What a commercial crewed moon mission could look like
Sometime in the near future, if all goes well, a billion or more video screens will show the image of a stainless-steel tower on the lunar surface, the Starship Human Landing System. Then, a close-up of the elevator will follow, bearing two space-suited astronauts from the crew compartment to the base of the lander.
The two astronauts will discuss the landscape before them and the condition of the lander, especially the landing legs.
Then will come the big moment. One of the astronauts will put boots on the lunar surface and will say something profound for the billions watching. For the first time since Apollo 17 in December 1972, humans from the planet Earth will walk on the moon. It will be the beginning of an era of lunar exploration.
But, as a recent piece in Ars Technica suggests, it will be the end of an era of Apollo-style voyages of exploration. It will be the last mission of the heavy lift, uber-expensive Space Launch System and (at least in its current form) the Orion spacecraft, flying in lunar orbit as the scene we just presented takes place.
The Artemis IV mission will be the first of what can best be called Lunar Commercial Orbital Transfer Services. Just as travel to and from low Earth orbit has gone commercial, so will voyages to and from the moon.
According to Ars Technica, 'Under the [Lunar Commercial Orbital Transfer Services] model, NASA provides funding and guidance to private companies to develop their own spacecraft, rockets, and services, and then buys those at a 'market' rate.'
The Lunar Commercial Orbital Transfer Services would be far more complex than the original commercial crew.
'Sources indicate NASA would go to industry and seek an 'end-to-end' solution for lunar missions. That is, an integrated plan to launch astronauts from Earth, land them on the Moon, and return them to Earth.'
SpaceX is an obvious contender for a Lunar Commercial Orbital Transfer Services contract. In the scenario we have presented, the Starship Human Landing System will already have been proven.
Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin, with its Blue Moon lunar lander under development and the heavy-lift New Glenn, would be another. Other companies will no doubt step forward.
The advantage of going the commercial route is that it makes lunar exploration, especially the creation of a lunar base, sustainable.
Commercial Orbital Transfer Services and Commercial Crew have reduced the cost of operating the International Space Station and promise to enable the creation of commercial space stations that are planned to replace the ISS. The same applies to the moon.
Lunar Commercial Orbital Transfer Services will likely allow visits of private astronauts to the moon, just as Commercial Crew (like Jared Isaacman's Inspiration4 and Polaris Dawn flights) enabled private visits to low Earth orbit.
The disadvantage of the commercial approach is entirely political. Progressive politicians such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) have occupied a lot of breath and bandwidth slamming tech billionaires such as Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos for spending money on space exploration.
A few years ago, Sanders declared, 'I am concerned that NASA has become little more than an ATM machine to fuel a space race not between the U.S. and other countries, but between the two wealthiest men in America — Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos.'
The senator went on to decry the very idea of mining asteroids for their vast mineral wealth. He suggested that commercializing space exploration would allow people like Musk and Bezos to hoard that wealth, displaying a misunderstanding of how free-market capitalism works.
If Artemis III takes place in the waning days of the second Trump administration, the first commercial crewed lunar flight will likely take place in the early days of the next presidency.
Considering that the Democrats are talking about running Sanders's protégé, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), for president in 2028, Lunar Commercial Orbital Transfer Services may become an issue in that election. Vice President JD Vance, or whoever the Republicans run in that year, had best be ready.
Jared Isaacman, the moment he is sworn in as NASA administrator, should get the ball rolling for Lunar Commercial Orbital Transfer Services. The commercial lunar program is vital for the establishment of a lunar base, an immediate priority for NASA and its commercial and international partners.
The process of commercializing travel to the moon and back could be a lengthy one. Commercial Crew took 10 years between the first proposals in 2011 and the first flight of the Crew Dragon in 2021.
Lunar Commercial Orbital Transfer Services should not take that long, four or five years at most, if everything goes right.
Thus, human civilization will extend across space to the surface of the moon.
Mark R. Whittington, who writes frequently about space policy, has published a political study of space exploration entitled 'Why is It So Hard to Go Back to the Moon?' as well as 'The Moon, Mars and Beyond'and, most recently, 'Why is America Going Back to the Moon?' He blogs at Curmudgeons Corner.
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