2026 World Cup predictions: With one year to go, here are some (very) early predictions
The 2026 World Cup kicks off in the USA, Mexico and Canada on June 11, 2026, so that's one year from today and with that in mind it felt like a good time to reveal some predictions.
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Of course, these are incredibly early predictions given the fact that only a handful of teams have booked their spot in the newly-expanded 48-team tournament, but there's still plenty of fun to be had imagining how epic next summer is going to be and predicting how it will all play out.
MORE — Which teams have qualified for the 2026 World Cup?
Okay, here are my (very, very early) 2026 World Cup predictions.
One of the host nations will go on a very deep run
There have never been three host nations of a World Cup before, so the odds of one of them doing well is higher than normal. I hear you. But this feels like one of the host nations is peaking at exactly the right time. And it's not the one you think. Canada. Jesse Marsch's side have Alphonso Davies, Jonathan David, Cyle Larin, Tajon Buchanan, Alistair Johnston and Stephen Eustaquio all hitting their prime together and playing on some huge teams in Europe. There is a great balance and togetherness about this Canada team. They feel like a club team and Marsch's high-energy approach will ruffle plenty of feathers. Look out for Canada to make a deep run and both Mexico and the USMNT can only hope they're anywhere near Canada in terms of solidity and squad depth when the World Cup begins.
Weather conditions will be a huge factor
There have been very few headlines about it so far, but we all know how hot it gets in North America over the summer months. The heat is going to be a huge factor. Of course, teams will acclimatize and prepare but most of the domestic league seasons in Europe finish just two weeks before the 2026 World Cup kicks off. That doesn't give players that much time to adjust to the new climate. Several stadiums in the U.S. have the ability to host games indoors (Houston, Dallas, Atlanta and SoFi) and so does BC Place in Vancouver, Canada. But next summer there will be a huge advantage for teams who are used to playing in warmer, more humid conditions. You will hear a lot more about this in the coming 12 months.
Mbappe will leave Messi, Ronaldo behind and become highest scorer in World Cup history
When it comes to scoring goals and being general GOATs we know Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo are legends. But Messi has scored 12 goals across five World Cup tournaments to put him sixth all-time. Ronaldo has scored just eight goals across the same number of tournaments. As for France's Kylian Mbappe, well, he's played in two World Cups and scored 12 goals already. This is the World Cup where Mbappe will overtake Messi in terms of goals scored at a World Cup and to do that in three fewer tournament is just absolutely bonkers. Messi will turn 38 during the tournament next summer. Ronaldo will be 41. Mbappe? He will be 27 and have at least another two World Cups in him. Miroslav Klose's record of 16 World Cup goals is probably going to go next summer and Mbappe's impending record may never be beaten.
Several giants will struggle
With the new expanded format it will be tough for most teams to not make it out of the group stage. But there are quite a few big boys who could struggle mightily. Brazil's squad is lumpy, stacked in certain areas but very thin in others, and new manager Carlo Ancelotti will have to be pragmatic and the balance is just off for Brazil. Their qualifying struggles prove they will have a poor World Cup unless something drastic changes. When you look elsewhere, you can also see the likes of Germany and Italy (if they qualify) struggling because they're in the middle of talent cycles. They are being forced to rely on veterans or players who are inexperienced and like Brazil they have very talented individuals but the overall balance is off.
Predicting the dark horses
Okay, there are going to be a few teams in this list who have yet to qualify but they're looking pretty good and I'd back them to go far next summer. Norway is the obvious choice as they're flying in qualifying as they have a solid defense and the talent of Erling Haaland, Martin Odegaard, Antonio Nusa, Alexander Sorloth and Oscar Bobb in attack. Another team to watch out for is Japan. I'm not sure we can call them dark horses as they should have made an even deeper run than the last 16 in the 2022 World Cup, but with Mitoma, Endo and Kubo leading the way they are so well balanced and dominated qualifying in Asia. Another three teams I'm keeping a close eye on are Colombia, Ecuador and Paraguay. All three have impressed throughout South American qualifying and have tight-knit units. Colombia have the talent to go the furthest but Ecuador are solid and their defense and midfield is so tough to break down. Paraguay have a great crop of youngsters coming through too. Also, don't sleep on Turkiye, Switzerland or Sweden from Europe either, as all three nations have rising stars and experienced heads and a nice balance about them.
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