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Expert weighs in on Nigel Farage funding for Scotland comments

Expert weighs in on Nigel Farage funding for Scotland comments

The National05-06-2025

The Reform UK leader sparked outrage when he suggested axing the Barnett formula during a press conference in Aberdeen earlier this week.
Dr Neil McGarvey, a top politics lecturer at Strathclyde University, told The National that Farage's comments suggested the Reform UK leader had not thought 'deeply' about the constitutional question.
He said: 'I don't think Farage has thought it through very coherently, if I'm being honest.
'I would actually struggle to label Farage a Unionist; he's not really thought in any way deeply about the Union and the implications of what he's said for the Union.'
READ MORE: Douglas Ross accused of 'bullying witnesses' in key Holyrood committee
While the Barnett formula is often taken to mean the whole process by which Holyrood is funded, it is only one part, explained McGarvey, with the baseline block grant making up the largest part.
The Barnett formula, devised in the 1970s before the first Scottish devolution referendum, is used to calculate how much money Scotland gets as a proportion of UK spending in devolved areas.
(Image: PA)
McGarvey, who has written about right-wing politics in Scotland and the Union, said that he would describe Farage as holding a 'One Britain philosophy', which he defined as an 'English-stroke-British nationalist approach to governance, that we should all be governed as one'.
The academic argued that because of The Vow – a last-ditch attempt to shore up No votes in the 2014 referendum, which included a pledge to keep the Barnett formula while bringing in more powers – both sides in the referendum had cast their ballots for different kinds of constitutional change.
He said: 'You could say, from an SNP perspective, if you reopen the whole debate about Barnett, you're reopening the constitutional debate.'
READ MORE: Britain was 'extension of Scotland', suggest medieval texts uncovered by historian
And McGarvey argued that Farage may find unlikely bedfellows in the SNP over his comments about the Barnett formula, which saw the Reform UK leader saying that Holyrood should be 'able to raise a bit more of its own revenue'.
He said this put Farage in similar territory to those in the SNP who would argue for the Scottish Parliament to have 'full fiscal autonomy', which would see it given complete control over tax and public spending short of full independence.
Farage's comments were met with outrage not only from pro-independence parties but from the Conservatives, who said his argument amounted to wanting to scrap what they call the 'Union dividend'.

