Express view on Index of Eight Core Industries (ICI) for April 2025: If these industries are not growing fast enough, the rest of the economy is unlikely to
The Index of Eight Core Industries (ICI) for April 2025 released by the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade shows that the monthly growth rate of the index fell to a nine-month low of just 0.5 per cent. In other words, the index grew just 0.5 per cent in April this year over the same month last year. This index comprises the eight most fundamental industrial sectors of the economy — coal, natural gas, crude oil, refinery products (such as petrol and diesel), fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity (with differing weights) — and it maps the volume of production in these industries. The eight core industries comprise 40.27 per cent of the weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP). Since these eight industries essentially serve the role of a basic and/or intermediate ingredient in the functioning of the broader economy, this index's health is important to the state of the economy.
The performance in April suggests a sharp loss of growth momentum relative to the preceding months. For instance, the index had grown by 4.6 per cent in March. In comparison, data from the index shows that of the eight industries, six experienced a weakness in growth momentum. The worst affected set of industries was refinery products, which incidentally have the highest weightage in the index (almost 30 per cent), as they clocked a negative growth rate (a contraction) of 4.5 per cent; it is the poorest showing since November 2022. Crude oil and fertilisers also witnessed contraction while the electricity index grew by just 1 per cent. Apart from the data for April, also noteworthy was the data for the full financial year that ended in March. In 2024-25, the core industries index grew by 4.5 per cent; this is the slowest increase since the post-pandemic recovery in 2021-22.
At one level, the slowdown in April is understandable. The global economy received the shock of President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs and the ensuing surge of uncertainty has meant that most economic and financial metrics across the world have shown some impairment. However, the weakness, and especially the sharpness of it, and that too both in April and in the full year data for FY24, points to domestic causes as well. If these eight industries are not growing fast enough, the rest of the economy is unlikely to, either. Given the tepid start to the year, observers such as the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) are dialling down the forecasts for both the June quarter as well as the full financial year. Readers and policymakers should watch out for two other data sets due to be released in days to come — the IIP and the GDP — to better understand the current state of the economy.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Time of India
an hour ago
- Time of India
S&P 500, Nasdaq finish lower; investors uneasy about Middle East conflict
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended lower on Friday, with investors on edge over the Iran-Israel conflict heading into the weekend, as the U.S. considers whether to get involved. Trading was choppy for much of the session. The S&P 500 also ended lower for the week, while the Nasdaq registered a weekly gain. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 23.7% Returns in last 5 years with Shriram Life's ULIP Shriram Life Insurance Undo Iran said it would not discuss the future of its nuclear program while under attack by Israel, as Europe tried to coax Tehran back into negotiations. The White House said on Thursday that President Donald Trump will decide in the next two weeks whether the U.S. will get involved in the Israel-Iran air war, adding pressure on Tehran to negotiate. "Investors are a little bit nervous about buying stocks right in front of this situation and, more specifically, right in front of this weekend," said Rick Meckler, a partner at Cherry Lane Investments in New Vernon, New Jersey. Live Events Israel's attacks have been aimed at suppressing Tehran's ability to build nuclear weapons. A week into its campaign, Israel said it had hit dozens of military targets. Tech-related megacap stocks, including Nvidia, were among the biggest negatives on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 35.16 points, or 0.08%, to 42,206.82, the S&P 500 lost 13.03 points, or 0.22%, to 5,967.84 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 98.86 points, or 0.51%, to 19,447.41. For the week, the Dow was little changed, the S&P 500 was down 0.2% and the Nasdaq was up 0.2%. Friday's volume was higher than the recent average. The day marked a "triple-witching" event, which is the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options contracts that takes place once every quarter. U.S. exchanges' volume was 20.91 billion shares, compared with the 18.06 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days. Investors also weighed comments from Federal Reserve officials after the Fed on Wednesday left interest rates unchanged and Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned inflation could pick up pace over the summer as Trump's tariffs work their way to consumers. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he felt the inflation risk from tariffs was small, and that the Fed should cut rates as soon as its next meeting. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin took a more tempered view, saying there was no urgency to cut rates. Kroger shares jumped 9.8% after the grocery chain increased its annual sales growth forecast. Shares of Accenture fell 6.9% after the IT services provider said new bookings decreased in the third quarter. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.1-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 102 new highs and 59 new lows on the NYSE. On the Nasdaq, 1,894 stocks rose and 2,651 fell as declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.4-to-1 ratio. (Additional reporting by Kanchana Chakravarty and Sukriti Gupta in Bengaluru; Editing by Devika Syamnath and Rod Nickel)
Economic Times
an hour ago
- Economic Times
S&P 500, Nasdaq finish lower; investors uneasy about Middle East conflict
