Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy's race-by-race analysis and tips for Hawkesbury on Saturday
The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central's form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances in all 10 races at the Hawkesbury stand-alone meeting on Saturday.
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SUGGESTED BET
DUFF'S BEST VALUE
RACE 8 No. 4: OSIPENKO
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Ron Dufficy: I'm going with JUMEIRAH BEACH (10) in the first. He had a confidence-boosting midweek win in Brisbane on the soft track last start. His previous two Midway runs were solid and I think he's got nice credentials at double-figure odds. VINTAGE CHOICE (3) might not have won in a long, long time but I feel he is in career-best form and he was excellent in the Provincial-Midway Championships Final. He does have gate speed, too. PRINCE OF SORTS (4) is an underrated horse. He got back further than expected last start and did more than enough. He is only a three-year-old and his previous win was good. HERB (12) is hard to catch but he had a nice lead-up run when he was unlucky on this track and this looks to be a target race.
Ray Thomas: A tough opener. I'm going a little wide with MISS HADES (5) at generous odds. The likelihood of a heavy track does concern me but I thought her first-up run when a close sixth at Warwick Farm was a lot better than it reads on paper as she had no galloping room in the straight. Genuine mare who gets the benefit of the claim, too. NORTHERN EYES (2) was working his way back into form then also was devoid of luck at Randwick last start. Give him another chance. STARBOARD (11) never runs a bad race and VINTAGE CHOICE (3) is close to a win.
Miss Hades wins first up at @gosford_races, giving @G1TySchil a race-to-race double! @GaryPortelli pic.twitter.com/f0Cc2Ti9GK
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) April 10, 2024
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RACE 2: TAB HIGHWAY (1500m)
Dufficy: This race is nearly impossible. CANADIAN RULER (1) has a bit of weight but gets the claim and sets up well at his fourth run in and after a win. He is going well for the new stable and has a lovely racing style. MIDNIGHT AFFAIR (11) had a more than acceptable lead-up in a stronger race than this when she finished off hard. STRAIGHT FIRE (8) did enough first-up to suggest he has come back stronger. CALL ME TERRY (10) is busting to win another race and back in trip with the big weight was against him last start. He is in the mix.
Thomas: CANADIAN RULER (1) is racing consistently and brings winning form to Hawkesbury after scoring comfortably at Canberra last start. He's got to carry topweight in the wet conditions but he should be very competitive again. Plenty of dangers including KOTAISHI (6), an improving sprinter with soft track form and STRAIGHT FIRE (8) who was good first-up. CALL ME TERRY (10) also stays under notice as he is very fit, gets in well at the weights, and handles wet tracks.
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Dufficy: I'm pretty keen on AERODROME (1). He created a big impression on debut, he looks a likely type for the future and has to be hard to beat. If he comes to Hawkesbury, WENTWORTH FALLS (7) should run well. He was very good charging late at Kembla when dragged back from a wide draw so he probably has the right grounding for this race. DAMIEN (2) landed some good bets winning easily first-up on the speed. The time was only steady but he looks an improver. ONE STEP CLOSER (10) looks a nice middle-distance type for the future. He did start favourite in that Kembla lead-up and he has more to offer.
Thomas: AERODROME (1) was impressive on debut, scoring with authority. He looks a talented two-year-old and although there is a query about him on the wet track, there is no evidence to suggest he won't handle it, either. I'm happy to be with Aerodrome from WENTWORTH FALLS (7) who is the big improver. I've got the same top three with DAMIEN (2) as next best but I'm wary of SERPICO (6) who although well beaten when third to Aerodrome, should run a strong 1400m.
Aerodrome gets the last few strides and wins well for @MFreedmanRacing! ðŸ'� pic.twitter.com/Uybp4KU1GS
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) April 16, 2025
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Dufficy: I want to give WORLD ALLIANCE (4) another chance here. He has been back to the trials since an inconclusive run at Kembla Grange. His previous form was great for a race like this and I have to give him another chance. EPIC PROPORTIONS (8) is one at big odds who should be closely monitored. He has been hard held in two trials and does have great fresh form. IRON MAN (3) was good first-up and this is a lovely race for him at home back to 1100m. He deserves another win. RANVEER (6) is another of these interesting Matt Laurie-trained runners who has had a couple of nice jumpouts in Victoria and has good fresh form.