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When Nigel Farage called for the nationalisation of British Steel on a visit to the Scunthorpe steelworks this spring, it was a marked change in direction for a man who had spent almost all of his political career campaigning for a smaller, Thatcherite state. Two years earlier, he had questioned why British taxpayers' money should be thrown into keeping the fires of the very same blast furnaces burning. Back in 2018 he told an interviewer: 'I supported Margaret Thatcher's modernisation and reforms of the economy. It was painful for some people, but it had to happen.' After gaining a fifth MP and sweeping to a string of victories in England's local elections last month, his Reform UK is coming for Labour in places Keir Starmer's party once considered its traditional heartlands: the former mill towns, pit villages and workshops of northern England and the Midlands, the steel towns of south Wales and the shipyards of Scotland. 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'The structure of support for Reform, much like for the Brexit party and Ukip before it, very much tends to be in particular areas, described often, sometimes unhelpfully, as 'left-behind towns'. They tend to be older, have former manufacturing industries, tend to be distant from Westminster, and tend to have suffered economic loss.' Reform came second to Labour in 89 constituencies at the 2024 general election, running Starmer's party closest in the 103-year-old south Wales Labour stronghold of Llanelli, a steel town once famous for manufacturing tinplate. Most of the constituencies are in the north and Midlands. It is these seats where the 2029 battle will be most fierce. Analysis by the Guardian shows these target seats have a higher share of manufacturing jobs than the country at large, demonstrating that, despite decades of industrial decline, they remain more dependent than most on steel, car manufacturing and chemicals. Overall they account for a fifth of Britain's industrial base. Including towns such as Redcar, Wigan and Rotherham, the average share of manufacturing employment is 12.3%, compared with 8.8% for the UK as a whole. The seat of Washington and Gateshead South, home to the vast Nissan factory near Sunderland, has the highest share, at 35.3%. Separate research by the Trades Union Congress shows Labour seats with the most manufacturing jobs are more likely to have Reform as the second party (34% of seats), compared with the average across all Labour constituencies (22%). Recent predictions from MRP models show Reform would win at least 180 seats if an election was held tomorrow, including nearly all of the places where it placed second to Labour in 2024. Most of the seats cover towns that have been hit hard economically by manufacturing decline. When Margaret Thatcher came to power in 1979, Britain's industrial base was already dwindling from its peak in the early 20th century, yet still contributed about 30% to GDP. Many areas were also still dominated by industry – including Hartlepool, Burnley and Stoke-on-Trent, where more than half of all jobs were in manufacturing. The deindustrialisation of the 1980s was, however, brutally fast as the UK transitioned to a more services-oriented economy, reliant on imported goods. Today manufacturing accounts for about a tenth of annual output. But Reform is not only targeting nostalgia for a bygone age when Britain made things. When the factories closed, the jobs they offered were either not replaced or were supplanted by lower-paid, insecure work. Whole towns have suffered economically as a result, falling behind the rest of the country despite the promises of successive governments to turn things around. Austerity made matters worse. Last month, research by academics at the University of Staffordshire showed cuts since 1984 have disproportionately affected coalfield and deindustrialised areas, including reductions in welfare and benefit worth £32.6bn between 2010 and 2021. Andy Haldane, the former Bank of England chief economist, said: 'Whichever lens you look at – economic, social, environmental – those places have been lost, and in that sense they have been left behind. And if not overlooked, then underinvested in, systematically, over at least a generation. If not two. 'The longer that has gone on and has turned into generational stasis, or a lack of social mobility, the greater people in those places have willingness to seek redemption elsewhere. Brexit was that, almost a decade ago. And Reform might be it now.' Haldane, the architect of levelling up, and a key figure in the last government's industrial strategy, said Farage had effectively become a 'tribune for the working classes'. The Guardian's analysis shows Reform's target seats would have an average ranking on the English index of multiple deprivation of 92, out of 543 places in total, with 1 being the most deprived. The index brings together a wide range of data sources to build a picture of deprivation, including income, work, education, health and crime rates. Sign up to Business Today Get set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning after newsletter promotion Average wages are £65 a week lower than the UK average. Unemployment, economic inactivity and the rate of jobless benefit claims are higher. To track the rise of Reform, Labour researchers have been using data from parliamentary petitions as a straw poll to see if the party is growing in their local area. Analysts are poring over data from the 'Call a General Election' online poll, launched within months of the last one, and signed by 3 million people. Signatories have to enter a postcode, enabling support to be plotted geographically. Hotspots included Essex and Lincolnshire – Reform strongholds. 