Population Census-2027: Why this reopens debate on delimitation, timeline
The announcement Wednesday of the decision to conduct Population Census-2027 in two phases along with enumeration of castes has reopened the debate on delimitation, especially in the southern states, with Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin seeking an answer from the Centre and accusing it of delaying the headcount to reduce the state's parliamentary representation.
The many processes of the exercise and what will follow put a question mark on whether all this can be completed before the next Lok Sabha elections in 2029.
Stalin, in a post on X, demanded 'Fair Delimitation' and said, 'The Indian Constitution mandates that delimitation must follow the first Census after 2026. The BJP has now delayed the Census to 2027, making their plan clear to reduce Tamil Nadu's Parliamentary representation. I had warned about this. It is now unfolding… We need clear answers from the Union Government.'
Stalin had earlier asked the Centre to extend the 1971 Census-based delimitation framework for another 30 years beyond 2026. The 'status quo should continue for at least three decades', until 2056, he had said.
The Congress, on the other hand, treaded cautiously. 'There is really no reason to delay the Census that was due in 2021 for another twenty three months. The Modi Government is capable only of generating headlines, not meeting deadlines,' the party's communication head Jairam Ramesh said.
According to the announcement by the Ministry of Home Affairs, 'the reference date for Population Census-2027 will be 00:00 hours of the first day of March, 2027'.
Sources said the Census enumeration may take only 21 days and will be completed in February 2027 and the final report released in the next few months.
This will eventually open the doors for delimitation to take place. The government has also promised to implement 33% reservation for women in Parliament following the delimitation.
Delimitation has been a contentious subject with parties ruling the southern states fearing that they will lose representation in Parliament if delimitation is conducted based on population enumeration of the latest Census. It is because the southern states have been able to control their populations better compared to northern states over the years. Earlier this year, the ruling DMK in Tamil Nadu even passed a resolution opposing Census-based delimitation.
According to sources, while the government is yet to notify the exact schedule, which would be done through a gazette notification on June 16, it is likely that the house listing phase of the Census will start by March-April 2026. This will be completed by September 2026 and would be followed by Census enumeration that will take place over 21 days in February 2027. Sources said 25-30 lakh enumerators would be involved in conducting the Census.
Sources said after the enumeration is completed, provisional data of the population may become available within 10 days in the month of March. 'This time, enumeration is being done digitally. So things will be faster. There will still be some time lag between the provisional data and the final data. Removal of discrepancies through verification may take six months. It is also likely that there will be very little difference between the provisional data and final data since it is being done digitally,' an official of the MHA said.
Once the final data is out, which could be in late 2027 itself, it will open the doors to start the process of delimitation. Parliament will have to pass a Delimitation Act to pave the way for formation of a Delimitation Commission.
This Commission would then devise a formula (population per constituency), in consultation with various stakeholders including state governments, based on which the delimitation exercise would be conducted.
A Constitutional amendment Bill will have to be brought to increase the seats in Parliament which remain frozen at 543.
Delimitation is mandated under Articles 81 and 82 of the Constitution and is required to be carried out after every Census. This happened thrice, based on the Census of 1951, 1961 and 1971.
The 42nd Amendment to the Constitution, passed during the Emergency, froze the total number of Parliamentary and state Assembly seats until the 2001 Census.
The present delimitation of Parliamentary constituencies within states, has been done on the basis of the 2001 Census, under the provisions of Delimitation Act, 2002. However, only the boundaries of constituencies have been altered and not the number of seats which remain the same as based on the 1971 Census.
Again, the Constitution of India was specifically amended (84th amendment) in 2002, not to have interstate delimitation of constituencies until the 'first Census conducted after the year 2026'.
According to the Delimitation Act of 2002, the Delimitation Commission would be headed by a retired Supreme Court judge and would have a Chief Election Commissioner and State Election Commissioner as members. The Commission associates as members MPs and MLAs from states but none of these members have voting rights.
The Centre will have to get a Constitutional amendment passed to increase the total number of seats in Parliament and that will require a two-thirds majority. According to Article 81 of the Constitution, the total number of seats in Lok Sabha cannot exceed 550.
But resisting an increase in total number of seats could put southern states at further disadvantage since Census-based delimitation at 543 seats could reduce their existing number of seats in Parliament. Also, since women's reservation is tethered to the delimitation process, opposing it could open a political party to the charge of being anti-women.
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