Thomas: IRON MAN (3) was held up for a run for most of the final 400m but still ran a close fifth when resuming at Randwick. Consistent sprinter, strips fitter here, handles wet tracks and has won second-up from a spell. SPANISH FOX (1) reeled off five successive wins before his spell last spring and resumes here at the track where his winning streak started. He's unknown on a heavy track but he's trialled well and should go close. WORLD ALLIANCE (4) rates among the main chances for all the reasons you mentioned, Ronnie. ONE DESTINY (7) scored a tough win at Warwick Farm last start and he is a superior wet-tracker.
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Dufficy: I quite like QUANTUM CAT (4), Ray. He got chopped out when building momentum last start when resuming and wasn't knocked about. I'm not sure about him in the wet but apart from that he is very likeable. This does look a lovely set-up for JAMBEROO (2) second-up from a spell. He ticks lots of bases liking the wet and his adaptability of going forward in a race that lacks speed. BLACK RUN (5) showed some encouraging signs racing well on debut in Australia and should lift off that run. ARISTONOUS (10) comes out of the same Warwick Farm race as many of his rivals and he worked home well that day.
Thomas: I've also found QUANTUM CAT (4). He's still trying to get out from his Warwick Farm comeback run and although he is going straight to 1800m, this is his preferred distance range. PHILIPSBURG (3) has won successive Brisbane races, has never been in better form and handles wet tracks. JAMBEROO (2) and AWESOME WONDER (6) ran second and sixth when resuming in the same Warwick Farm race Quantum Cat contested and both will be improved.
A pick-up ride for @TommyBerry21 ends with a win! ðŸ'�
Poppin' Champagne breaks away to win the last at Warwick Farm for the @MickPriceRacing stable! pic.twitter.com/2hlR1SfYRF
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) April 16, 2025
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Dufficy: I've always been a fan of JUST PARTY (4). He has been gelded before this preparation, I was very taken by his most recent trial. He is a better horse than his form reads and only has to handle the soft track to run very well. MEDIA WORLD (9) is another colt I have always liked and good to see him start off his preparation with a win. MODELLA (14) had excuses when wide the other day and doing a few things wrong but she is a real knockout chance. Going forward I think she has plenty to offer. CANDLEWICK (13) is well-liked in the market and although she didn't beat a strong lot at Warwick Farm she did it well and I'm sure the stable has an opinion of her.
Thomas: MEDIA WORLD (9) showed plenty of determination to endure a tough run and still beat older horses when resuming at Warwick Farm. Promising colt who won at the Hawkesbury stand-alone meeting last year and will go close again. MODELLA (14) was never on the track at Randwick and still ran bravely. Underrated filly who will need luck from her wide draw but is capable of running a very competitive race. PISCES (1) has been improved by two runs from a spell and he does have wet track form. SNITZANOVA (2) is resuming but she's a talented filly who won the Sandown Guineas on a heavy track last spring and must be considered.
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Dufficy: I know LADY LAGUNA (2) had no excuses last start but she is third-up now and I love where she will settle in a race where there is no speed. This is her best distance. While there is no speed that gives BELCLARE (1) a very good chance. She was good first-up in the All Aged Stakes and the wide draw won't be an issue given the speed she has got. Last year's winner COCO JAMBOO (7) sets up well here after two encouraging runs. TASHI (10) is going well without winning, has an inner draw and should be around the mark again.
Thomas: LADY LAGUNA (2) is a top class mare fitter for recent racing. She's very effective on soft and heavy tracks, and she should get this race run to suit. TASHI (10) finished alongside Lady Laguna last start, she's drawn to get a soft run, handles all track conditions and is a definite each way chance. CITY OF LIGHTS (12) was very good when resuming and she's rates highly in a very open race. BELCLARE (1) gets an uncontested lead, ran competitively in the All Aged Stakes, and back against mares she will take running down.
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Dufficy: I'm going with OSIPENKO (4). I thought he was very strong late in the All Aged Stakes and that has to be good form for this. The wet is OK and he should improve again. I think he may have got his confidence back after winning at the end of his last preparation. PUNCH LANE (5) is an obvious choice as he did it so well at both ends last week. Can he do it three weeks in a row at a mile – that's the gamble. But he looks to be flying and probably the pattern is vital for him and if the on-pacers are getting a fair go he will be hard to beat. MIGHTY ULYSSES (3) is the other one. Three of his six wins have been second-up and he has to be included in all the multiples. GREEN FLY (15) has a lethal finish when things fall in place and he appears good odds.
