Maybank Estimates April GDP Lower At 4.8%, Reflects Recent IPI Data

Malaysia's economic growth moderated in April 2025, with Maybank Research estimating gross domestic product (GDP) expansion at 4.8% year-on-year, down from 6.0% in March and 6.2% in April last year. The slowdown reflects a mixed bag of industrial and trade performance, with strength in manufacturing and exports partially offset by weaker mining output and softer consumer demand.
The moderation was largely driven by a weaker Industrial Production Index (IPI), which grew 2.7% year-on-year in April compared to 3.2% in March. While manufacturing activity picked up to 5.6% (Mar: +4.0%), sharp declines in mining (-6.3%) and continued contraction in electricity output (-1.6%) weighed on overall industrial growth.
Manufacturing gains were powered by stronger output in both export-oriented and domestic industries. Export-oriented production rose 6.4% (Mar: +4.8%), with notable growth in: Electronics & Electricals: +9.9% (Mar: +13.2%)
Vegetable & Animal Oils & Fats: +22.8% (Mar: +10.6%)
Chemicals & Chemical Products: +4.7% (Mar: +4.9%)
Domestic-oriented manufacturing also saw steady expansion at 3.9% (Mar: +2.3%), supported by increased production of food processing products, fabricated metal goods, basic metals, and non-metallic mineral products.
The drag from the mining sector was significant, reflecting lower production of crude oil and condensates (-0.7%) as well as natural gas (-10.0%). Electricity output declined for the second straight month. However, crude palm oil (CPO) production rebounded sharply (+12.3%) after a brief contraction in March.
Domestic trade activity lost some momentum, with the Distributive Trade Index rising 4.3% in April (Mar: +5.0%). Retail trade growth slowed to 3.4% (Mar: +4.9%), while motor vehicle sales remained tepid at 0.8%. Wholesale trade, however, posted a slight improvement at 6.6% (Mar: +6.3%).
Malaysia's external trade saw strong recovery in April, with export values surging 16.4% year-on-year and volumes up 15.6%. Imports also jumped by 20.0% in value and 24.5% in volume, following contractions in March. Despite this rebound, the downtrend in intermediate goods imports raises caution about future manufacturing momentum.
Private Consumption Holds Steady
Private consumption remained resilient in the first four months of the year, with retail trade growing 4.7% year-on-year—slightly ahead of 2024's pace of 4.4%. Maybank maintains its full-year forecast for private consumption growth at 5.3%, supported by a healthy job market and various government initiatives, including: Civil service pay and pension reviews
Minimum wage hikes
Increased cash assistance under Budget 2025
Income tax reliefs for the middle-income group
The investment upcycle appears to be continuing, with strong capital goods imports and steady financing for industrial construction indicating sustained business confidence. However, Maybank cautioned that the trajectory could face headwinds if the weakness in intermediate goods imports persists.
While April's data showed mixed signals, Maybank notes that Malaysia's economy continues to find support from domestic demand and export recovery. However, with certain leading indicators pointing to a possible softening ahead, the growth trajectory for the remainder of the year remains subject to downside risks. Related

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Need to shield B40 from SST impact: Umno

Daily Express

8 hours ago

Daily Express

Need to shield B40 from SST impact: Umno

Published on: Saturday, June 21, 2025 Published on: Sat, Jun 21, 2025 By: Abbey Junior Text Size: Suhaimi noted that Sabah remains one of the states most affected by development imbalance and income inequality — making it all the more urgent for the government to provide strong buffers against the impact of new taxes. Kota Kinabalu: With the full implementation of the Sales and Services Tax (SST) in Sabah just around the corner, the state government must explain what measures are in place to protect low-income groups from the expected rise in living costs. Sabah Umno information chief Datuk Suhaimi Nasir said the absence of clear strategies to assist vulnerable communities is worrying, especially as nearly 40pc of households in the state fall under the B40 category. 'Many depend on informal work or subsistence economies. The SST could erode their already limited purchasing power — particularly in rural areas,' said Suhaimi, who is also Libaran MP, in a statement on Friday (June 20). The tax rollout, set to begin on July 1, was introduced under Budget 2025 by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. Under the new framework, a 5pc–10pc sales tax will apply to selected non-essential goods, while the service tax is being extended to sectors such as rental and leasing, construction, finance, private healthcare, private education, and beauty services. Suhaimi noted that Sabah remains one of the states most affected by development imbalance and income inequality — making it all the more urgent for the government to provide strong buffers against the impact of new taxes. While he acknowledged the importance of SST in boosting national revenue, he said it must be balanced with fair and inclusive support policies to prevent it from becoming a burden to ordinary Sabahans. Advertisement He urged the state government to implement targeted subsidies, expand the scope of price controls on essential goods, and provide conditional cash assistance to help households cope. 'The revenue collected must be returned to the people through tangible improvements in rural infrastructure — such as roads, clinics, clean water, and internet coverage — especially in interior areas still left behind,' he said. 'Sabahans deserve transparency on how public funds are spent and how these measures directly benefit their daily lives. Trust is not built on slogans, but on action that prioritises those most in need.' * Follow us on our official WhatsApp channel and Telegram for breaking news alerts and key updates! * Do you have access to the Daily Express e-paper and online exclusive news? Check out subscription plans available. Stay up-to-date by following Daily Express's Telegram channel. Daily Express Malaysia

The Sun

a day ago

The Sun

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