Analysts Downgrade Genting Malaysia, After Sharp Drop In Q1 Profits
CIMB Investment Bank Bhd (CIMB Securities) has downgraded Genting Malaysia Bhd (GENM) to HOLD from Buy, with a sharply lower target price of RM1.95 from RM2.45, while Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) has reiterated its HOLD call with a revised target price of RM1.82, as both research houses flagged significant earnings pressure from weaker-than-expected performance across domestic and international operations.
GENM's core net profit for the first quarter of FY25 fell 78% year-on-year to RM52 million, which CIMB said was impacted by a broad-based earnings decline across Resorts World Genting (RWG), the US, and UK segments, compounded by higher net interest cost and an elevated effective tax rate. The results were well below expectations, coming in at only 9% and 8% of CIMB Securities' and consensus full-year forecasts, respectively. HLIB similarly noted that GENM's RM31.1 million core profit for the quarter missed its projection by a wide margin, at just 6% of its FY25 estimate.
RWG's gross gaming revenue (GGR) was a key concern, declining 7% year-on-year and 9% quarter-on-quarter, driven mainly by a significant drop in VIP play, which fell 18% year-on-year. Although mass market GGR grew by 7%, it was not enough to offset the overall weakness. CIMB Securities highlighted that hilltop visitations dipped 2% year-on-year, likely impacted by the earlier timing of Hari Raya compared to 2024, which affected non-gaming activities. Meanwhile, EBITDA for the group fell 11% year-on-year to RM869 million, with EBITDA margins shrinking to 31.9%.
In the US and Bahamas, EBITDA contracted 22% year-on-year, pressured by higher labour costs and a weaker US dollar against the ringgit. In the UK and Egypt, earnings fell 25% year-on-year under similar conditions, though they were flat quarter-on-quarter. Share of associate losses from Empire Resorts also widened sequentially. HLIB noted that while revenue in the US & Bahamas rose 8.6% quarter-on-quarter, group-wide earnings recovery was insufficient to match past performance due to structural headwinds in international markets.
CIMB Securities revised its core earnings estimates down by 37–39% for FY25–27, expecting a 29% drop in FY25 earnings before a modest 12% recovery in FY26, aided by anticipated tourist inflows during Visit Malaysia Year. HLIB likewise slashed its forecasts by 36–40%, citing persistently high finance costs, tax burdens and operating volatility in the US.
Despite the earnings headwinds, both brokers pointed out GENM's dividend yields remain relatively attractive at 5.5–6.6% over FY25–27. However, CIMB Securities stressed that valuation at an FY25 EV/EBITDA of 8.3x is only modestly attractive, trading at a 12% discount to its 10-year pre-COVID average. Upside risk remains in the form of a possible full casino licence in Downstate New York, which CIMB Securites estimates could add 40–50 sen to its target price.
GENM shares closed at RM1.82 on 30 May, giving the group a market capitalisation of RM10.26 billion. Related
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Sun
2 days ago
- The Sun
Auto sector to have minimum impact from SST expansion
KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Securities Sdn Bhd has projected the upcoming Sales and Service Tax (SST) expansion in July 2025 to have a limited direct impact on the automotive sector. In a research note, it said vehicle sales are already subject to a 10 per cent sales tax, while maintenance and repair services incur an 8.0 per cent service tax. 'That said, there may be a slight increase in dealership and showroom rental costs due to the measure, although we believe the impact will be minimal. 'Indirectly, however, weaker consumer sentiment could weigh on new vehicle sales in the second half of 2025 (2H 2025),' it said. The Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) has reportedly projected a 4.5 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in total industry volume (TIV) to 780,000 units in 2025, attributing this to demand normalisation and a reduced industry order backlog. CIMB Securities has, however, forecasted a sharper 7.0 per cent y-o-y decline in TIV to 760,000 units, due to potential headwinds from the planned removal of the RON95 petrol subsidy in 2H 2025, which Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has affirmed will proceed as part of the government's subsidy rationalisation. 'Despite this, we expect demand in the sub-RM100,000 segment to remain resilient, supported by national brands and selective entry-level Japanese models. 'We project national brands to retain a dominant 64.5 per cent market share in 2025, with non-national marques accounting for the remaining 35.5 per cent,' it said. CIMB Securities also believed the removal of fuel subsidies could accelerate battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption. BEV sales nearly doubled y-o-y in 1Q 2025 to 5,394 units from 2,703 units a year ago, with combined BEV and hybrid penetration rising 1.9 percentage points y-o-y to 7.3 per cent. 'With full duty exemptions for imported electric vehicles (EVs) set to expire by end-2025, and the government unlikely to extend it beyond the Dec 31, 2025 deadline, we expect a potential spike in EV demand in 4Q 2025 as buyers rush to benefit from tax savings,' it said. CIMB Securities has maintained its 'Neutral' rating on the sector due to a subdued growth outlook amid intensifying market competition.