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended lower on Friday, with investors on edge over the Iran-Israel conflict heading into the weekend, as the U.S. considers whether to get involved. ADVERTISEMENT Trading was choppy for much of the session. The S&P 500 also ended lower for the week, while the Nasdaq registered a weekly gain. Iran said it would not discuss the future of its nuclear program while under attack by Israel, as Europe tried to coax Tehran back into negotiations. The White House said on Thursday that President Donald Trump will decide in the next two weeks whether the U.S. will get involved in the Israel-Iran air war, adding pressure on Tehran to negotiate. "Investors are a little bit nervous about buying stocks right in front of this situation and, more specifically, right in front of this weekend," said Rick Meckler, a partner at Cherry Lane Investments in New Vernon, New Jersey. Israel's attacks have been aimed at suppressing Tehran's ability to build nuclear weapons. A week into its campaign, Israel said it had hit dozens of military targets. ADVERTISEMENT Tech-related megacap stocks, including Nvidia, were among the biggest negatives on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 35.16 points, or 0.08%, to 42,206.82, the S&P 500 lost 13.03 points, or 0.22%, to 5,967.84 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 98.86 points, or 0.51%, to 19,447.41. ADVERTISEMENT For the week, the Dow was little changed, the S&P 500 was down 0.2% and the Nasdaq was up 0.2%. Friday's volume was higher than the recent average. The day marked a "triple-witching" event, which is the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options contracts that takes place once every quarter. ADVERTISEMENT U.S. exchanges' volume was 20.91 billion shares, compared with the 18.06 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days. Investors also weighed comments from Federal Reserve officials after the Fed on Wednesday left interest rates unchanged and Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned inflation could pick up pace over the summer as Trump's tariffs work their way to consumers. ADVERTISEMENT Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he felt the inflation risk from tariffs was small, and that the Fed should cut rates as soon as its next meeting. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin took a more tempered view, saying there was no urgency to cut rates. Kroger shares jumped 9.8% after the grocery chain increased its annual sales growth forecast. Shares of Accenture fell 6.9% after the IT services provider said new bookings decreased in the third quarter. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.1-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 102 new highs and 59 new lows on the NYSE. On the Nasdaq, 1,894 stocks rose and 2,651 fell as declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.4-to-1 ratio. (Additional reporting by Kanchana Chakravarty and Sukriti Gupta in Bengaluru; Editing by Devika Syamnath and Rod Nickel) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
an hour ago
- Time of India
Wall Street choppy, oil dips as US holds back from Mideast military action
Major Wall Street indexes closed lower on Friday while oil prices fell after U.S. President Donald Trump held back from immediate military action in the Israel-Iran conflict. All eyes remained trained on the Middle East one week after an initial Israeli assault drew Iranian retaliation. The U.S. imposed Iran-related sanctions a day after Trump said he might take two weeks to decide on further action. According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 lost 0.21%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.49%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, rose 38.47 points, or 0.09%, to 42,210.13. Stocks had been broadly positive at the open, and dipped in and out of negative territory during the session. Global benchmark Brent crude futures fell 2.3% to settle at $77.01 a barrel, but gained 3.6% in the week. Front-month U.S. crude - which did not settle on Thursday due to a U.S. holiday and expires on Friday - ended down 0.28% at $74.93, with a weekly gain of 2.7%. Live Events "Investors are a little bit nervous about buying stocks right in front of this situation and, more specifically, right in front of this weekend," said Rick Meckler, a partner at Cherry Lane Investments in New Vernon, New Jersey. The new sanctions target entities, individuals and vessels providing Iran with defence machinery, and were seen as a sign of a diplomatic approach from the Trump administration. "However, while Israel and Iran carry on pounding away at each other, there can always be an unintended action that escalates the conflict and touches upon oil infrastructure," PVM analyst John Evans said. European foreign ministers urged Iran to engage with the U.S. over its nuclear programme after high-level talks in Geneva about a potential new nuclear deal ended with little sign of progress. Europe's main bourses had ended their session a touch higher, following similar gains across Asia. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe fell 0.01% on the day. Gains on Hong Kong's Hang Seng, and South Korea's Kospi linked to newly elected President Lee Jae Myung's stimulus, had boosted Asian shares during that session. FED SPLIT Federal Reserve policymakers made their first public comments since Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that borrowing costs were likely to fall this year, but that he expects "meaningful" inflation ahead as Trump's tariffs raise prices for consumers. The close split between governors on how to manage the risks was in full view as Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank should consider cutting as soon as the next meeting, while the Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin said there was no urgency to cut. Powell had also cautioned on Wednesday against holding on too strongly to the forecasts. Treasury yields fell after Waller's comments, and as concerns about the Middle East conflict supported demand for safe haven bonds. The yield on benchmark 10-year notes fell 2 basis points to 4.375%, from 4.395% late on Wednesday. Demand rose for the U.S. dollar, pushing the greenback to a three-week high against the yen. The dollar rose 0.03% against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, with the euro up 0.3% at $1.1528. The index is poised to rise 0.6% this week. Prices for gold, another traditional refuge, fell 0.13% to $3,365.91 and were poised for a weekly loss.
