, which he and his supporters have charged - without providing proof - are part of a "deep state" cabal of U.S. officials opposed to his presidency. The Republican president repeatedly clashed with U.S. spy agencies during his first term, including over an assessment that Moscow worked to sway the 2016 presidential vote in his favor and his acceptance of Russian President Vladimir Putin's denials. Gabbard, a fierce Trump loyalist, has been among the president's backers who have aired such allegations. REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Straits Times
43 minutes ago
- Straits Times
Europe-Iran talks yield little in Geneva at ‘perilous' moment, ministers ready to meet again
British foreign minister David Lammy (left) and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot briefing the media in Geneva on June 20, after their talks with Iran's Foreign Minister on Tehran's nuclear programme. PHOTO: AFP Europe-Iran talks yield little in Geneva at 'perilous' moment, ministers ready to meet again GENEVA - There were few signs of progress after European foreign ministers met their Iranian counterpart on June 20 in a bid to prevent conflict in the Middle East from escalating, although all signalled readiness to keep talking, despite major sticking points. The foreign ministers of Germany, Britain, France - known as the E3 - plus the EU, urged Iran to engage with the United States over its contentious nuclear programme even as Tehran has repeatedly insisted it will not open discussions with the Trump administration until Israeli strikes on Iran end. The talks aimed to test Tehran's willingness to negotiate a new nuclear deal despite there being no obvious prospect of Israel ceasing its attacks soon, diplomats said. 'The Iranian Foreign Minister has expressed his willingness to continue discussions on the nuclear programme and more broadly on all issues, and we expect Iran to commit to the discussion, including with the United States, to reach a negotiated settlement,' said French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot. For his part, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran was ready to consider diplomacy once Israel had ceased its attacks and been held accountable for its actions. 'In this regard, I made it crystal clear that Iran's defence capabilities are not negotiable,' he said, following the talks lasting around three hours in Geneva. No date for a follow-up meeting was announced despite Europeans underscoring the small window for diplomacy. US President Donald Trump has said he will decide within two weeks whether to join the Israeli strikes intended to smash Tehran's nuclear capacity. European ministers spoke beforehand with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio who signalled Washington was open to direct talks even as it mulls the strikes, diplomatic sources said. Washington did not confirm that, though broadcaster CNN quoted a US official saying Mr Trump supported diplomacy by allies that could bring Iran closer to a deal. Britain's foreign minister David Lammy said the European countries were eager to continue talks with Iran. 'This is a perilous moment, and it is hugely important that we don't see regional escalation of this conflict,' he said. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi leaving after his meeting in Geneva with the foreign ministers of Germany, Britain, France - known as the E3 - plus the EU. PHOTO: AFP Two European diplomats said the E3 did not believe that Israel would accept a ceasefire in the near term and that it would be difficult for Iran and the US to resume negotiations. They said the idea was to begin a parallel negotiating track, initially without the US, on a new deal that would involve tougher inspections, and potentially on Iran's ballistic missile programme, while allowing Tehran some notional enrichment capacity. Enrichment differences The Trump administration is demanding Iran stop uranium enrichment altogether, whereas the E3 have in past talks left it some scope to enrich for civil ends in exchange for extremely strict international inspections. On June 20, French President Emmanuel Macron shifted closer to Mr Trump's position, saying that any new deal with Tehran needed to go towards zero enrichment. A senior Iranian official told Reuters Iran is ready to discuss limitations on its uranium enrichment but said the prospect of zero enrichment would undoubtedly be rejected. In a speech at the United Nations in Geneva before the E3 meeting, Mr Araqchi accused Israel of a 'betrayal of diplomacy', while Israel's envoy in Geneva raised a 'vehement objection' to the minister addressing the UN's Human Rights Council. Geneva was the scene of an initial accord between Iran and world powers to curb its nuclear programme in return for sanctions lifting in 2013 before a comprehensive deal in 2015. Separate talks between Iran and the US collapsed when Israel launched what it called Operation Rising Lion against Iran's nuclear facilities and ballistic capabilities on June 13. France's Mr Barrot spoke to Mr Rubio on June 19, during which Mr Rubio said Washington was ready for direct contact with the Iranians, a diplomatic source said. The Europeans wanted to make clear to Iran that the US is ready for direct talks, but that Iran must give a serious signal, two diplomats said, without defining what that could be. REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