The Sun
2 days ago
- The Sun
Auto sector to have minimum impact from SST
KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Securities Sdn Bhd has projected the upcoming Sales and Service Tax (SST) expansion in July 2025 to have a limited direct impact on the automotive sector. In a research note, it said vehicle sales are already subject to a 10 per cent sales tax, while maintenance and repair services incur an 8.0 per cent service tax. 'That said, there may be a slight increase in dealership and showroom rental costs due to the measure, although we believe the impact will be minimal. 'Indirectly, however, weaker consumer sentiment could weigh on new vehicle sales in the second half of 2025 (2H 2025),' it said. The Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) has reportedly projected a 4.5 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in total industry volume (TIV) to 780,000 units in 2025, attributing this to demand normalisation and a reduced industry order backlog. CIMB Securities has, however, forecasted a sharper 7.0 per cent y-o-y decline in TIV to 760,000 units, due to potential headwinds from the planned removal of the RON95 petrol subsidy in 2H 2025, which Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has affirmed will proceed as part of the government's subsidy rationalisation. 'Despite this, we expect demand in the sub-RM100,000 segment to remain resilient, supported by national brands and selective entry-level Japanese models. 'We project national brands to retain a dominant 64.5 per cent market share in 2025, with non-national marques accounting for the remaining 35.5 per cent,' it said. CIMB Securities also believed the removal of fuel subsidies could accelerate battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption. BEV sales nearly doubled y-o-y in 1Q 2025 to 5,394 units from 2,703 units a year ago, with combined BEV and hybrid penetration rising 1.9 percentage points y-o-y to 7.3 per cent. 'With full duty exemptions for imported electric vehicles (EVs) set to expire by end-2025, and the government unlikely to extend it beyond the Dec 31, 2025 deadline, we expect a potential spike in EV demand in 4Q 2025 as buyers rush to benefit from tax savings,' it said. CIMB Securities has maintained its 'Neutral' rating on the sector due to a subdued growth outlook amid intensifying market competition.
New Straits Times
2 days ago
- New Straits Times
HLIB cuts Astro forecasts after weak Q1 results, maintains 'sell' at 13 sen
KUALA LUMPUR: Astro Malaysia Holdings Bhd is expected to face limited near-term catalysts amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment and ongoing structural shifts in the media industry, according to Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd (HLIB). HLIB said Astro continues to grapple with mounting structural challenges, particularly due to cord-cutting trends and intensifying competition from over-the-top platforms. The firm noted that the recent launch of the rebranded "Astro One", which offers simplified and lower-priced bundles such as entertainment, sports, and epic packs starting at RM49.90, aims to improve affordability and value perception. "While this initiative may support subscriber acquisition, it has also led to average revenue per user dilution, which declined to RM98," HLIB said. HLIB highlighted that subscription revenue has historically contributed between 62 per cent and 77 per cent of group revenue. "As such, although the new pricing strategy may be tactically sound, it introduces near-term pressure on top-line performance and profitability. "Despite Astro's strong position in local content creation, advertising expenditure (adex) remains muted, and revenue headwinds continue to persist," it added. HLIB has maintained a "sell" rating on Astro, with a target price of 13 sen. The firm believes that Astro's earnings visibility remains clouded in light of persistent subscription decline with cord-cutting behaviour and softening adex. For the first quarter ended April 30, 2025, Astro recorded core profit after tax and minority interest of RM700,000, which only made up one per cent of HLIB's and consensus full-year forecasts. The negative deviation was due to lower revenue caused by a decline in advertising and subscription revenue. Meanwhile, year-on-year top-line was down by nine per cent on the back of the reduction in subscription and advertising revenue. Segment-wise, both TV and radio fell by eight per cent and 28 per cent respectively. The contraction in TV was due to lower subscription and advertising revenue, while radio was impacted by soft consumer sentiment leading to lower advertising spend. In view of the results shortfall, HLIB has cut its financial year 2025 (FY25) and FY26 forecasts by 51 per cent and 58 per cent respectively.
