LDP Feels Sense of Crisis Ahead of Upper House Election after Crushing Defeat in Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly Polls
The Liberal Democratic Party suffered a crushing defeat in Sunday's Tokyo metropolitan assembly election, which is seen as a bellwether for the future of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishida's Cabinet. Dissatisfaction with prolonged high prices appears to have been directed at the government and ruling parties, leading the LDP to feel a sense of crisis ahead of the House of Councillors election this summer.
'There is no doubt that we are in a very difficult situation. The appeal of our measures to combat rising prices did not resonate with voters,' former World Expo 2025 Minister Shinji Inoue, who serves as chairman of the Federation of Tokyo Metropolitan LDP Branches, said Sunday evening on an internet program.
According to a Yomiuri Shimbun survey conducted after the announcement of the Tokyo assembly election campaign period, the support rate of the Ishiba Cabinet had slightly improved from before the announcement to 24%. Some interpreted this as a certain level of evaluation of the measures taken by Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Shinjiro Koizumi to tackle soaring rice prices. With the crushing defeat, voices within the LDP say that 'Voters may believe that we have not delivered results on measures against rising prices.'
Since becoming a minority government after the House of Representatives election last autumn, the Ishiba Cabinet has been losing support. Ahead of the upcoming upper house election, the LDP campaigned during the Tokyo assembly election with the utmost caution, trying to seize a chance to revive the party's force.
A Tokyo metropolitan assembly election has often served as a leading indicator for national elections that follow. In July 2009, the now-defunct Democratic Party of Japan secured a landslide victory with 54 seats, becoming the largest party in the Tokyo assembly for the first time, which then led to a change of government in the following lower house election held a month later. In 2013, the LDP regained its position as the largest party in the assembly election in June and went on to win the following upper house election in July.
When the campaign for the Tokyo assembly election started on June 13, Ishiba, who is also the LDP president, talked of the provision of a ¥20,000 cash handout per person in the party's campaign pledges for the upcoming upper house election as part of measures to combat rising prices. This policy was scaled back two months ago due to public backlash, but it has now been revived as a key initiative.
'Cash handouts have not been well-received, but we will implement policies that quickly reach those in need,' Ishiba said Saturday at a street speech in Tokyo's Sumida Ward.
Concerned about protest votes against the government, Ishiba refrained from actively making endorsement speeches in Tokyo, limiting himself to two speeches on Saturday.
'Our everyday organizational strength will talk in this election,' a lower house member elected in Tokyo said. The LDP went on the defensive trying to solidify its base and organization for Sunday's election.
The LDP leadership deemed the final stage of the election as 'not bad' based on its own surveys, according to a senior party official, believing that the government's economic measures had taken hold in the minds of Tokyoites. The administration and party dispatched high-profile members such as Koizumi and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi and former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi across Tokyo to boost the campaign.
Even so, they could not overcome the prolonged headwinds and failed to solidify the party's support base. In addition, a political funds scandal involving the Tokyo metropolitan assembly's LDP group in which money from political fundraising parties went unreported — in a situation just like that of LDP factions at the national level — also had a negative impact
Several politics and money scandals surrounding the LDP led its coalition partner Komeito to withhold its endorsement of LDP candidates, a move that also worked against the LDP. Komeito itself suffered a setback with candidates losing for the first time in 36 years, leaving the ruling coalition facing the need to rethink its strategy for the upper house election.
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