To allow ignorance about Stats SA to run supreme should not be allowed
I had hoped the forthcoming title And December Came: The Odyssey of Leadership —Navigating in Silence and Building Audaciously would hit the shelves in another six months, but a glimpse and preview had to come earlier. It was prompted by the unwelcome and vulgar articulations of Gerrie Fourie (https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/economy/2025-06-10-capitec-ceo-argues-sas-jobless-rate-as-low-as-10/), the CEO of Capitec, and trade and industry minister Parks Tau (https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2025-06-10-tau-backs-capitec-ceos-call-for-new-approach-to-unemployment-data/), who decided to echo Fourie, and then ANC choristers were unleashed to lampoon the national numbers. Baas Fourie had spoken. ..
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IOL News
12 hours ago
- IOL News
The ethical blind spots in SA's unemployment stats
South Africa's high unemployment also stands out globally. The writer says South Africa's metrics function as biopolitical instruments that perpetuate apartheid-era exclusion by rendering Black economic agency statistically non-existent. Image: File THIS opinion piece responds to former Statistician-General Pali Lehohla's article Debating the Labour Force Survey – A Response to Fourie's Critique. It serves as a rebuttal to his critique of my earlier article, Why Capitec's CEO Is Forcing SA to Rethink Its Unemployment Narrative, in which I argued that South Africa's unemployment figures fail to reflect the lived economic realities of the majority Black population. Lehohla claims that my article has 'amplified the debate' and insists on setting the record straight before it spirals into misinformation and speculation. However, my article did not reject StatsSA data outright. Instead, I argued that South Africa's high unemployment statistics are shaped by a biopolitical statistical system that invisibly erases informal economic activity and Black labour. This is largely due to restrictive measurement methodologies and the active suppression of the informal sector, unlike in other developing countries. I proposed the adoption of hybrid metrics and structural reforms to more accurately capture and support this vital, yet uncounted, segment of the economy. My stance aligns with UCT economist Haroon Bhorat, who engages constructively with Fourie's arguments rather than dismissing them entirely. Lehohla, however, dismisses Fourie's estimate of a 10% unemployment rate — based on informal economic activity — as 'abracadabra', 'lying', and the rant of a 'random businessman who profits from Black communities'. His anger masks a deeper crisis: South Africa's economic measurement system, though methodologically sound, is philosophically ill-equipped to account for the informal, digital, and survivalist nature of the majority-Black workforce. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Next Stay Close ✕ Lehohla defends StatsSA's unemployment figures based on their adherence to International Labour Organisation (ILO) standards and the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS). Yet, I argue that this technical rigour obscures vast swaths of economic activity. For instance, a township hairdresser or street vendor without formal records becomes statistically invisible. This creates a profound ethical issue: stark racial disparities in unemployment, with Black South Africans facing an expanded unemployment rate of 40%, compared to just 7% for white South Africans. South Africa's high unemployment also stands out globally. Countries like Mexico (55% informal, 4.5% unemployment) and Nigeria (85% informal, 3.34% unemployment) include self-reported informal work in their statistics. In contrast, South Africa's metrics function as biopolitical instruments that perpetuate apartheid-era exclusion by rendering Black economic agency statistically non-existent. Bhorat notes that UCT's Development Policy Research Unit (DPRU) consistently shows South Africa having one of the highest unemployment rates globally (33.6%), but also one of the lowest informality rates (about 16.3%). He highlights how most emerging economies address unemployment not by creating more formal jobs, but by allowing informal work to flourish. DPRU research further suggests that South Africa's unusually high unemployment is not primarily due to poor job