GeoPark's Shareholder Plan Creates Opening to Thwart Hostile Bid

Latin American oil and gas producer GeoPark looks to be making moves to defend itself form a hostile takeover after a rival energy firm took a large stake in the company.
In a shareholder rights plan announced on Tuesday, Bogotá-based GeoPark adopted a mechanism for rights to become exercisable if an entity or person acquires ownership of 12% or more in the company. The move follows a recent SEC filing by Pampa Energy Inc., which reported a 10.17% holding in GeoPark.

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A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Kim Heng Limited (Catalist:5G2)

The projected fair value for Kim Heng is S$0.11 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity With S$0.089 share price, Kim Heng appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value Peers of Kim Heng are currently trading on average at a 97% premium How far off is Kim Heng Limited (Catalist:5G2) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex. Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit. We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value: 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF (SGD, Millions) S$6.33m S$5.88m S$5.63m S$5.50m S$5.46m S$5.46m S$5.50m S$5.57m S$5.66m S$5.76m Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ -11.11% Est @ -7.07% Est @ -4.24% Est @ -2.26% Est @ -0.87% Est @ 0.10% Est @ 0.78% Est @ 1.25% Est @ 1.58% Est @ 1.82% Present Value (SGD, Millions) Discounted @ 8.8% S$5.8 S$5.0 S$4.4 S$3.9 S$3.6 S$3.3 S$3.0 S$2.8 S$2.6 S$2.5 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = S$37m After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.4%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.8%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = S$5.8m× (1 + 2.4%) ÷ (8.8%– 2.4%) = S$91m Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= S$91m÷ ( 1 + 8.8%)10= S$39m The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is S$76m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of S$0.09, the company appears about fair value at a 17% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind. We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Kim Heng as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.498. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. Check out our latest analysis for Kim Heng Strength Debt is well covered by cash flow. Weakness Earnings declined over the past year. Interest payments on debt are not well covered. Opportunity Current share price is below our estimate of fair value. Lack of analyst coverage makes it difficult to determine 5G2's earnings prospects. Threat No apparent threats visible for 5G2. Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Kim Heng, we've compiled three important aspects you should assess: Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 5 warning signs for Kim Heng (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered! Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Singaporean stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. — Investing narratives with Fair Values Vita Life Sciences Set for a 12.72% Revenue Growth While Tackling Operational Challenges By Robbo – Community Contributor Fair Value Estimated: A$2.42 · 0.1% Overvalued Vossloh rides a €500 billion wave to boost growth and earnings in the next decade By Chris1 – Community Contributor Fair Value Estimated: €78.41 · 0.1% Overvalued Intuitive Surgical Will Transform Healthcare with 12% Revenue Growth By Unike – Community Contributor Fair Value Estimated: $325.55 · 0.6% Undervalued View more featured narratives — Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

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27 minutes ago

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Trump's Airstrikes on Iran Leave Oil Market Poised for Surge