Thomas: TAVI TIME (9) had his share of weight first-up and had to make his run wide out but ran on strongly for a close second when resuming at Randwick. He's out to his optimum distance of 1600m, his second-up record is almost faultless, and he handles soft tracks. GREEN FLY (15) got too far back at Randwick last week but was finishing powerfully late. His first-up win at Rosehill was very impressive and he excels on soft and heavy tracks. He's a definite lightweight chance. PUNCH LANE (5) led throughout to win well at Randwick last week and is backing up for the third week in a row but he's in top form and enjoys wet tracks. MATCHA LATTE (12) is also racing in top form, he has good tactical speed and will give himself every chance.
✨ Jimmysstar adds another G1 to his list as he races away with the All Aged Stakes for @cmaherracing and @Brown_ethan8! 🙌 @aus_turf_club pic.twitter.com/Obg9FvV2KC
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) April 19, 2025
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Dufficy: Given the wet track conditions I want to be with IN FLIGHT (12). I feel she will grow a leg second-up on the soft track second-up, she loves the distance and fits in well. Her stablemate DRAGONSTONE (1) has the blinkers back on, he's a tough, competitive horse who handles all conditions. I just wish he had drawn a little better but back to 1100m suits him. BUBBA'S BAY (4) is trialling very well, looking really sharp, and she knows how to win as she has a great winning strike-rate. I'll be watching for any confidence in the market for her on track. FIRE STAR (9) was well fancied first-up and was OK but he's proven in the soft and can bounce back.
Thomas: BUBBA'S BAY (4) struck career-best form last preparation with four wins from six starts before a spell including twice at stakes level. Smart mare who kept improving when last in work. She resumes in a very open sprint but she's trialling up a storm and enjoys wet tracks. IN FLIGHT (12) was beaten by the very talented Pisanello at Canterbury when resuming but that's good form for this race. It's worth noting all of In Flight's five career wins have been on soft or heavy tracks. FIRE STAR (9) was unplaced in the Pisanello race but deserves another chance and DRAGONSTONE (1) will be charging home.
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Dufficy: GALLANT STAR (7) didn't run to market expectations in the Country Championships Final but that form has been franked, he gets the claim, the race has enough speed up front and he finds a lovely stalking position. He will be hard to beat. MOBY DICK (10) ran through the line at his Sydney debut indicating 1400m will suit. EXCELLADUS (4) caught everyone's attention charging into dead ends late first-up. I'm not sure if this tight, turning track but he is sure to be running on hard again. The best of the rest is CHICA MOJITO (11) who is trialling really nicely and could surprise.
Thomas: I'm also staying with GALLANT STAR (7), Ron. Perhaps he is better ridden more conservatively early in his races as he has demonstrated a brilliant finishing burst in some of his wins. It was impossible to miss MOBY DICK's (10) last start effort and with even luck in running, he will be hard to beat. COOL JAKEY (3) is in very good form and makes his own luck racing on speed. IMPOSANT (13) is a very fit, in-form mare, she handles wet tracks and will be in the finish.
