How the Islamist surge in Bangladesh is a threat to India too

A classified intelligence report jointly compiled by several national and regional agencies between August 2024 and March 2025 has revealed a disturbing resurgence of Islamist extremist activity in Bangladesh, posing a significant threat to the country's democratic transition and regional stability. Based on social network analysis, human intelligence and on-ground surveillance, the report traces the regrouping of radical factions in and around Dhaka, linking this phenomenon to an organised effort to derail Bangladesh's political recovery ahead of the national elections recently announced by interim leader Muhammad Yunus for early April 2026.The intelligence assessment outlines how a hardline Islamist network—drawing elements from Hizb ut-Tahrir, Islamic State and Ansarullah Bangla Team—has been rebuilding its infrastructure, particularly among Dhaka's youth and religious fringe. This network is believed to be the main force behind the mobilisation of the so-called Towhidi Janata mobs, responsible for recent attacks on mazaars (Sufi shrines), minority communities and public institutions. Intelligence officials warn that these groups are operating with an alarming degree of coordination, staging blockades in front of Shahbagh Police Station, RAB headquarters and even Kashimpur Jail, in addition to storming the offices of mainstream newspapers such as Prothom Alo and The Daily Star. Over 50 public 'religious' seminars have been organised in the past six months across Bangladesh—nominally spiritual events, but in fact used to identify, vet and recruit new members for regional extremist cells.advertisementWhat has further alarmed intelligence agencies is the systematic establishment of 18 to 20 gymnasiums and martial arts centres around the country. These are not just fitness centres—they serve as hubs of ideological indoctrination and militant training. The new recruits, particularly disillusioned young men mostly from conservative backgrounds, are trained physically and mentally to serve the radical Islamist networks that seek to upset Bangladesh's fragile political balance.At the ideological front, three radical preachers—Enayetullah Abbasi, Abu Toha Muhammad Adnan and Rafiqul Islam Madani—are spearheading a campaign of hate speech and veiled incitement to violence. Intelligence reports suggest they have rallied around Mufti Harun Ijhar, a known extremist formerly associated with Hifazat-e-Islam and arrested in 2021. Since August last year, these preachers have travelled extensively across rural districts, publicly endorsing Mufti Ijhar's call for an Islamic revival and using populist rhetoric to present themselves as the voice of 'real Muslims' in opposition to the secular state.advertisement
A disturbing layer to this emerging ecosystem is the role of sympathetic media figures. A journalist affiliated with a popular Bangla daily has been named in the report as a key propagandist and enabler of Ijhar's network. This person, closely associated with the daily's editor and a Bangladeshi ideologue, has allegedly worked to suppress coverage of Islamist violence in mainstream media. He also collaborates with controversial YouTuber Elias Hossain to craft misleading narratives that portray Bangladesh as free from extremism—despite mounting evidence to the contrary.The intelligence report identifies 15 individuals embedded in various professional domains such as healthcare, academia, digital content creation and religious education, who are operating as covert recruiters and propagandists for Hizb ut-Tahrir and Islamic State affiliates. Recruits are often drawn from elite institutions, including the Bangladesh University of Engineering and technology (BUET) and private universities, where they are groomed to act as 'sleeper agents' and 'ideological multipliers'.The report outlines three competing but overlapping hypotheses regarding the motivations of these networks. The first posits that the extremists are deliberately fomenting chaos in order to delay or disrupt the upcoming election and create conditions favourable for a covert military or ideological takeover. The second suggests these groups may be acting at the behest of a powerful interest group—possibly with foreign links—that seeks to prevent the election from taking place on time, thereby preserving a transitional status quo favourable to their strategic interests. The third, longer-term strategy appears to involve weakening the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) through a sustained campaign of propaganda and intimidation.advertisementBy reducing the BNP's projected seat count and rendering it incapable of forming a stable government, Islamist factions hope to gain parliamentary leverage—particularly under the Yunus government's proposed reforms that grant more power to the opposition. Over time, this could pave the way for an incremental Islamist capture of Bangladesh's political system through legal and electoral mechanisms.India, which shares a porous 4,096-km border with Bangladesh, has taken note of these developments with deep concern. The resurgence of Islamist extremism in a neighbouring state carries immediate implications for border security, communal harmony in West Bengal and Assam, and cross-border terrorism. The use of digital platforms to radicalise individuals in Bangladesh could easily be replicated across the border, especially in vulnerable minority-dense districts. Indian intelligence officials have already red-flagged signs of ideological spillover and potential infiltration routes being tested along the border.Amid these threats, the response from the interim Yunus government has been notably restrained. Despite repeated red flags raised by national and foreign security agencies, key figures with open links to internationally proscribed organisations are operating with near impunity. Public seminars, inflammatory sermons and strategic recruitment drives have continued unabated. While Yunus has publicly committed to holding free and fair elections in April 2026, his administration's reluctance to crack down on rising extremism has raised serious questions about its priorities and political calculations. Some analysts believe the leniency stems from an unwillingness to alienate powerful religious groups or stir controversy ahead of elections. Others fear that parts of the interim establishment may view the Islamists as a counterweight to both the Awami League and the BNP.advertisementThe joint intelligence report concludes with a warning that unless urgent and coordinated action is taken—both by Dhaka and its regional partners—the Islamist resurgence could reverse years of progress in secular governance and democratic institution-building in Bangladesh. For India, the report serves as a stark reminder that the next phase of regional instability may not arise from across its western frontier—but from its east.Subscribe to India Today Magazineadvertisement

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