Listen to The Country online: Save Our Sheep with Federated Farmers' Toby Williams
Today on The Country radio show, host Jamie Mackay catches up with Federated Farmers' meat and wool chairman Tobu Williams to talk about a new campaign called Save Our Sheep, aimed at halting the collapse of New Zealand's sheep industry.
Also, be in to win a Stihl MZ182 chainsaw.
On with the show:
Toby Williams:
Federated Farmers' meat and wool chairman launches a new campaign, SOS: Save Our Sheep, calling for urgent action to halt the collapse of New Zealand's sheep industry.
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We need to see the sheep for the trees, Richard Holloway writes. There is trouble down on the farm with a turf war heating up between two of New Zealand's larger export sectors — sheep and forestry. In the latest iteration of its "Save our Sheep" campaign, Federated Farmers has released a pseudo David Attenborough video that shamelessly likens sheep to an endangered species, squarely focusing the blame on exotic forestry. You would have to laugh if it was not serious. Sheep numbers have declined dramatically since 1990 — by about 60% — but the reasons why do not match the anti-forestry rhetoric of the campaign. The area of exotic forest has been stable for over 20 years. In 2002, New Zealand's exotic forest area totalled 1.78 million ha. By 2020 — the most recent year for which Statistics New Zealand holds land use data — this had decreased by 10% to 1.6m ha. A 2024 study by Orme & Associates (commissioned by Beef + Lamb NZ) found 146,331ha of sheep and beef land was sold for forestry conversion from 2021 to mid-2024. This figure was based on planting intentions — not actual area planted — and included farm sales still awaiting approval. Combining the 2020 statistics with the O&A data to mid-2024 brings the total to 1.75m ha — marginally less than the total area of the forest estate reported in 2002. And this assumes that none of the baseline forest area reported in 2020 has since been deforested. Additional land has been sold for forestry since mid-2024, but planting has slowed. Fewer seedling orders, reduced planting contracts and minimal Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) participation all suggest a waning momentum. The political winds have shifted, putting the brakes on forestry by tightening the rules for registering land in the ETS, particularly whole-farm conversions. Late last year, the government introduced a moratorium on registering exotic forestry on land use capability (LUC) classes 1-5, and a hard cap of 15,000ha per year for new exotic forest plantings on LUC 6. The conclusion is that the area of land planted in exotic forest is, at most, not much more than it was way back in 2002. That is two decades with relatively little net change. So, it is implausible that increased forest area is the main reason for declining sheep numbers. Dicing this another way, most new forest planting occurs on LUC 6 and 7 land. Even if we are generous and assume this land supports on average 10 sheep per hectare, the math still does not add up. If forestry was the main reason for declining sheep numbers, the area of exotic forests would need to have expanded by 3.4m ha since 1990. The real causes for declining sheep numbers are well known. A major driver is that land has shifted to more profitable uses, especially dairy, which grew nearly 80% between 2002 and 2020. Productivity per animal has increased significantly, particularly in terms of lambing percentages and slaughter weights, resulting in higher production from fewer breeding animals. At the same time, sheep farmers have faced highly variable output prices and rapidly increasing production costs. The strong-wool industry has been decimated by changing consumer preferences and the market clout of the petrochemical industry. As synthetic fibres surged, wool has been relegated to the status of a low-value nuisance byproduct. Farmer demographics are shifting, with an average age of 58 and rising, due to the difficulty of attracting and retaining new entrants. Throw in significantly increased regulation and compliance costs and you have got the real culprits driving the decline in sheep numbers. Not forestry. Profitability of forestry outperforms sheep hands down. Being able to generate regular income from the sale of carbon is a bonus, providing cashflow that smooths the volatility of sheep and beef returns. On the environment front, there is sound evidence that forestry is a more environmentally sustainable land-use than pastoral farming on much of New Zealand's steeper hill country. Trees reduce sediment loss, landslips, and improve water quality and biodiversity outcomes vis-a-vis pasture. The one caveat to this is at harvest, which must be appropriately managed to mitigate environmental damage. Farmers are highly exposed to the effects of a changing climate. For many, forestry is a way to make a small and positive contribution to the emerging climate crisis. Sooner or later New Zealand's agricultural sector will be held to account for its greenhouse gas contributions. Forestry provides some farm-level insurance for when that happens. Changing land use is an integral part of a functioning market economy. We are no longer running sheep on prime dairy land on the Canterbury Plains, or milking cows on prime kiwifruit land in the Bay of Plenty. Where farmers are deciding to plant exotic forestry, this should be applauded as an entirely rational and legitimate land use choice. By all means, let us have a discussion on the decline of the sheep industry, but a little more attention to the facts and a little less stoking of anti-forestry sentiment would better reflect the standard of evidence-based advocacy that Federated Farmers once held itself to. • Richard Holloway is a Canterbury-based farmer-forester and agricultural economist.
