Wildfires: climate change cause and effect
Opinion
Do we believe what we see or see what we believe?
This question is at the heart of humanity's willingness to act on climate change. In the wake of record wildfire damage in Canada in 2023, the hottest year on record for the Earth in 2024, and scientists warning we will breach any chance of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2027, it is fair to wonder.
Do our world leaders believe in more climate change action? The G7 summit just concluded in Kananaskis suggests not. The term 'climate change' did not appear once in any of their communiques, a sharp departure from past summits but perhaps a sign of the times. Times preoccupied with urgent global economic and military conflicts and a U.S. Trump administration that has banned the term.
Wildland fires like this one near Pimicikamak Cree Nation earlier this year, aren't only increasing as a result of climate change. They add to it as well.
But if 'seeing is believing', then the G7 did see something alarming about our changing climate: wildfires. They issued the Kananaskis Wildfire Charter, stating: 'These increasingly extreme wildfires are endangering lives, affecting human health, destroying homes and ecosystems, and costing governments and taxpayers billions of dollars each year.'
Wildfires are Canada's most public of dirty climate secrets. When we think of our biggest greenhouse gas (GHG) polluters, we tend to focus on the oil and gas sector. Think again. Canada's record wildfires in 2023 burned more than 16 million hectares of land, an area as large as 30 Winnipegs put together. It generated an estimated 647 megatonnes of carbon according to the authoritative scientific journal Nature. That is almost as much as all of Canada emitted the year before (709 megatonnes), and three times as much as the oil and gas sector itself.
Trees and forests are natural carbon sinks. They absorb carbon dioxide when they are alive and healthy. But they release CO2 when they burn. Hot and dry weather caused by a changing climate is causing earlier starts to the fire season. It is making our forests more combustible when fires start. Forest fires become larger in area and of longer duration with more carbon emissions released.
But Canada, like most countries, does not count most carbon emissions from wildfires in its GHG inventory. This is for two reasons. First, because the United Nations' climate rules focus on what's called 'anthropogenic' or human-caused emissions and second, it is hard to distinguish between carbon released from planned or managed land use changes such as timber practices and urban sprawl, versus unplanned wildfires.
The atmosphere begs to differ. It doesn't care about carbon rules or even sources. It cares about carbon accumulation. Climate impacts today are caused from yesterday's carbon emissions, not tomorrow's. And it's caused by everyone's emissions, not just ours.
Canada is more exposed to this vicious circle than any other country, due to our northern latitude and higher rates of warming being experienced. There's a reason we are on track for our second-worst wildfire season ever with 3.9 million hectares already burning and over 120 fires officially 'out of control', according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre.
What's the solution? Sadly, nothing easy, fast, or cheap.
The federal government is spending $3.2 billion to plant two billion new trees over the next ten years. So far, 160 million trees have been planted. When finished, though, it would absorb only about 12 megatonnes of carbon per year in 2050. Not nearly enough or soon enough. Could those or other 'climate dollars' be more usefully invested elsewhere?
Just as the G7 signalled combatting wildfires is now a global concern, Canada's governments need to make it a truly national priority. If you want to reduce our carbon footprint then focus on the emissions doing the most damage. That means investing more, now, in expanding our firefighting capacity. Canada has an aging water bomber fleet with insufficient planes. Trained wildfire fighters are lacking, particularly Type 1 firefighters, the first responders.
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Improvements are in the works. PEI is doubling its complement of trained wildfire fighters which, when deployed elsewhere as they were last month, helps in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. More water bombers are on order for Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Ontario. But these will not be ready for several more fire seasons at least. If we are in the midst of a growing wildfire trend, as the past three years attest, then expect more damage and more carbon pollution in the meantime.
Canada has been embroiled in a debate about the cost of reducing carbon emissions from industry, vehicles, and consumers. There's another cost. The cost of climate change impacts on people and communities (185,000 displaced last year) ravaged by more wildfires. Insurance costs from last year's fires were more than $1.2 billion, according to the Insurance Bureau of Canada.
That's the choice. Pay now or pay later. Tackling wildfires is a 'two-fer'. It protects lives and livelihoods. And it helps keep carbon in the ground, not emit it into the atmosphere. It's a way for Canadas to reduce its global carbon footprint in a more meaningful way than one more taxpayer-funded boutique programs spooled out to garner positive headlines about 'acting on climate'.
Raging wildfires across Canada are the clearest case yet of 'see it, believe it' that climate change is real and expensive.
David McLaughlin is a former clerk of the executive council and cabinet secretary in the Manitoba government.
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