Global Fertility Crisis Can't Be Solved With Financial Perks, UN Report Says

Solving the global fertility crisis would require creating conditions that support parenting instead of pushing economic incentives, according to a new UN report.
A new UN Population Fund study argued that efforts by many countries to boost their population with family bonuses or fertility targets do not always have a long-term impact and could even backfire.

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Top economist who previously sounded the alarm on tariffs sees a possible scenario where Trump ‘outsmarted all of us'

Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, laid out a potential scenario where President Donald Trump's tariffs are extended long enough to ease economic uncertainty while also providing a significant bump to federal revenue. That comes as the 90-day pause on Trump's 'reciprocal tariffs' is nearing an end. Businesses and consumers remain in limbo over what will happen next with President Donald Trump's tariffs, but a top economist sees a way to leave them in place and still deliver a 'victory for the world.' In a note on Saturday titled 'Has Trump Outsmarted Everyone on Tariffs?', Apollo Global Management Chief Economist Torsten Sløk laid out a scenario that keeps tariffs well below Trump's most aggressive rates long enough to ease uncertainty and avoid the economic harm that comes with it. 'Maybe the strategy is to maintain 30% tariffs on China and 10% tariffs on all other countries and then give all countries 12 months to lower non-tariff barriers and open up their economies to trade,' he speculated. That comes as the 90-day pause on Trump's 'reciprocal tariffs,' which triggered a massive selloff on global markets in April, is nearing an end early next month. The temporary reprieve was meant to give the U.S. and its trade partners time to negotiate deals. But aside from an agreement with the U.K. and another short-term deal with China to step back from prohibitively high tariffs, few others have been announced. Meanwhile, negotiations are ongoing with other top trading partners. Trump administration officials have been saying for weeks that the U.S. is close to reaching deals. On Saturday, Sløk said extending the deadline one year would give other countries and U.S. businesses more time to adjust to a 'new world with permanently higher tariffs.' An extension would also immediately reduce uncertainty, giving a boost to business planning, employment, and financial markets. 'This would seem like a victory for the world and yet would produce $400 billion of annual revenue for US taxpayers,' he added. 'Trade partners will be happy with only 10% tariffs and US tax revenue will go up. Maybe the administration has outsmarted all of us.' Sløk's speculation is notable as he previously sounded the alarm on Trump's tariffs. In April, he warned tariffs have the potential to trigger a recession by this summer. Also in April, before the U.S. and China reached a deal to temporarily halt triple-digit tariffs, he said the trade war between the two countries would pummel American small businesses. More certainty on tariffs would give the Federal Reserve a clearer view on inflation as well. For now, most policymakers are in wait-and-see mode, as tariffs are expected to have stagflationary effects. But a split has emerged. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Friday that economic data could justify lower interest rates as early as next month, expecting only a one-off impact from tariffs. But San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also said Friday a rate cut in the fall looks more appropriate, rather than a cut in July. Still, Sløk isn't alone in wondering whether Trump's tariffs may not be as harmful to the economy and financial markets as feared. Chris Harvey, Wells Fargo Securities' head of equity strategy, expects tariffs to settle in the 10%-12% range, low enough to have a minimal impact, and sees the S&P 500 soaring to 7,007, making him Wall Street's biggest bull. He added that it's still necessary to make progress on trade and reach deals with big economies like India, Japan and the EU. That way, markets can focus on next year, rather near-term tariff impacts. 'Then you can start to extrapolate out,' he told CNBC last month. 'Then the market starts looking through things. They start looking through any sort of economic slowdown or weakness, and then we start looking to '26 not at '25.' This story was originally featured on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

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4 hours ago

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4 Undeniable Factors That Could Push Bitcoin to New All-Time Highs This Summer

