Warm temperatures mean more migrants on the way, Government told
Warm temperatures and calm weather conditions could result in an increase in Channel crossings, the Government has been told.
Good weather predicted in the South East of England has prompted warnings that next week could see a particularly high number of small boats crossing the Channel.
Independent modelling has forecast that 2025 is on course to become a record year for illegal crossings.
Temperatures across Britain are set to be above average for the second half of June, with highs of 84F (29C) around London, according to the Met Office.
Sir Keir Starmer has urged Emmanuel Macron, the French president, to do more to tackle the crossings from northern France.
If the weather remains favourable, Dr Richard Wood, data expert, has predicted arrivals will hit nearly 46,000 this year, which would be on a par with the record in 2022 and 20 per cent higher than last year.
Along the south-east coast, the wind speed is expected to remain between a light and a moderate breeze, at points as low as 4mph, this week.
Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said: 'The Labour Government has lost control of our borders. This year so far has been the worst in history for illegal immigrants crossing the Channel. This coming week promises more of the same.
'The Government must urgently get the French to prevent these crossings completely. We've paid them nearly half-a-billion pounds to do this, yet they are failing.'
He added that the UK should suspend the 12-year fishing deal with the European Union, which allows French fishermen continued access to British waters, until the boats stop.
The Prime Minister told reporters that he will be discussing illegal Channel crossings with Mr Macron and other leaders at the G7 summit this week in Canada.
Asked if France was doing enough to tackle the issue, Sir Keir said: 'One of the things we've worked hard at is improving the relations with the French in relation to the work we both need to do to stop these boat crossings, which I'm determined we will absolutely bear down on. Nobody should be making that journey.
'As a result of that we are seeing a much greater co-operation in northern France – I want to see more co-operation in northern France, and it's an issue that I have raised and will raise again with president Macron.'
'We have good relations between the Home Secretary and the [French] interior minister now that we're working jointly.'
The Home Office released figures earlier this month that showed the number of 'red days', when conditions are thought favourable for Channel crossings, in the year 2024-25.
They showed that the proportion of red days in the year reached a new peak, with 190 days in the 12 months to April 2025, an 80 per cent rise on last year.
Dr Wood's research shows the weather is so critical that the odds of an unviable day, when there will be no crossings, increase by 11 per cent for every centimetre of wave height, reduce by 6 per cent for every degree of sea temperature and rise by 10 per cent for each hour of eight to 12 knot westerly winds.
'Temperatures above average'
Nicola Maxey from the Met Office said: 'Our long-range outlook does suggest that temperatures during the second half of June are likely to be above average, with the possibility of some hot spells, particularly in the South East.'
According to the Met's forecast, mist and fog is likely to clear for most of the country on Monday to leave a 'fine day' with warm sunny spells.
From Tuesday to Thursday, high pressure will bring drier and sunnier weather from the south.
Temperatures are expected to be near normal in the North, with very warm conditions returning to the South East.
Throughout the rest of June, most of the UK is expected to experience good weather with a low risk of thundery showers in the west, according to the Met Office's long-term forecast.
During the first weeks of July temperatures are expected again to be at or above normal levels with some hot spells in the South East.
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