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Oil hits five-month high after US hits key Iranian nuclear sites

Oil hits five-month high after US hits key Iranian nuclear sites

Business Times4 hours ago

[TOKYO] Oil prices jumped on Monday to their highest since January as Washington's weekend move to join Israel in attacking Iran's nuclear facilities stoked supply worries.
Brent crude futures rose US$1.88 or 2.44 per cent at US$78.89 a barrel as of 1122 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude advanced US$1.87 or 2.53 per cent at US$75.71.
Both contracts jumped by more than 3 per cent earlier in the session to US$81.40 and US$78.40, respectively, five-month highs, before giving up some gains.
The rise in prices came after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had 'obliterated' Iran's main nuclear sites in strikes over the weekend, joining an Israeli assault in an escalation of conflict in the Middle East as Tehran vowed to defend itself.
Iran is Opec's third-largest crude producer.
Market participants expect further price gains amid mounting fears that an Iranian retaliation may include a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global crude supply flows.
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Iran's Press TV reported that the Iranian parliament approved a measure to close the strait. Iran has in the past threatened to close the strait but has never followed through on the move.
'The risks of damage to oil infrastructure ... have multiplied,' said Sparta Commodities senior analyst June Goh.
Although there are alternative pipeline routes out of the region, there will still be crude volumes that cannot be fully exported out if the Strait of Hormuz becomes inaccessible. Shippers will increasingly stay out of the region, she added.
Brent has risen 13 per cent since the conflict began on June 13, while WTI has gained around 10 per cent.
The current geopolitical risk premium is unlikely to last without tangible supply disruptions, analysts said.
Meanwhile, the unwinding of some of the long positions accumulated following a recent price rally could cap an upside to oil prices, Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a market commentary on Sunday. REUTERS

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Singapore, Asia markets fall as oil surges after US airstrikes on Iran, raising fears of a supply shock
Singapore, Asia markets fall as oil surges after US airstrikes on Iran, raising fears of a supply shock

Straits Times

time38 minutes ago

  • Straits Times

Singapore, Asia markets fall as oil surges after US airstrikes on Iran, raising fears of a supply shock

SINGAPORE - Stock markets in Asia slid and oil prices soared on June 23 after US airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities raised the threat of further military escalation in a region that accounts for a third of global crude output. Singapore's Straits Times Index dropped 0.55 per cent as at 10.34am. The global oil benchmark Brent traded at US$76.75 a barrel, up 1.68 per cent, after surging 5.7 per cent to US$81.40 earlier in the morning. The United States on June 22 sent military jets to bomb three Iranian nuclear sites in a mission dubbed Operation Midnight Hammer. Analysts warned that if Iran chooses to target in retaliation one of the several US military bases across the region, it could invite counter strikes by the US and its regional allies, and send Brent to highs around US$139 a barrel seen during the onset of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Economic consequences of a move to block and cut supplies of crude and liquified natural gas flowing through the Strait of Hormuz - a narrow waterway on the shores of Iran that links the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and, ultimately, to the Indian Ocean and the rest of the world - could be even more disastrous. The International Monetary Fund estimates that a 10 per cent rise in oil prices lowers global gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points. The World Bank estimates suggest that a 10 per cent increase in oil prices raises headline or all-items inflation by 0.4 percentage points in a median economy. An oil price shock is transmitted rather quickly to prices of household essentials as they tend to push electricity tariffs and transport costs higher. Everything from imported food items to bus and train fares will become more expensive if oil prices maintain the surge from US$60 a barrel in early May 2025 to current levels. Ms Madhur Jha, Standard Chartered Bank's global economist and head of thematic research, said: ''A move above US$90 per barrel would constitute an oil price shock,'' adding oil price shocks are reflected in headline inflation within a quarter. StanChart placed Singapore 6th in global ranking of economies sensitive to rising oil prices. The Republic's net oil imports account for 4.5 per cent of GDP and transport costs constitute 13.1 per cent of its all-items inflation basket, the bank estimates. Mr Jonathan Ng, OCBC's Asean economist, said that given the fragile market risk sentiment a wider escalation could send Brent crude prices to as high as US$120 per barrel. This would be a 73 per cent spike on Brent's closing price of US$69.36 on June 12, the day before Israel launched its first attack on Iran. ''Under this circumstance, further sanctions on Iran and blockages of trade routes in the Strait of Hormuz cannot be ruled out, as this is a critical transit route for oil from the Middle East to the rest of the global oil market,'' he said. According to the International Energy Agency, an average of 20 million barrels per day of oil, or about 30 per cent of global seaborne oil trade, passed through the route between January-October 2023. However, so far Iran has not attacked any US assets in the region and has not made any moves to curtail flow of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian parliament has endorsed closing the strait, but experts believe the parliament has no effective authority to do so. Still the cost of hiring a ship to carry crude from the Middle East to China has jumped close to 90 per cent since before the June 13 Israeli attacks on Iran began. Earnings for vessels carrying fuels like gasoline and jet fuel have also leaped, as have insurance premiums paid shippers. There are also some mitigating factors when considering the closure of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates - world's top oil exporters - have the capacity to divert a meaningful portion of their current Gulf exports through pipelines, which would partially alleviate the adverse effects of any closure or major shipping disruptions. The alternate ports are however in the Red Sea and thus vulnerable if Yemen decides to join the fray. The US halted its bombing campaign against Yemen's Houthis last month after the Iran-aligned group agreed to stop targeting shipping in the Red Sea. The closure of Hormuz is always flagged as a risk whenever tension arises in the Middle East. But so far, despite Iran's repeated threats to do so, it has yet to follow through, due to the adverse consequences for its own oil outlet, let alone the potential response from the international community. Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.

