Is Edmonton Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch any closer to fixing the defence?
The Edmonton Oilers entered the postseason with more roster questions than any true Stanley Cup contender this spring. Injuries were rife across the roster, ineffective play from veterans was a real concern and the goaltending was a question mark.
One by one, coach Kris Knoblauch found solutions from the available roster players.
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Goaltending was solved by inserting backup Calvin Pickard. Knoblauch did it during the Vancouver Canucks series one year ago, so the transition from Stuart Skinner to Pickard wasn't shocking to anyone. What has been a surprise is the quality of Pickard's performances. He currently owns the net, and Skinner's return date is unknown (although likely if the team continues deep into the playoffs).
Perhaps the biggest concern surrounded how to replace injured defenceman Mattias Ekholm. He's slated to return to the roster at some point this spring, but the team needs to win games without him in the interim.
After the completion of the six-game series against Los Angeles, the questions about how to replace Ekholm remain.
Ekholm is a strong two-way player and the ideal partner for Evan Bouchard, Edmonton's outstanding puck-moving defenceman.
In the first two games of the playoff series versus the Los Angeles Kings, Knoblauch and his staff (the defence is led by coaches Paul Coffey and Mark Stuart) came under heavy criticism for the deployment of the defensive pairings at five-on-five. In Games 1 and 2, the deployment looked like this:
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
Fans were unhappy with the Darnell Nurse and Bouchard pairing due mostly to coverage problems for the tandem. Both men allowed Los Angeles forwards to wander behind them, and the club paid in full during the early portion of the series.
The obvious solution was to move Jake Walman to the Bouchard pairing and check down Nurse to play with Brett Kulak. Instead, the only change Knoblauch made early came when switching out Josh Brown after Game 1 and inserting John Klingberg (the numbers above for the pairing are from a single game).
Once down 2-0 in the series, the coaching staff had some decisions to make. Things weren't working, and something had to give. Here are the pairings for Game 3 and Game 4 combined:
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
The top pairing still had some issues, owing at least in part to facing tougher competition. However, the second and third pairings shone like a diamond. The pairing of Walman and Klingberg has been exceptional. In the pivotal Game 5, the duo scorched Los Angeles 16-4 shots five-on-five with a 94 percent expected goal share in the metric.
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How did it happen? The team's outlets have been tweaked in at least a couple of ways. First, the team is deploying an old-timey strategy in having the centre come down low (with speed) and take a handoff from the defenceman in possession of the puck. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can easily beat the forecheck going full speed, and have the advantage of less traffic once hitting the neutral zone.
Additionally, the passing by defencemen from deep in the zone is more effective because there is often more than one attractive passing option. The Oilers don't have two forwards lingering in the neutral zone in search of a jailbreak pass.
The result is more control, and more consistent breakouts since the start of Game 3. How much have the changes improved the results? Meghan Chayka from Stathletes tracks the evidence, and it was devastating for the Kings in the middle games of the series.
In Game 5, Knoblauch and his staff deployed seven unique pairings that played three or more minutes together. The dizzying changes may also be impacted by the lack of response from Los Angeles, but the results in Game 5 didn't identify a true weak link among the seven pairings:
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
After five games, it appeared the pairings worked and the coverage plus outlet passing issues were solved.
Edmonton won the series, but there are questions about the defence as the team prepares for the Vegas Golden Knights in the second round. The performances were decidedly less impressive than in Games 3 through 5:
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
The most used pairing in the closing game of the series matched what fans were demanding, but both the first and second pairings struggled against a determined Los Angeles squad.
Meanwhile, Nurse-Bouchard had solid numbers during the game (although the actual results were poor). Nurse-Klingberg was effective, giving the coaches another combination to ponder.
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It's difficult to look at a series clinching victory with a negative eye, but the reads and gaps will need to be much better in the next series. As the team sets the lines and pairings for Vegas, there are several things that should be addressed.
Nurse had a high event series with some loose coverage that is reflected by eye and math. When the big defenceman was on the ice at five-on-five during the Kings' series, the Oilers were outscored 9-4. When Nurse was off the ice, the team outscored Los Angeles 11-5. Evan Bouchard had similar totals: 8-3 goals for Edmonton when Bouchard was at rest, outscored 11-7 when Bouchard was on the ice.
Together, the pairing delivered 3-7 goals on the ice at five-on-five. That reflects coverage issues and misreads by the pairing. Without the puck, Nurse and Bouchard have the same weakness (read and react, wandering).
The questions around the defence appear to have gone full circle in one six-game series. The easy answer is placing Ekholm on the Bouchard pairing, and then running the strongest combination of Nurse, Kulak, Walman and Klingberg on the second pair. Ekholm could return from injury at some point during May.
Until then, Knoblauch's ongoing search for what works receives another best-of-seven series to continue the experiments. A good guess has Nurse and Bouchard on separate pairings in Game 1 against the Golden Knights.
(Photo of Darnell Nurse, Kevin Fiala and Evan Bouchard: Perry Nelson / Imagn Images)
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