'We're looking at how active they are, where we can assign a high probability that it [a petition] is being driven by Reform or their organised groups via WhatsApp,' said one adviser to a Labour MP. Almost all the Reform target seats backed Brexit, including 15 Labour won from the Tories in 2024. Most had only been Tory since 2019, when many decades-old Labour seats backed Boris Johnson's 'levelling up' and 'get Brexit done' messages. On average, leave voters tend to be more socially conservative and anti-immigration. Many 'red wall' MPs are pushing Starmer to adopt a tougher stance on immigration as a result, including the Blue Labour caucus founded by Maurice Glasman. Reform has pushed hard on the issue, in a high-stakes campaign after last summer's riots across the UK – including in many post-industrial towns. Experts said economic conditions alone did not explain anti-migrant views or justify rioting, but that austerity and stalling living standards fuelled grievances and mistrust of institutions. Luke Telford, a criminal and social policy academic at the University of York and author on Brexit and deindustrialisation, said: 'The key narratives we heard in the months after [the riots] was it is all about the far right and social media. 'Undoubtedly that's an important contributor to the outbursts of inarticulate rage we saw. But that rage doesn't occur in a vacuum, it is bound to certain social, cultural and economic conditions that combined. 'It's certain that the areas among the most deprived, were among those with high levels of rioting. It's impossible to ignore that kind of correlation.' However, fetishising industrial jobs and prioritising the restoration of British manufacturing might not be the best route to an economic renaissance. Not least because England's regions are more economically and culturally diverse places than some in Westminster give them credit for. Many economists say the idea is riddled with misunderstanding about modern Britain, where its strengths mainly lie in high-value services, rather than on low-paid production that is at risk of being automated away. Most Britons think manufacturing is important for the economy. Most parents do not want their children to pursue a career in the sector. 'I don't think you have to replace manufacturing job with manufacturing job in a Trump-like fashion to resist the rise of populism,' said Haldane. 'But you do need to replace them with something that is at least as good, in terms of quality of work, pay, security and a degree of pride around it. And you do need to invest in the supporting infrastructure. Whether that's transport, housing, or social infrastructure – like youth clubs and parks.' Reindustrialisation runs like a seam of coal through the rhetoric of rightwing populists worldwide – seen most prominently in Trump's Make America Great Again campaign to 'bring back' factory jobs to rust belt states. Much of the intellectual driving force behind reviving industry emanates from the US. The economist Oren Cass and his American Compass conservative thinktank, with close ties to JD Vance in particular, has promoted a 'new right' strategy prioritising a pro-worker, pro-trade union, pro-industry agenda that is scathing of corporate America. Cass was among speakers – including Farage and Kemi Badenoch – at a London conference held by the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship (Arc) this year, sharing a stage with Michael Gove, the Spectator editor and former Tory cabinet minister. Founded by the Canadian psychologist and self-help author Jordan Peterson and the Tory peer Philippa Stroud, Arc's financial backers include the British hedge fund manager Paul Marshall and the Dubai-based investment firm Legatum – who also co-own GB News, where Farage has a prime-time show. Another figure is Matthew Goodwin, also a GB News commentator and regular speaker at Reform rallies. An ex-academic, he studied what he calls the 'realignment' of British politics, whereby the left has shifted to supporting liberal, metropolitan values, allowing the right to hoover up more socially conservative, working-class voters. Farage and Trump share common ground in promising to roll back net zero – ostensibly to boost manufacturing jobs in heavier polluting sectors, including oil and gas, coal, steel and chemicals. And both are courting trade union members and their worries over foreign competition, the impact of decarbonisation and high energy costs on heavy industry. Gary Smith, the general secretary of the GMB union, which includes offshore workers in Scotland among its members, has called for an 'honest debate' about Labour's plans for industry. He told the Guardian that net zero advocates on the left risked fuelling support for Reform by leaving workers out of the debate. 'Climate fundamentalism and rightwing populism are two cheeks of the same backside,' he said. 'We need to have a programme about jobs and apprenticeships to bring back hope. Neoliberalism is dead and globalisation as we knew it is over. Working-class people aren't voting for cheap TVs and training shoes. They want their jobs back.' At an event in Westminster late last year to lobby Labour MPs on high manufacturing energy costs, GMB's shop stewards were approached uninvited by the Reform deputy leader, Richard Tice, trying to curry their favour. But while Reform can count on support from some union members, the labour movement's leaders are furious at its overtures. 'We wouldn't talk to those fuckers. Load of posh boys hanging tough for the working class? They can go fuck themselves,' said one union boss. Paul Nowak, the general secretary of the TUC, said: 'The hypocrisy is stunning. This is a guy [Farage] who was hanging on the coat-tails of Donald Trump. He turns up at Scunthorpe saying he wants to save British Steel at the same time as his mate in the White House is slapping tariffs on steel and could cost jobs across Britain's manufacturing base. 'In industrial communities there is a lot of cynicism about politics and whether it can make a difference. But it can make a tangible difference to peoples lives who is in Downing Street.' For Labour, the challenge from Farage showed the importance of an 'ambitious' industrial strategy, he said. It could be central to its hopes of winning a second term.

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