Now that Rockliff is toppled, what will happen to Devils AFL team and stadium?
As political turmoil continues to engulf Tasmania, the Devils AFL team remains at high risk of becoming collateral damage.
But depending on who you speak to, the level of danger for Tasmania's fledgling AFL club varies.
On one side, there is a view that the no-confidence motion moved against Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff has no material effect on Tasmania's plans to build the Macquarie Point stadium and, thus, enter the AFL.
The argument is that even though an election has been triggered, the worst-case scenario is an upcoming parliamentary vote on the Macquarie Point stadium will simply be delayed for a few months — and when the dust has settled, the team and stadium train will roll on.
But there are fundamental flaws with that argument, and they are two-fold.
The first relates to contractual timelines that the Tasmanian government must meet per its contract with the AFL for a team — and a crucial one is to be met by June 30.
That is the cut-off for obtaining all required planning and environmental approvals for the stadium.
The stadium — pivotal to the Devils survival — has bounced from one planning process to another. Rightly or wrongly, the government has tabled legislation aimed at bypassing the Project of State Significance process bid to fast track the stadium, cognisant of looming deadlines.
A vote to pass or deny that legislation — which, if passed, would have granted planning approval for the stadium — is due in the coming weeks.
An election does not simply delay that.
It obliterates it.
It will mean the parliament is dissolved and puts the vote itself in doubt.
It is true, timelines agreed upon in early 2023 have been bent and massaged over the past two years. And on current timelines, the vote would fall just outside the June 30 cut-off.
But a week or two is small potatoes. An election will be a roast dinner.
The Devils' high performance centre — which faced steep geotechnical hurdles at the club's preferred site of Rosny, and was subject to an elector poll of Clarence City residents — has also been pushed back.
But that was a year ago, and the centre still remains on track to be built.
The real threat lies in the uncertainty and the make-up of a future parliament which nobody knows what it will look like — not even the Labor party.
It is what prompted tears from Devils boss Kath McCann on Wednesday, and chief executive Brendon Gale to declare that an election puts the team "at risk".
If Tasmanians are marched to the ballot box, the current make-up of the state's lower house will change.
The government will most likely change too. However, what is highly unlikely is either major party winning a majority of seats in the parliament.
This is where the Devils are snookered.
It is extremely likely that whoever wins the most seats will need the support of the Greens or the crossbench to form government, and neither major party will deal with the Greens.
That leaves a hodgepodge of currently unknown independents that will be relied upon. And while the numbers in the lower house may change, the flavour of the crossbench will probably remain the same.
That flavour is strongly anti-stadium.
While the Labor and Liberal parties both support the stadium and the team, that matters for little if neither are able to form government without convincing anti-stadium crossbenchers to flip — and that will be first chip those crossbenchers attempt to cash.
Which independent will support a minority government without demanding the stadium be dropped?
Will pro-stadium independents be elected, when the stadium remains grossly unpopular amongst the Tasmanian public?
Even if the Liberals had opted to change leader instead of opting for an election, which of their members would have garnered crossbench support without being required to drop the stadium and therefore the team?
There was no path, without a significant change of heart from one of the two vehemently anti-stadium independents who are currently in support of Labor's no-confidence motion.
And while the government was propped up by supply and confidence agreements from independents, some of them anti-stadium, a number of those agreements are not even with the Liberals but with Mr Rockliff himself.
Even David O'Byrne, the staunchly pro-stadium and team independent, would not have supported a leader of the Liberal party not named Jeremy Rockliff.
Mr O'Byrne's sister, Michelle O'Byrne, is the speaker of the house. It had been suggested she could use her casting vote to, as former Premier Peter Gutwein said, "end the madness".
That didn't happen, such is her Labor allegiance.
That leaves the last pathway — the AFL.
There is zero prospect of the AFL removing the condition for a stadium at Macquarie Point.
It simply won't fly with the 18 club presidents who already needed their arms twisted to agree to the current deal.
Other material changes, like the requirement for a roof on the stadium, also won't be up for negotiation.
Rumours continue to swirl of a Labor pivot to the proposed Stadium 2.0 proposal, but the ABC understands the party has told the Devils that is not in their plans.
The ABC also understands that the Stadium 2.0 proposal is looked upon even less favourably than the Macquarie Point stadium by a large chunk of the Tasmanian Parliament, including the Greens.
Where there may be some bend is on timelines.
There exists a world where the AFL allows an election to run its course, and if whoever forms government somehow manages to keep its pro-stadium position intact, perhaps things can continue, albeit delayed.
That is the hope of Labor but it is a huge if, and an enormously high-stakes gamble.
And at this stage, that is currently all the hope the Devils have.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
News.com.au
2 hours ago
- News.com.au
Storm claim golden point thriller
RLG: Despite an impressive fight back from South Sydney to force golden point, the Storm have found a way to win a golden point thriller with a Ryan Papenhuyzen field goal.
News.com.au
2 hours ago
- News.com.au
Did Saints take Nick Daicos tag too far?
AFL: The Fox Footy panel discuss Marcus Windhager's tag on Nick Daicos and get Collingwood coach Craig McRae's thoughts on it.
Courier-Mail
2 hours ago
- Courier-Mail
England vs India first Test: Jofra Archer injury, Ashes dates, highlights
Don't miss out on the headlines from Cricket. Followed categories will be added to My News. England captain Ben Stokes says Jofra Archer is 'absolutely desperate' to be involved in the upcoming home series against India and so revive a Test career that has been stalled for more than four years. Archer enjoyed a spectacular start with England in 2019. The Barbados-born fast bowler played a key role in the team's 50-over World Cup final win at Lord's and made his presence felt in a dramatic drawn Ashes series with Australia. For all his undeniable talent, a succession of injury problems have blighted the Sussex speedster's career. Archer played the last of his 13 Tests in February 2021. England have kept faith with Archer. He is due to make his first-class return for Sussex against Durham on Sunday as part of a plan that could see him feature during a five-match series with India that starts at Headingley on Friday. X SUBSCRIBER ONLY Archer's latest rehabilitation has been delayed by a broken thumb, although that did not stop the 30-year-old pushing for what might have been a rushed return in last month's one-off Test against Zimbabwe. 'He's been absolutely desperate to put the white shirt back on,' Stokes told a pre-match press conference at Headingley on Thursday. 'Randomly, a couple of times, he would just send me a text saying, 'Zim?' 'I was like, 'let's just hold it there, all right. I know you're in a good spot right now, but let's not just rush into it'.' Stokes added: 'He's obviously had a horrific time with injuries, but he's had some good amount of cricket, albeit in the white-ball formats. 'It's really exciting for England, but also more exciting for Jof that he's in a position now where we're able to have a plan in place and hopefully him get through something to actually be considered for selection for Test cricket.' X SUBSCRIBER ONLY Express quick Archer's return would be a boost to England's attack as they prepare to face two major rivals over the next seven months, with an Ashes tour of Australia following the India series. Were he to become an Ashes-winning skipper 'Down Under', Stokes would join a select group of England captains, although the all-rounder himself says he is not concerned by his place in cricket history. 'Defining a career as England captain isn't something that I sit there and really think about, honestly,' he said. 'If that's what I'm really bothered about, in my opinion it's just completely and utterly selfish and that ain't me. 'jdg/pb Originally published as England vs India first Test: Jofra Archer eyes return after overcoming injury