Muslim countries to set up contact group to seek Israel-Iran de-escalation, World News
Muslim countries to set up contact group to seek Israel-Iran de-escalation, World News

AsiaOne

time43 minutes ago

  • AsiaOne

Muslim countries to set up contact group to seek Israel-Iran de-escalation, World News

ANKARA — The Organisation of Islamic Cooperation said on Sunday (June 22) it would set up a ministerial contact group to establish regular contact with international and regional parties to support de-escalation efforts after US and Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear sites. In a joint declaration following a meeting of the 57-member group's foreign ministers in Istanbul, the OIC condemned "the aggression of Israel" against Iran, stressing "the urgent need to stop Israeli attacks and their great concern regarding this dangerous escalation". It also urged the international community to take deterrent measures against attacks on Iran and "make Israel accountable for crimes committed". While the joint declaration from the meeting in Istanbul did not mention the overnight US strikes, the group also agreed on a separate 13-article resolution on the Israel-Iran conflict, in which it condemned both the Israeli and US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, adding the OIC was in full solidarity with Tehran. It also called on the International Atomic Energy Agency to "unequivocally condemn those attacks and to report those attacks to the Security Council," adding the "barbaric attacks" violated international law, according to a draft of the resolution. It said the OIC also called on Israel to "join without delay the treaty of Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and place all its nuclear facilities and activities under comprehensive IAEA safeguards." US ally Israel is the only country in the Middle East widely believed to have nuclear weapons and says it struck Iran to prevent Tehran from developing its own nuclear weapons. OIC members also reaffirmed Iran's "inherent right to self-defence and to take all necessary measures to fully protect its sovereignty and citizens, and to prevent recurrence of such criminal acts against its territory in future," the text showed. [[nid:719371]]

Trump doubles down on 'monumental damage' to Iran nuclear sites; impact of US strikes still unconfirmed
Trump doubles down on 'monumental damage' to Iran nuclear sites; impact of US strikes still unconfirmed

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  • CNA

Trump doubles down on 'monumental damage' to Iran nuclear sites; impact of US strikes still unconfirmed

WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump insisted on Sunday (Jun 22) that US strikes had destroyed Iranian nuclear sites, after other officials cautioned that the extent of damage was still unclear. "Monumental Damage was done to all Nuclear sites in Iran, as shown by satellite images. Obliteration is an accurate term!" Trump wrote on social media, without sharing the images he was referencing. "The biggest damage took place far below ground level. Bullseye!!!" he added. Commercial satellite imagery indicates the US attack on Iran's Fordow nuclear plant severely damaged - and possibly destroyed - the deeply buried site and the uranium-enriching centrifuges it housed, but there was no confirmation, experts said on Sunday. "They just punched through with these MOPs," said David Albright, a former UN nuclear inspector who heads the Institute for Science and International Security, referring to the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bunker-busting bombs that the US said it dropped. "I would expect that the facility is probably toast." But confirmation of the below-ground destruction could not be determined, noted Decker Eveleth, an associate researcher with the CNA Corporation who specialises in satellite imagery. The hall containing hundreds of centrifuges is "too deeply buried for us to evaluate the level of damage based on satellite imagery", he said. To defend against attacks such as the one conducted by US forces early on Sunday, Iran buried much of its nuclear programme in fortified sites deep underground, including into the side of a mountain at Fordow. Satellite images show six holes where the bunker-busting bombs appear to have penetrated the mountain, and then ground that looks disturbed and covered in dust. The United States and Israel have said they intend to halt Tehran's nuclear programme. But a failure to completely destroy its facilities and equipment could mean Iran could more easily restart the weapons programme that US intelligence and the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) say it shuttered in 2003.

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