Expectations are for higher inflation and lower growth, says RBC's Frances Donald
CNBC's Steve Liesman, Morgan Stanley's Jim Caron, JPMorgan's David Kelly and RBC's Frances Donald join 'Power Lunch' to discuss the expectations for interest rates, the Federal Reserve and much more.
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Morgan Stanley Argues That Shedding 1P Games Could Enhance AppLovin's (APP) Market Value
AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ:APP) is one of the best stocks to buy. On June 9, Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating on APP and lifted the price target to $460 from $420, noting that the company would be "more valuable without its 1P games." The analysts were bullish on AppLovin's initiative to sell its Apps segment, suggesting the move would create shareholder value while keeping future earnings steady. As reported in February, the company plans to shed its first-party mobile games division, called the Apps Segment, in the second quarter of 2025 to Tripledot Studios for $400 million in cash and $400 million in Tripledot stock. Morgan Stanley is bullish on this divestiture, even though the Apps segment generated 32% of AppLovin's revenue and 10% of EBITDA in 2024. The analysts commented that the sale would allow the company to achieve "high-margin revenue that the 1P studios spend on APP's ad network, offsetting most of the lost earnings from 1P games." A close-up of a mobile device, showing an advertiser reaching out to a consumer via a software-based platform. The tactical shift will redistribute profits "from the low multiple games business to the high multiple ad business, increasing the total value of the company." Morgan Stanley has revised its 2026 and 2027 EBITDA projections for AppLovin downward by 1%. However, the analysts are using a larger EBITDA multiple of 29x, up from the prior 26x. This update suggests a shift from the prior sum-of-the-parts valuation model, which placed a conservative 4x multiple on the Apps' EBITDA. AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ:APP) builds software tools that help advertisers and app developers grow and monetize their content across mobile and connected TV platforms. While we acknowledge the potential of APP as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: The Best and Worst Dow Stocks for the Next 12 Months and 10 Unstoppable Stocks That Could Double Your Money. Disclosure: None.
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Caris Life Sciences indicated to open at $30, IPO priced at $21 per share
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CNBC
3 hours ago
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China's property sector has been in an extended slump. Shrinking population is making it worse
China's real estate sector has grappled with a deepening downturn for years. Now a shrinking population is casting another shadow over the stagnant property market. Goldman Sachs estimates that demand for new homes in Chinese urban cities will remain suppressed at under 5 million units per year in the coming years — one fourth of the peak of 20 million units in 2017. "Falling population and slowing urbanization suggest decreasing demographic demand for housing" in the coming years, Goldman Sachs economists said in a note Monday. The country's population is estimated to fall to below 1.39 billion by 2035 from 1.41 billion, according to World Bank's latest data, said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at Economist Intelligence Unit, citing a combination of fewer newborns and more deaths from an ageing population. Shrinking population will cripple home demand by 0.5 million units every year in the 2020s and a lead to a bigger dent of 1.4 million units annually in the 2030s, Goldman Sachs estimates, compared to the positive contribution of 1.5 million units in the 2010s when population was on a steady rise. Fertility rate in the country has continued to fall even after Beijing relaxed its one-child policy in 2016, and despite Beijing's efforts to incentivize child-bearing via cash incentives. Stagnant incomes, instability over job prospects and a poor social security system have dissuaded Chinese young people from having more babies. Beijing's pronatalist policies will likely have "limited effect" as they do not address the deep-rooted issues, Xu said, such as high economic costs for child-bearing and people's tendency to postpone marriage for career progression and "an embrace of individuality." Underscoring the declining birth rates, nearly 36,000 kindergartens across the country closed down over the past two years, with the number of students in preschools falling by over 10 million. That's according to CNBC's calculation of the official data released the Ministry of Education. Similarly, the number of elementary schools dropped by nearly 13,000 between 2022 and 2024. That is rippling through school-adjacent housing markets that once saw inflated prices on the back of strong demand for better public schools. The once-sizable premium was fueled by access to elite schools and expectations of rising property values. But with a shrinking population and local governments scaling back district-based enrollment policies, the added value of these homes has started diminishing, according to William Wu, China property analyst at Daiwa Capital Markets. A mother of a 7-year-old boy in Beijing told CNBC that the price of her apartment had fallen by about 20% from over two years ago when she bought it. It cost her roughly twice the average price for an apartment in the city, so that her son could attend a good elementary school. The number of children entering primary school in 2023 reached the highest level in over two decades, according to Wind Information, before dropping in 2024, the year her son enrolled. That demographic shift is an additional overhang to the property market, which has struggled to emerge from a painful downturn since late 2020. Despite a raft of central and local government measures since last September, the real estate slump has shown little sign of abating. New home prices fell at their fastest pace in seven months in May, according to Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, extending a two-year stagnation, despite the government efforts aimed at arresting the decline. New home sales in 30 major cities fell by 11% year on year in the first half of this month, worsening from the 3% drop in May, Hu said. "Holders of investment properties are likely to be net sellers (to owner-occupiers) for the foreseeable future," over expectations that home prices will continue to fall, Goldman Sachs estimates. While Goldman expects the rise in China's urbanization rate to temper in the coming years, hurting urban housing demand, Wu said demographic drag on the property market was not yet "imminent" and may take decades to play out. In the nearer term, "some of this decline will be offset by continued urbanization, and housing upgrade demand," Wu said, as the latter would account for an increasing share of China's total housing demand.