growth or strict labour laws, but because our economy actively suppresses the informal sector. My advice to DPRU is not to shy away from confronting the moral failures or societal consequences that their data may obscure. Lehohla's refusal to engage meaningfully illustrates the difficulty of escaping the grip of orthodox economics and its limitations. Orthodox economics treats the economy — and by extension, social life — as a predictable machine operating in equilibrium. When official statistics diverge from lived experiences, the social contract built on citizens sharing data begins to erode, revealing a deep crisis within the discipline of economics. Unlike Adam Smith — who grounded market value in ethics and social relations in The Theory of Moral Sentiments — modern economics has severed this moral root, prioritising abstract mathematical models over real-world complexity. Joseph Stiglitz warns that GDP-centric metrics obscure true well-being. Persistent youth unemployment amidst trillions of rands in township transactions is not merely an error — it reflects a flawed measurement paradigm. Kenneth Boulding adds that modern economics builds on classical works like The Wealth of Nations and Das Kapital, which contain unrealised 'evolutionary potential' absent in contemporary models. He cautions that excluding economic history from graduate education produces 'idiots savant' — technically proficient economists who lack institutional understanding and historical insight. A balanced synthesis of modern analytical tools and classical wisdom can help bridge this divide, fostering critical engagement with economics as both a technical and humanistic discipline. Lehohla's defence rests on rigid positivism — the belief in the 'holy' authority of statistical processes — yet this glosses over the ethical roots of economic thought. For Smith, wealth was defined by the ability to command others' labour — a social relationship, not a cold data point. Modern economics, however, has decoupled itself from these normative foundations. As Stiglitz points out, most metrics conceal inequality and human suffering, reducing development to arithmetic rather than justice. This philosophical drift is evident in South Africa: while StatsSA reports rising unemployment, Capitec Bank documents over R2 trillion in township transactions — a vibrant economic reality invisible to official instruments. This disconnect signals a deeper crisis in economics. Equilibrium models and optimisation problems eclipse historical nuance, cultural dynamics, and power relations. Boulding warned of this technocratic drift, describing modern economists as technicians fluent in calculus but blind to social texture. In a direct response to me, Lehohla stated: 'There is no legacy to protect on my part, Bhungane (my totem), nor language to polish. When a lie is told, there is no reason to give it a different word. It is simply a 'lie,' and when an argument does not make sense, it is called nonsense in the English language, and when nonsense is given wheels and wings to fly, it is called 'rubbish.' Those who wish to opine should do so from research rather than from a hailer.' While I may not use his hyperbolic or confrontational language, I am neither uninformed nor inexperienced in public discourse. I have an academic and policy track record that makes me far more than 'a hailer.' As many have rightly pointed out, shouting or using aggressive language does not strengthen an argument. We must allow space for multiple viewpoints to ensure inclusive policymaking around poverty, inequality, land reform, and unemployment. Finally, Lehohla attributes South Africa's unique unemployment situation to two key factors: agricultural activity tied to land ownership and high levels of economic concentration. He argues that these factors challenge simplistic international comparisons and emphasise the centrality of the land question in shaping employment outcomes. No. Lehohla is deliberately conflating issues to obscure the fact that his revered unemployment metrics miss the ethical forest for the numerical trees. Siyayibanga le economy! * Siyabonga Hadebe is an independent commentator based in Geneva on socio-economic, political and global matters. ** The views expressed here do not reflect those of the Sunday Independent, Independent Media, or IOL. Get the real story on the go: Follow the Sunday Independent on WhatsApp.