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He will take great benefit from that Highway experience last run and I just wish he had drawn a bit better for a softer run. CALICO MISS (11) is a three-year-old filly with upside. It's not easy coming to a Highway so quickly but she is sharp and has drawn well. SATIN STILETTO (2) did enough in a lead-up and gets a better draw here. Thomas: SHROPSHIRE LAD (1) won brilliantly at the Scone stand-alone meeting then was wide albeit with cover at Randwick and was beaten by a narrow margin. Tough effort last start and he's the one to beat although his wide draw is a leveller. CALICO MISS (11) is a speedy filly who has shown plenty of promise in her debut preparation. She's confronted by a steep rise in grade but her inside draw is advantageous. PRETTY VEGAS (4) is racing consistently and EXIT FEE (3) has to be included in the main chances. The first two races at Rosehill go to @ZacLloydx with Exit Fee winning the TAB Highway for @GoulburnTrainer! ðŸ'° @aus_turf_club — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) February 22, 2025 â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: BRAVE ONE (4) fought hard behind a nice type last start. He has a tricky draw but with any luck this looks a nice race for him. BENGAL (3) will find this harder than his Highway win last start but he's a three-year-old on the improve from an in-form stable. LUNAITE (10) is an interesting filly off two big heavy track wins. She's Paul Snowden's first Saturday runner who looks well fancied. PRETTY POWERFUL (7) is an untapped colt resuming off two good wins and should be respected. Thomas: BRAVE ONE (4) ran well first-up on a heavy track at Canterbury then matched motors with Kerguelen as they drew clear of their rivals at Rosehill last start. Team Hawkes has found the right race for Brave One, he just needs a touch of luck from an awkward draw and he will be in the finish. LUNAITE (10) has put a margin on her rivals with easy wins at Newcastle in successive starts and deserves her chance here. AMUSING (11) showed promise in her debut preparation and is one to watch. SECURE (5) comes off two solid midweek wins. Brave One races on the speed, travels well under @ZacLloydx, and the son of Exceedance handles the wet track to win on debut for @HawkesRacing ðŸ�‡ @racing_nsw | @aus_turf_club — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) July 6, 2024 • â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: Tricky race. I'm with SHE'S UNUSUAL (9) who is third-up now and gives the impression she wants this distance. I'm happy to go with different form. MILLIE DE LUNE (12) was quite dominant winning last start and if she can turn that form around to a firmer track here she will be hard to beat again. PIPPIE BEACH (3) comes out of a slowly run lead-up but she is going well in two runs this preparation and can't knock her consistency. SEAFALL (2) maps better from this draw with a forgivable wet track run last start. Thomas: GENTLESCHI (8) had to come back slightly in trip and wasn't suited by an indifferent tempo but she closed the race off strongly to finish fifth, beaten only about a half length behind Shohisha over 1600m here last start. The step up to 1800m suits here and she's at value odds. MILLIE DE LUNE (12) finished her race off powerfully to beat Hurstville Zagreb over 2000m her last start and although she has to come back slightly in trip, she's a filly racing in very good form. PIGGYBACK (5) has returned in very good form and is right in the mix again. She's Unusual leads the journey and kicks away for an easy win! @JohnOSheaRacing — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) July 17, 2024 â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: I liked the way SOUNDS UNUSUAL (2) put away his rivals last start, looking like a promising middle distance type in the making. With any luck from the draw he is going to be hard to beat again. MISS KIM KAR (5) was not suited by the style of race last start but she gets nice cover with the claim here and is back in grade. INTERJECTION (3) ran a much better run with not much luck last start and does not work from the draw here on a suitable dry track. HOPPER (11) was great first-up, went up in class last time and ran well and might have more upside than most here. Thomas: SOUNDS UNUSUAL (2) demolished his rivals at Warwick Farm winning by a big margin in heavy going but he's just as effective on a firmer track. He's in the zone now and will be hard to beat again despite the outside draw. MISS KIM KAR (5) just missed a place at Randwick last start but wasn't beaten far in a race where the tempo was against her. She's racing well and can bounce back. HOPPER (11) has returned in good form and made a race of it with Mickey's Medal last start and that horse has since won again. ENGINE ROOM (6) won't be far away. ðŸ'Š Sounds Unusual wins with ease! A nice watch for punters as he sails to victory under @mcacajamez for @cwallerracing who score a double! @aus_turf_club — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) June 4, 2025 • â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: I like a longshot here in SALT LAKE CITY (1). He's an import who produced a much better run behind Loch Eagle at just his second Australian start in harder grade than this when he covered ground and ran fifth. With the claim and down in grade, I'm happy to have something on him at odds. ZAPHOD (4) didn't handle the very heavy track last start but I like the blinkers going on with the inside draw. PROMITTO (7) is going well without winning and although up in class he is very well weighted and has a good chance. QUANTUM CAT (10) has his hoof on the till and this appears a suitable race for him. Thomas: QUANTUM CAT (10) struck a very heavy track at Randwick but stuck to his guns when third to Glory Daze over 2000m. He has to come back slightly in trip but is better suited in the drier conditions. This is his chance. ZAPHOD (4) was an unplaced favourite in the same Randwick race last start deserves another chance on the firmer track here. HOLLYWOOD HERO (2) didn't have a lot of luck last start and stays under notice. I'm also wary of the improving SALT LAKE CITY (1). Loch Eagle flies to win at Randwick! 