Bitcoin is in the midst of a strong bull run. Its prior all-time highs are likely to be broken again, and soon. Four factors in particular could drive its price higher. 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin › Some moments in the market don't need dramatic catalysts; they just quietly build up momentum until something gives. For Bitcoin, (CRYPTO: BTC) the stars are aligning with uncanny precision in ways that are likely to have a stunning result. Four macro forces, each with a history of preceding major rallies in the coin, are once again in play. Here's what's unfolding, and why it might matter more than most investors realize. When central banks turn on the liquidity tap and ensure there's more money sloshing around the financial system, that new money generally flows toward riskier assets, such as cryptocurrency, as greater liquidity emboldens investors to take riskier bets. Furthermore, safer asset classes would have already been bid up to the point of being fairly expensive from the perspective of institutional allocators. The global M2 money supply hit roughly $108.4 trillion in April, climbing at a pace last seen right before Bitcoin's 2021 breakout to new highs. The coin's performance tends to lag that liquidity gauge by about one quarter. Liquidity waves eventually peak, but the cash they inject never fully drains from the financial system. If part of that additional base money ends up permanently sequestered in Bitcoin wallets -- as happened after prior monetary easing cycles -- holders will enjoy a higher floor even after central banks commence with new tightening cycles. When the value of the dollar drops, investors often opt to park their capital in stronger assets that are retaining or increasing in value, like, potentially, Bitcoin. The dollar index is down roughly 10% year to date, its worst six-month slide since 1986. Fund managers are the most underweight to the currency in two decades, per a recent survey conducted by Bank of America. For investors, dollar weakness is more than a near-term tailwind for Bitcoin. A softer greenback often coincides with looser financial conditions abroad, fostering new demand from countries where Bitcoin offers a liquid alternative to depreciating local money. That incremental global bid tends to stick around, because reversing currency weakness usually requires policy shifts that take years to perform. Similar to money supply, interest rates significantly influence Bitcoin's price. As yields on government-backed debt like U.S. Treasury bills drop, and along with it, the cost of borrowing passed on to the financial system, capital needs to flow to riskier assets to secure a return. On that note, benchmark 10-year yields on Treasury bonds have fallen from 4.81% in late January to the low 4% range this week. Every notable Bitcoin surge since 2017 has arrived shortly after real or nominal yields were slipping. That matters for the long haul, because each yield dip trains allocators to view the coin as a portfolio diversifier when bonds offer less income. The habit can persist even after rates rise again, much as gold ownership remained commonplace after real yields recovered in the 1980s. The longer Bitcoin proves able to offset low-yield stretches, the more likely it becomes a fixture in strategic asset mixes rather than a tactical punt. Bitcoin's supply situation is also very permissive for the coin to make another run at new all-time highs. The 2024 halving cut miner rewards, decreasing daily issuance to about 450 coins. Demand from institutional investors stemming from their offering of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) holding Bitcoin is running far higher than that flow. Plus, the supply shock math compounds with time. Assuming the price rises even a little, Bitcoin miners will eventually sell even fewer coins to cover their operating costs, and at the same time, new issuance keeps shrinking every four years. That structural throttle on float effectively hands long-term holders an ever-growing share of total outstanding supply, increasing their pricing power, as long as they resist the urge to trade around short-term volatility. The lesson here is that long-term-oriented investors should keep buying Bitcoin, and buckle up, because it has a lot of room to run during this summer and beyond. Before you buy stock in Bitcoin, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Bitcoin wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $664,089!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $881,731!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 994% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 172% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 9, 2025 Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. 4 Undeniable Factors That Could Push Bitcoin to New All-Time Highs This Summer was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

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5 hours ago

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Mizuho Increases PT on Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Stock, Maintains Outperform

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADP) is one of the 10 software stocks analysts are upgrading. On June 13, Mizuho increased the price objective on the company's stock to $332.00 from $321.00, while maintaining an 'Outperform' rating. The firm believes that Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADP) has done a good job over the past few years in improving product and execution. HR management team reviewing resumes on a computer. The research firm remains optimistic about Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADP)'s future prospects as it has been introducing revamped products throughout the market segments and continues to leverage its human capital management industry-leading data and scale with tools such as AI in a bid to improve efficiencies. Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADP)'s strategic moves, like the acquisition of PEI in Mexico, focus on enhancing its global payroll capabilities and aiding the Latin America region. With the help of integrating PEI's payroll expertise in Mexico with Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADP)'s global reach and comprehensive HCM solutions, the focus is on enhancing the experience. For FY 2025, the company expects revenue growth of 6% – 7% and adjusted EBIT margin expansion of 40 – 50 bps. Furthermore, it anticipates diluted EPS growth of 9% – 10%. Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADP) provides cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solutions. While we acknowledge the potential of ADP to grow, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than ADP and that has 100x upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock. READ NEXT: 13 Cheap AI Stocks to Buy According to Analysts and 11 Unstoppable Growth Stocks to Invest in Now Disclosure: None. Sign in to access your portfolio