Pacers vs. Thunder Game 5 Predictions: Odds, expert picks, recent stats, trends and best bets for June 16
It's Monday, June 16, and the Indiana Pacers (50-32) and Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) are all set to square off from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City for Game 5 of the NBA Finals.
Oklahoma City took Game 4 at Indiana, 111-104, behind 62 combined points from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (35) and Jalen Williams (27), plus 14 points and 15 rebounds via Chet Holmgren. The OKC trio combined to shoot 24-of-51 from the field (47%) and a perfect 27-for-27 from the free-throw line.
The Thunder out-scored the Pacers 31-17 in the fourth quarter with Gilgeous-Alexander posting 15 of the final 16 points for Oklahoma City. Pascal Siakam led Indiana with 20 points and 8 rebounds, while Tyrese Haliburton poured in 18 points and 7 assists.
We've got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch tipoff, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game details & how to watch Pacers vs. Thunder live today
Date: Monday, June 16, 2025
Time: 8:30PM EST
Site: Paycom Center
City: Oklahoma City, OK
Network/Streaming: ESPN / ABC
Never miss a second of the action and stay up to date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-dayNBA schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game.
Game odds for Pacers vs. Thunder
The latest odds as of Monday:
Odds: Pacers (+310), Thunder (-395)
Spread: Thunder -9.5
Over/Under: 223.5 points
That gives the Pacers an implied team point total of 106.5, and the Thunder 116.5.
Want to know which sportsbook is offering the best lines for every game on the NBA calendar? Check out the NBC Sports' Live Odds tool to get all the latest updated info from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM & more!
Expert picks & predictions for Monday's Pacers vs. Thunder game
'Indiana had its chance to go up 3-1 headed back to OKC but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put the Thunder on his back in the fourth quarter to split the series 2-2. That could have been the nail in the coffin for the Pacers, but only time will tell.
For +105 odds and considering the Thunder are -395 home favorites in Game 5 and should be at least -180 favorites in Game 6, I like the value in the exact series score to be Thunder in 6. If you like the Pacers to win the series, I think there is value on Pascal Siakam to win NBA Finals MVP at +850 to +1000"
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NBA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for today's Pacers & Thunder game:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Indiana Pacers at +9.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 223.5.
Want even more NBA best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert NBA Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and over/under picks for every game on today's calendar!
Important stats, trends & insights to know ahead of Pacers vs. Thunder on Monday
Oklahoma City is 2-0 in Game 5's this postseason, while Indiana is 2-1
Tyrese Haliburton has recorded at least six assists in all four NBA Finals games
Pascal Siakam has recorded at least six rebounds in all four NBA Finals games
Jalen Williams has scored at least 17 points in all four NBA Finals games
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 30-plus points in three of the four NBA Finals games
Chet Holmgren has double-doubled in the past two games
Alex Caruso has scored double-figures in two of four NBA Finals games
If you're looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our NBA Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
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The Thunder have outscored the Pacers by an average of 44.7-38.7 points per game in the paint this series. They're also averaging 25.7 made free throws per game to the Pacers' 19.8 per game. But 3-pointers have largely been the Pacers' equalizer as they've made 13.0 per game to the Thunder's 10.0 per game. Their Game 1 comeback was fueled by 18 3s including 10-on-20 attempts in the second half and six on 10 attempts in the fourth quarter while the Thunder finished 11-of-30 from beyond the arc including 0-of-5 in the fourth. In Game 6, the Pacers made 15 3s to the Thunder's eight with five of Oklahoma City's 3s coming in the fourth quarter when the game had already been decided compared to just one of Indiana's. However, the Thunder's wins have also been fueled by the 3-ball and they've proven to be a sharp-shooting team all season, ranking sixth in the NBA in both 3-pointers made and 3-point percentage. They hit 14 3s each in Game 2 and Game 5, their most convincing wins. They also proved they can win without the 3 with their Game 4 victory coming despite a 3-of-16 performance from beyond the arc. For both teams, the best outside shooters in the series have been role players. Forward Aaron Nesmith leads the Pacers with 16 3s on 33 attempts (48.5%). Forward Obi Toppin is next with 13 on 33 attempts. All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton also has 13 but he's needed 41 attempts to get there for a shaky 31.7% clip. Guards Andrew Nembhard (9-of-23), T.J. McConnell (3-of-5) and Ben Sheppard (4-of-11) have hit some big shots on relatively low volume. For the Thunder, guard Luguentz Dort (15-of-31) wing Aaron Wiggins (10-of-21) and guard Alex Caruso (8-of-20) have come through with important shots while their stars have struggled from outside. Gilgeous-Alexander is 6-of-21 from 3, Williams is 6-of-23 and star young center Chet Holmgren is 2-of-17. Cason Wallace, who made 35.6% of his 3s this year and 41.9% last year, is 3-of-13 so far. Sharpshooter Isaiah Joe is 5-of-9 from 3 but four of his five makes have come in the Thunder's decisive losses in Game 3 and Game 6. It tends to be the case role players shoot better at home and the Thunder have proven that to be the case with Wiggins, Wallace and Dort combining for 10 3s in Game 5 and Wiggins and Caruso combining for nine in Game 2. However the Pacers are 43-of-109 from 3 at the Paycom Center in the Finals (39.4%) so even if the Thunder pick it up they can keep pace. 3. Bench Production The Pacers and