🦅 @Leesracing @aus_turf_club — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) June 7, 2025 â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: SHALL BE (4) appeals at odds to me. He's a shortcourse specialist resuming, he's a three-year-old who has done nothing wrong, he's got that coveted draw in a very fast race, and I feel he can sit right on them and run a very good race. GITALONG (2) was close up behind STORM THE RAMPARTS (1) last start and is 2.5kgs better off at the weights this time. HI DUBAI (3) might improve with that one run under her belt. LULUMON (6) was great first-up, should be forgiven for her last start failure and will be charging home off the hot speed. Thomas: GITALONG (2) travelled wide in front at Randwick last start and led for a long way only to be edged out by STORM THE RAMPARTS (1). The pair clash again, Gitalong is drawn inside his rival and meets him better at the weights. Gitalong on top from HI DUBAI (3) who ran very well when resuming and gets in nicely at the weights after the claim. LULUMON (6) ran down Storm The Ramparts at Gosford then had excuses at Rosehill and she rates among the main chances. No knock on Storm The Ramparts although he is creeping up in the weights. ⛈ï¸� Back-to-back Randwick wins for Storm The Ramparts as @PrideRacing trains the last three winners, and a double to Adam Hyeronimus! 🥳 @aus_turf_club — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) June 7, 2025 â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: OH DIAMOND LIL (6) was great winning first-up then a little flat last time on a softer track so back on a firmer footing and in a race where she can get some control she will be harder to run down. RAIKKONEN (1) is an exciting prospect heading in the right direction. He was fantastic with no luck last start but just that big weight and wide draw won't make it easy for him. CAPTAIN AMELIA (9) is going better than her form suggests and the drier track plays into her hands. WOOLOOWIN (3) was very good back to this class last start and she can hold that form now. Thomas: RAIKKONEN (1) is an emergency in the Civic Stakes but is in the field for that race now. If the stable runs here, he's the one to beat but it is likely they will go to the stakes race. If Raikkonen comes out as expected, then this is a very open race. CODE IN TIME (12) raced very consistently last campaign, resumes here off two even trials and he does sprint well fresh. OH DIAMOND LIL (6) can improve sharply on the drier track, as you pointed out, Ronnie. FIDDLERS GREEN (13) was very good first-up at Warwick Farm and will be finishing strongly. ðŸ'Ž Oh Diamond Lil gets the perfect run and wins at Scone! @KPMcEvoy | @DavidPfieffer — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 17, 2025 • â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: This is a good Civic Stakes, Ray. This is a better option for RAIKKONEN (21) even though it is a tougher race. If he gets a run he has a huge chance. HEADLEY GRANGE (13) is building a good looking record and it is hard to knock him even though there is more depth to this race. GREBENI (6) will be running on strongly late on the back-up. WELWAL (2) has had a few excuses of late and he is capable of an upset. Thomas: HEADLEY GRANGE (13) resumed with a brilliant win over 1300m at Randwick. He was held up for a run in the straight but when the gap came, he accelerated impressively and recorded a fast closing 200m sectional to win well. He will be fitter and excels over the 1400m here. RAIKKONEN (21) will be very hard to beat. He's a promising young sprinter and will be hitting the line hard. GREBENI (6) is racing very well and deserves a win. BASES LOADED (5) sprints well fresh and is drawn to advantage. Headley Grange wins first up to give @PrideRacing a Randwick double! 🙌 @aus_turf_club — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) June 7, 2025 â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: Godolphin is very strong here, I like all their horses. I'm interested in RAZORS (10). Although he hasn't raced for over a year he is very genuine and is trialling nicely. KERGUELEN (19) is the pick in the market of the Godolphin team but it is a big step in grade although he does look a nice horse in the making. He just has to prove himself on a drier track. CONTEMPORARY (1) hasn't won in a while but is nicely placed here third-up and loves the track and distance. FULLY LIT (14) has blinkers on and back to a drier track is capable of improving. Thomas: I've gone with KERGUELEN (19). He's lightly raced but obviously has ability and was impressive first-up beating Brave One at Rosehill. He will be improved and should go close despite his awkward draw. ACCREDITED (5) has drawn outside Kerguelen but will be suited getting onto a drier track. CONTEMPORARY (1) is up in the weights but he was competitive in a strong form race last start and PEREILLE (3) is fitter for recent racing.