IOL News
18 hours ago
- IOL News
The weaponisation of intelligence in SA politics
Nco Dube a political economist, businessman, and social commentator. Image: Supplied The recent revelation by former uMkhonto weSizwe Party Secretary General Floyd Shivambu, who claims he was sacked on the basis of a fake intelligence report, is neither new nor surprising in the context of South Africa's post-apartheid political landscape. Instead, it is the latest in a long line of controversies where unverified intelligence reports have been deployed as weapons in intra-party feuds, factional battles, and the broader contest for power, often with former president Jacob Zuma at the centre. The use of intelligence reports—real, doctored, or entirely fabricated—as tools for political ends is deeply embedded in our recent history. The so-called 'Browse Mole Report' is a prime example: a controversial document that allegedly implicated various political figures and was used as justification for decisive political actions, despite its questionable provenance. Throughout Zuma's presidency and beyond, a series of unverified intelligence reports have surfaced, each conveniently appearing at moments of heightened political tension, often to the detriment of Zuma's rivals or critics. These reports have not only been used to discredit opponents but have also served as pretexts for removals, suspensions, and even criminal investigations. The pattern is clear: intelligence, or at least the suggestion of it, becomes a bludgeon in the hands of those seeking to manipulate outcomes within the ANC (or its offshoots like the EFF and the MKP) and the state at large. Another one of the most infamous cases was the so-called 'Operation Check Mate' intelligence report. In March 2017, then-President Jacob Zuma abruptly instructed Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan to cancel an international investor roadshow and return to South Africa. The only explanation offered was an 'intelligence report' alleging that Gordhan was plotting with foreign interests in the UK and the US to overthrow the state. The report's existence and authenticity were never substantiated, and it was widely dismissed as a fabrication designed to justify Gordhan's removal and facilitate a cabinet reshuffle. In December 2021, journalist Thabo Makwakwa received a purported State Security Agency (SSA) report alleging that the United States had infiltrated the ANC's leadership to the point of influencing or subverting national policy. The report was used to justify a High Court gag order preventing publication, ostensibly for reasons of national security. However, the Supreme Court of Appeal later ruled that the classification of the report as 'secret' was unjustified and that its suppression served the political interests of the ANC, not the country. The court's decision exposed how the SSA's mechanisms were misused to fight internal ANC battles and highlighted the blurred lines between party and state. There have also been instances where fake intelligence reports were used to push false claims of judicial corruption. Political figures like Bantu Holomisa, Julius Malema, and former Public Protector Busisiwe Mkhwebane have been accused of leveraging such reports to undermine the judiciary's credibility. These tactics not only damage individual reputations but also erode public trust in key democratic institutions. Another example is the 'enemy of the state' dossier targeting the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (Numsa). This fake report surfaced during a period of intense labour and political contestation, aiming to discredit Numsa leaders and justify state surveillance or action against them. The report was later exposed as baseless, but not before it had caused significant disruption within the union and the broader labour movement. The Supreme Court of Appeal's rulings and investigative journalism have repeatedly shown how the SSA has been weaponised to serve the interests of particular ANC factions. The agency's resources and credibility have been compromised by their use in intra-party feuds, often with little regard for legality or national interest. Shivambu's claim that a fake intelligence report was used to justify his removal fits seamlessly into this established pattern. His experience reflects the broader reality of intelligence being weaponised in the service of political factionalism. The implications of his allegations are profound: they highlight the persistent challenge of verifying intelligence in a context where its very existence is often shrouded in secrecy and where the mere mention of a 'report' can be enough to destroy reputations and careers. Why Intelligence Is So Easily Weaponised South Africa's intelligence community has its roots in the clandestine operations of both the apartheid regime and the liberation movements. The skills, networks, and mindsets developed during those years did not simply disappear with the advent of democracy. Instead, they were repurposed, sometimes for noble ends, but often for the pursuit of personal or factional power. The ANC, as the dominant political force, has long been riven by internal divisions. Intelligence operatives and their reports are frequently drawn into these battles, not in the service of national security, but to gather dirt on rivals, discredit them, and sway internal elections. This dynamic has only intensified as the stakes have grown, with control of the state and its resources hanging in the balance. The Zuma Factor Jacob Zuma's career is inextricably linked with the intelligence world. As a former head of intelligence for the ANC in exile, Zuma has always understood the power of information and disinformation. His rise to power and his presidency were marked by a proliferation of intelligence-related scandals, from the so-called 'spy tapes' to the endless stream of dossiers implicating his enemies in plots, corruption, or treason. Zuma's embedded relationship with intelligence operatives, both official and shadowy, allows him to cultivate an aura of omniscience and threat: his opponents could never be sure what he knows, what he was willing to fabricate, or how far he would go to protect himself. The Mechanics of Fake Intelligence Reports Fake intelligence reports are typically crafted by individuals or groups with access to the language, format, and networks of the intelligence community. They are then leaked, sometimes anonymously, sometimes through willing intermediaries, to the media, party structures, or law enforcement agencies. The reports are rarely subjected to rigorous verification; their power lies in their ability to sow doubt and suspicion, not in their factual accuracy. Once in circulation, these reports serve multiple functions, discrediting political opponents by associating them with scandal or criminality. They then justify suspensions, removals, or investigations under the guise of 'due diligence,' creating an atmosphere of fear and mistrust, deterring would-be challengers from stepping out of line. The media, often hungry for scoops and exclusives, can become unwitting amplifiers of these reports. Even when journalists are sceptical, the mere existence of a 'leaked intelligence report' is newsworthy, and the damage to reputations is often irreversible, regardless of subsequent denials or debunking. Few, if any, of those responsible for producing or disseminating fake intelligence reports are ever held to account. The ephemeral nature of these documents and the secrecy that surrounds them make it difficult to trace responsibility or impose consequences. For those in power, the ability to instill fear and uncertainty is a potent weapon. Zuma's Legacy: Intelligence as a Source of Power and Control Zuma's presidency did not invent the use of intelligence as a political tool, but it did elevate it to an art form. By cultivating relationships with both official intelligence operatives and shadowy figures, Zuma created an environment where information, real or fabricated, became the currency of power. His willingness to deploy intelligence innuendo, to hint at plots and conspiracies, and to use reports (however dubious) as justification for political action has left a lasting mark on South African politics.
