Is it safe to fly across the Middle East?

Huge areas of airspace in the Middle East have been closed to civil aviation as the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to intensify. In a notice to airlines, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) warned that 'ongoing military operations pose high risk not only to the airspace of Iran and Israel but also to that of neighbouring States affected by the hostilities and associated military activities, including interceptions.'
The advice continues: 'The possession of all-altitude capable air-defence systems, cruise and ballistic missiles and the use of air assets capable to operate at all-altitudes, including interception capability beyond the borders of Iran and Israel, make the entire affected airspace vulnerable to spill-over risks, misidentification, miscalculation and failure of interception procedures.'
Here's what you need to know about how the conflict affects your flight plans.
Israeli, Iranian and Iraqi airspace are closed until further notice. Syrian airspace remains closed until October 31, and while Lebanon and Jordan say they will keep their airspace open, both EASA and the US Federal Aviation Administration consider both to be high-risk zones.
Further afield, Ukrainian, Russian and Afghan airspace remain off limits to civil aviation, and EASA advises airlines crossing Pakistani and Indian airspace 'to take potential risk into account in their risk assessment and routing decisions'.
• Israel travel advice: is it safe to visit right now?
Like shutting down a motorway, the closure of vast areas of airspace forces traffic to seek alternative routes. That causes congestion, increasing journey times and disrupting timetables. The situation forces flights from the UK and Europe to Central and East Asia, India, the Maldives, Australia and New Zealand into two narrow corridors crossing Turkey along the shore of the Black Sea to the north, and over Egypt and across Saudi Arabia to the south.
That adds extra burden to air traffic controllers covering the congested areas, especially where rerouted flights enter already crowded European skies, and that can lead to delays. Flights to the Seychelles and Mauritius, which route down the Red Sea and across the Horn of Africa are not affected.
Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion airport is closed and all flights are cancelled until further notice. Bahrain and Amman in Jordan remain open, but British Airways has suspended departures to both up to and including June 30. Passengers connecting through Dubai with final destinations in Iraq, Iran, Jordan and Lebanon, and customers with onward connections with FlyDubai will not be accepted for travel at their point of origin until further notice.
Further delays, disruption and cancellations should be expected as the war continues.
Meanwhile, Air India cancelled its Delhi-Paris flight on Tuesday due to an undisclosed problem discovered during pre-flight checks on flight number AI 159 from Ahmedabad to London — the same route and using the same aircraft type, a Boeing 787-8, as that lost in the June 12 disaster. It was cancelled due to 'airspace restrictions and additional precautionary checks, leading to longer than usual turnaround of aircraft', said the airline.
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Because the Foreign Office now advises against all travel to Israel, your airline or tour operator can no longer fulfil their contract with you and are therefore obliged to offer you a choice of alternative travel or a full refund. 'Members might be able to offer you an alternative holiday,' said ABTA. 'If they can't, or if the alternative means a significant change to your original holiday, they must offer you a full refund of all money paid. If you've booked accommodation separately from your flight the provider could argue that because the room is available, the contract can be fulfilled and thus no refund is due.
If you are due to travel to destinations where there are no Foreign Office restrictions — including Dubai, Egypt, India, Jordan or Oman — but are worried about flight cancellations or disruptions, your desire to cancel is known as disinclination to travel. You may indeed cancel your holiday, but under the Package Travel and Linked Travel Arrangements Regulations 2018 — the law governing your consumer rights — you cannot claim a refund. However, you may be able to come to an arrangement with your tour operator. Explore's flexible booking policy, for example, allows you to transfer to another destination or departure, or receive a credit note minus non-refundable deposits and non-recoverable costs, up to ten days before departure.
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It always takes a while for oil price fluctuations to be reflected in ticket prices, but two factors could lead to increased airfares in coming months. First, rerouting around the warring nations takes longer, burns more fuel and therefore costs more. Airlines can choose to absorb the increased operational costs in order to stay competitive, or pass them on to the passenger.
Secondly, the cost of crude oil is rising, with prices up from $67.70 a barrel on June 12 — the day before Israel attacked Iran — to $75.16 at the time of writing. It could get worse: one third of the world's ship-borne oil, amounting to around 20 million barrels per day, is exported from Iran via the Strait of Hormuz. Iran says it is 'seriously considering' closing that route, potentially pushing the cost of crude to $120, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank.

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