(Bloomberg) -- The oil market has been wrestling for days with Donald Trump's next act in an escalating Middle East conflict. Now American jets have struck Iran's three main nuclear sites, a move that leaves traders preparing for a price surge — but still guessing where the crisis goes from here. Bezos Wedding Draws Protests, Soul-Searching Over Tourism in Venice One Architect's Quest to Save Mumbai's Heritage From Disappearing JFK AirTrain Cuts Fares 50% This Summer to Lure Riders Off Roads NYC Congestion Toll Cuts Manhattan Gridlock by 25%, RPA Reports Taser-Maker Axon Triggers a NIMBY Backlash in its Hometown In a wild week, Brent futures have jumped 11% since Israel attacked its nemesis, but with sharp moves up and down from one day to the next. That rise is expected to restart on Monday, after the US assault — which targeted sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan — dramatically raised the stakes in a region that accounts for a third of global oil output. From frenzied options markets, to soaring freight and diesel pricing, to a radical redrawing of crude's pivotal forward curve, all of that volatility is expected to intensify in the week ahead. 'Much depends on how Iran responds in the coming hours and days — but this could set us on a path toward $100 oil, if Iran responds as they have previously threatened to,' said Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Marquee. 'This US attack could see a conflagration of the conflict to include Iran responding by targeting regional American interests that include Gulf oil infrastructure in places such as Iraq, or harassing passage through the Strait of Hormuz.' The maritime chokepoint at the mouth of the Persian Gulf is a vital conduit for not just Iranian shipments, but also for those from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Central to everything is the Trump administration's ultimate intention in Iran, having joined Israel's attack. At one stage last week, it appeared more a question of when than if. That then changed late Thursday, when the US president said he'd mull his decision for two weeks. Then in the early hours of Sunday, Iranian time, he announced that Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan were struck, and described a 'payload of BOMBS' dropped on Fordow, a key location of uranium enrichment. 'The market wants certainty, and this now firmly pushes the US into the Middle East theater,' said Joe DeLaura, a former trader and global energy strategist at Rabobank, adding prices were now expected to rise when oil reopens. 'But I think that this means the US Navy will be tasked to keep the Strait open,' he said, adding prices could head into the $80-to-$90 a barrel range. Still, so far there has been little sign of disruption to oil flows from the region. 'Should the US provide direct military support to Israel and play its part in removing the current regime the initial market reaction will be a price spike,' said Tamas Varga, an analyst at brokerage PVM Oil Associates Ltd, said at the end of last week. But his firm's expectation is that oil will not become part of the conflict because it's not in the interests of either side. The fate of oil matters because it drives fuel prices and inflation — something Trump said he would quell when he was campaigning for office. In times of extreme volatility, shortages of oil have even precipitated recessions. So far, there's been no meaningful curtailment through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's produced and consumed oil flows every day. Indeed, Iran even appears to be racing to lift its exports as part of its logistical response to the conflict. Avoiding a wider conflagration and preventing disruptions to supply would push oil prices lower, while also bringing down everything that spiked in tandem with them. Against that, America joining could be all-defining, calling into question security through the waterway and from the region at large. On Friday, Iran said it might consider adjustments to its enrichment program, driving down futures and reminding the world that Tehran's actions are important to petroleum markets too. Among assets roiled by the tension are options contracts, where traders paid enormous premiums to hedge against further price spikes. At times since the conflict began, they paid the most to protect against a rally since at least 2013. Record volumes of bullish call options have changed hands since the attacks started. Exiting Trades The market, though, was on edge even before Trump's announcement. Traders have been exiting futures positions at one of the fastest rates on record — an indication of both the stress that higher levels of volatility is placing on derivatives books, and the unpredictable path ahead. In total, the number of futures contracts held on the main exchanges plunged by the equivalent of 367 million barrels, or about 7%, since the close on June. 12, the eve of Israel's attack. Traders and brokers say the higher levels of volatility have made pricing deals harder over the past week. 'Traders and analysts should be viewing the current oil price gyrations in the context of speculative de-risking,' said Ryan Fitzmaurice, senior commodities strategist at Marex Group Plc. 'Going forward, market volatility and open interest will be key areas to watch.' The cost of hiring a ship to carry crude from the Middle East to China has jumped close to 90% since before Israeli attacks began. Earnings for vessels carrying fuels like gasoline and jet fuel have also leaped, as have insurance premiums. The danger to vessels in the region's waters was underscored when two oil tankers crashed into each other causing a fiery explosion — though on this occasion, the ship's owner asserted there was no link to the conflict. Still, almost 1,000 ships a day are having their GPS signals jammed, creating growing safety risks. The MICA Center, a French liaison between the military and commercial shipping, said the tanker crash was likely 'aggravated' by jamming. 'Next days will be critical in determining whether a diplomatic solution with Iran is possible and if the US might resort to military action,' it said in an update. 'Maritime trade is not being targeted. The situation might change abruptly.' The risk to flows from the region, coupled with the sharp increase in shipping costs, is bolstering demand for crudes from outside of the Persian Gulf. Pullback Risk The higher different prices race, the greater the risk of a pullback if the prospect of de-escalation takes shape. And even if tensions do remain high, there's precedent from a few years ago for a meaningful supply disruption to quickly get resolved. When an attack in 2019 on processing facilities at Abqaiq in Saudi Arabia knocked out 7% of global supply, it took just a few weeks for crude futures to trade lower than before the attacks occurred, as supplies were quickly restored and backfilled. That's one reason, coupled with a persistent threat of geopolitical risks that often don't morph into real supply curbs, why traders say prices haven't spiked more in recent days. 'This is the big one,' said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, pointing to a $8-a-barrel risk premium as plausible. 'The market default on this development is higher. How high depends on Iran's response — or the realistic prospects of a meaningful response, which may not be there.' --With assistance from Stephen Stapczynski, Julia Fanzeres and Mia Gindis. (Writes through after Trump announces attack.) Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags Is Mark Cuban the Loudmouth Billionaire that Democrats Need for 2028? Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros The US Has More Copper Than China But No Way to Refine All of It Can 'MAMUWT' Be to Musk What 'TACO' Is to Trump? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

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UBS Sticks With Buy Rating on Kinder Morgan (KMI)

Kinder Morgan, Inc. (NYSE:KMI) is one of the 10 Best Oil and Gas Stocks to Buy Now. On June 11, UBS maintained its 'Buy' rating on Kinder Morgan, Inc. (NYSE:KMI) with a price target of $38. The research firm highlighted that the company will see a full quarter contribution from its Outrigger acquisition. UBS slightly raised its estimate for Kinder Morgan, Inc.'s (NYSE:KMI) EBITDA for the second quarter of 2025. The firm's new estimate is $1.932 billion, up from the previous $1.929 billion. This forecast is about 0.6% higher than the company's own guidance of $1.92 billion. UBS pointed out that Kinder Morgan, Inc.'s (NYSE:KMI) guidance does not include any contribution from the Outrigger acquisition. Aerial view of an oil and gas pipeline, spanning vast landscapes. The new estimate takes into account the full-quarter impact of the acquisition, higher operating costs in the first quarter for natural gas pipelines due to timing issues, and benefits from higher natural gas prices. The analysts believe that the first quarter did not show the full impact of the Outrigger acquisition. This was because transaction costs offset 1.5 months of contribution from Outrigger. UBS analysts noted that the second quarter will be 'the first clean quarter' for evaluating the impact of the acquisition. Kinder Morgan, Inc. (NYSE:KMI) is one of North America's largest energy infrastructure companies. It owns and operates pipelines and terminals. The company's pipelines transport natural gas, gasoline, and crude oil. While we acknowledge the potential of KMI as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: 11 Stocks That Will Bounce Back According To Analysts and 11 Best Stocks Under $15 to Buy According to Hedge Funds. Disclosure: None. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data