IOL News
19 hours ago
- IOL News
Joburg council under fire for questionable acting appointments and secondments
The City of Johannesburg council has been warned against approving the extension of several acting appointments, including that of temporary City Manager Tshepo Makola. Image: Nhlanhla Phillips / Independent Newspapers The City of Johannesburg has been warned against extending several acting appointments in senior positions. It has also asked Gauteng Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs MEC, Jacob Mamabolo, to second top officials to act. This week, the ANC-led Government of Local Unity tabled in council a report on the progress made in filling senior manager positions, the current recruitment of senior manager positions, vacant senior manager positions, and current acting arrangements. In acting City Manager Tshepo Makola's position, council was due to permit Mayor Dada Morero to request in writing that Mamabolo second a suitable candidate, on such conditions as prescribed, and/or to request the extension of his current acting appointment to act in the advertised position of city manager until such time a suitable person has been appointed. There are also positions of managers directly accountable to the city manager that the council wanted to authorise Makola or his delegate to request Mamabolo to second a suitable candidate, on such conditions as prescribed, and/or to appoint any internal suitable divisional senior manager to act in the advertised position of a manager directly accountable to the city manager, until such time a suitable person has been appointed. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Ad loading The positions, all in acting capacities, include Group Head of Communication and Marketing Candice Molefe, Executive Head: Social Development Dr Tinashe Mushayanyama, Head of the Public Safety Department Andries Mucavele, Chief Operations Officer, Helen Botes, Executive Head: Human Settlements Oupa Nkoane, and Executive Head Office of the City Manager Siyabonga Nodu. In Mushayanyama and Molefe's acting appointments, the city sought Mamabolo's agreement to extend the acting period by three months, or until such time a suitable person has been appointed. According to the municipality, legislation concerning a vacant city manager position appears to authorise requesting a secondment from Mamabolo only after the initial six-month acting period has lapsed, but does not allow a request for a waiver, or to appoint an acting city manager from its current directly accountable managers. 'In respect of managers directly accountable to the municipal (city) manager, the legislation is silent and does not instruct for a request for secondment, meaning the municipality may appoint another person to act as a manager directly accountable to the city manager,' noted the City of Joburg. The municipality also indicated that a 2022 circular on the implementation of the Municipal Systems Amendment Act seems to suggest that after the lapse of six months, the municipal council must request for secondment. However, the DA has warned against the 'troubling' move, stating that the council, or any other official within the city, lacks the legal authority to appoint a different person to act in a vacant position after the expiry of another person's three-month acting period. 'Yet it appears that that is precisely what has occurred within the city. Council does not have the power to 'approve' or 'ratify' expired acting roles, including acting roles that have surpassed three months,' the DA cautioned on Wednesday, through its lawyers, Minde Schapiro & Smith Inc. The party said Makola requested Mamabolo to extend the acting periods that have already expired when he (Mamabolo) has no such power. Makola disclosed no 'special circumstances' or 'good cause' warranting an extension of the acting appointments, according to the DA.