Thunder both consider depth to be among their most important strengths, so it stands to reason that bench scoring has played a critical role in the series. In four of the six games, the winning team has been the one that scored the most points off the bench including all three of the Pacers' wins. The Thunder bench outscored the Pacers' 48-34 in Game 2 but lost 49-18 in Game 3 and those were definitive figures in those two games. The Pacers lead the series in bench scoring with 41.5 points per game to the Thunder's 30.8, their bench players are shooting 48.9% from the floor while the Thunder subs are making 44.5% of their shots and the Pacers' bench is also averaging more rebounds (15.8-14.8) and assists (7.0-5.7) per game than the Thunder. However, Oklahoma City's subs are shooting better from 3-point range, making 44.3% of their attempts compared to the Pacers' 39.1% and they're averaging more steals (4.7-4.3) per game. Pacers subs T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin have been two of their most consistent performers with Toppin averaging 12.8 points and 5.5 rebounds per game in the series and McConnell averaging 11.3 points on 53.7% shooting, 4.5 assists and 2.3 steals per game. Thunder guard Alex Caruso is averaging 10.2 points per game and been one of the team's top defenders. Wings Bennedict Mathurin of the Pacers and Aaron Wiggins have been X-Factors. Mathurin scored 27 points on 9-of-12 shooting in the Pacers' Game 3 win, but he has a total of 17 points on 4-of-19 shooting since. Wiggins scored 18 points in Game 2 and 14 in Game 5 in wins, but he has a total of nine points on 2-of-11 shooting in the other four games. 4. Defense on the stars Game 7s are often the games when superstars become legends. LeBron James posted a 27-point, 11-rebound, 11-assist triple-double in the last NBA Finals Game 7 and had two steals and three blocks including the chase-down swat that counts as one of the high points in his pantheon-caliber career. He had 37 points in the previous Finals Game 7 for the Heat against the Spurs in 2013. Kobe Bryant had 23 points and 15 rebounds in a messy Game 7 win for the Lakers over the Celtics in 2010. Tim Duncan had 25 of the Spurs' 81 points when they beat the Pistons in 2005. So big burdens will fall on the shoulders of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams for the Thunder and Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam for the Pacers. And big burdens will fall on the players charged with guarding them and with the coaches trying to create defensive game plans to make them uncomfortable. Gilgeous-Alexander, the league MVP in 2024-25 and the league's leading scorer, is averaging 30.5 points per game in the series on 47.5% shooting, but Andrew Nembhard and the Pacers have made him look mortal in the Thunder's losses, especially Game 6 when they held him to 21 points on 7-of-15 shooting. After pressing him full-court all series, they moved back their pick-up points a little but brought increased ball pressure in the halfcourt and harassed him into eight turnovers. Williams is averaging 24.2 points per game in the series but the Pacers held him under 20 in three of the first six games including Game 6 when he scored just 16 on 6-of-13 shooting. Haliburton has had to deal with Dort and Caruso and those assignments have been difficult and his numbers are down from his regular season stats and his playoff stats prior to the Finals. He's averaging 14.8 points per game on 44.7% shooting and 31.7% shooting to go with 6.8 assists per game. However, he does have a pair of double-doubles and posted 14 points and five assists despite a strained right calf in Game 6. Siakam has proven to be the toughest assignment for the Thunder as he's been guarded by defenders who are either undersized (Williams and Caruso) or oversized (Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein) compared to him. He's leading the Pacers with 19.8 points per game. 5. Coaching Oklahoma City's Mark Daigneault is one of the most promising young coaches to come through the NBA in some time. At 40 years old, he already has a Coach of the Year award to his name and this year he coached the Thunder to 68 wins, the fifth-highest regular season total in NBA history. Still, Daigneault entered these playoffs fully aware of what he was up against in 65-year-old Pacers coach Rick Carlisle who ranks 11th all-time in regular season coaching wins (993) and 10th in playoff wins (86). After spending six straight games across the chess board from him, he's even more impressed. "Humbling," Daigneault said when asked to describe the experience. "He's a great coach. Their team plays with a ruthlessly consistent identity. They really compete. They are never out of a game. They have done an unbelievable job collectively of building the team to the point where they can get to this point and perform the way they have to this point. It's been the case, there's not a lot of nights where you feel like you're at an advantage from a coaching standpoint. There's great coaches in the league, and he's certainly right at the top of the list." Haliburton describes Carlisle as a "savant" and he's managed to come through with wrinkles throughout the series that have shifted the momentum, especially when the Pacers were reeling after losses. He's turned up full-court defensive pressure and turned it down for the purpose of ratcheting up half-court pressure. He's found ways to get the ball in the paint when the Pacers have struggled and found ways to cut down on turnovers when those got too high. He's found mismatches to attack and ways to keep players involved when the Thunder were focused on taking them out. But Daigneault has also had counters of his own, changing lineups to create advantageous defensive matchups and to lean into their size and after the Pacers rallied back to take Game 1 on the road he managed to help engineer a comeback late in Game 4 to give the Thunder homecourt advantage back. The experience factor would still seem to play in Carlisle's favor but after six games of being humbled, Daigneault has certainly learned from coaching against an old master. He doesn't necessarily have to outsmart Carlisle, but if he might have to neutralize him.
