ExplainSpeaking: The critical importance of Census 2027 for India's economy
Dear Readers,
The Government of India has announced that the next Census will be conducted in two phases over 2026 and 2027. The effective date for which it will provide all the data will be March 1, 2027.
India has undergone a Census once every decade since 1881; regardless of who ruled over the country and any calamity. However, the link was broken when India failed to conduct the Census for 2021 in the wake of the Covid pandemic. It is noteworthy that the delay in India's case — 6 years — is much longer than in most other countries (including India's neighbours such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka).
Explaining the delay, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) spokesperson posted the following on X: 'Covid disrupted all sectors, including education. Around 30 lakh enumerators are needed for the Census and most of them are primary school teachers. Conducting the Census post-Covid could have disrupted primary education immensely.'
A concern for data quality
Most of the focus now is on two politically sensitive issues.
One, the caste census, or the collection of caste data along with all the other data. Two, the possible usage of Census 2027 data for the purposes of delimitation, which is essentially an exercise that will entail rebalancing the state-wise share of Lok Sabha seats based on population. Most of the southern states, which were more effective in population control over the past 50 years, stand to lose electoral representation relative to northern states, which failed to control their population growth as effectively.
At one level, the fact that caste and delimitation are heavily politicised, warn some demographers, may vitiate the quality and credibility of the Census data. This may happen as people attempt to tweak their answers on questions (such as caste and language etc.) in a manner that in their view suits their politics instead of providing an unbiased response capturing the reality.
Regardless, the Census' importance goes far beyond these issues and its data will be of critical importance for the functioning of the Indian economy.
Census' importance for the economy and policymaking
The national Census provides the fundamental statistical basis for all other types of other surveys and analysis in the country. The Census isn't just the complete enumeration of all Indians. Rather it is as complete an image of India as possible as it collects data on age, gender, family status, economic status, unemployment, language, education, disability, migration — the list is pretty long.
In other words, the Census is a reality check for the country — a look in the mirror without which a self-portrait is not possible. In providing all this information for each Indian, the Census not only tells the story of how India changed in the past 10 years — in this case, the past 16 years — but also gives clues to how it might change in the next decade.
The Census forms the basis of all future surveys and policymaking.
Here are a few examples.
1. Inflation control and Interest rates
For instance, how does the Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India know whether to raise interest rates or cut them or to maintain the status quo?
The RBI, of course, bases its decision on the retail inflation rate in the country.
But how does the country know what is the retail inflation rate?
To be sure, retail inflation rate captures the rate at which the general price level in the economy went up from one year to the next. This rate, in turn, is based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and how much it rose over the past year. The CPI is essentially a basket of goods and services that retail consumers 'consume'. The index allocates different weights to different goods and services and then maps how prices of these components move in a weighted fashion. Food articles, for instance, have a weight of 46% in the total index. This is another way of saying that 46% of all the money spent by a common Indian is spent on food items.
But how do we know what weight to allocate to food items while ascertaining the overall inflation rate?
That, in turn, is based on a survey — a consumption survey done by a government agency.
But how does the government agency know whether its modelling of the survey, or the architecture of its survey, truly captures the reality?
It is here that the Census matters because it is the Census that establishes the 'reality' that all other surveys try to capture. The Census provides the base for all surveys and policymaking. A survey is effective if it can capture the reality — the reality as depicted by the Census. Who lives where, how much does he or she earn, are they part of a family, are they migrating for work, where do they live etc.
A Census — say Census 2011 — provides one clear image of India at one specific point in time. That distribution of people — quality of their lives, their economic status, their migration patterns etc. — provides the base for all future surveys such as the consumption survey for government or the many of the market surveys done by private companies trying to figure out whether there is going to be more demand for cars ( and if so, what kind of cars) in rural India in the next 5 to 10 years.
For argument's sake, if over the past 16 years, an average Indian's expenditure on food had fallen to only 30% of his total expenditure then by giving a higher weightage to food articles, India has been overestimating (and overstating) its food inflation as well as its overall inflation. By the same logic, Indian policymakers would have been making the mistake of running a much tighter monetary policy — read maintaining high interest rates — and thus unintentionally holding back India's economic growth.
Food inflation is just one example. There are many other variables for which the Census is absolutely critical. Take for example issues like migration and urbanisation.
2. Migration, Urbanisation and Governance
Migration, for instance, is one of the least understood variables. Often, population projections are based on fertility (birth rate) and mortality (death rate) assumptions. But there is a third variable that can, and often does, change the population of a village, city or state — that's internal migration in the country.
The popular perception is that most of the migration happens from one state to another. But the fact is that inter-state migration is barely 12% of total internal migration in India. Most of India's migration is essentially 'local' — intra-district (62%) and inter-district (26%). Barely 4% of India's total population participates in inter-state migration and this is hugely responsible for India having one of the lowest levels of internal migration in the world.
What's more, most internal migration is between one rural area to another (almost 48%). The second biggest category — and also the fastest growing one — is from one urban to another urban area.
As revealing as these statistics are — the fact is that they are based on 2011 Census data. The truth about India's internal migration might have undergone a complete change since then. Only a nation-wide Census can capture how reality has shifted.
Migration data has wide ranging policy implications — from affecting Budget allocations for rural and urban areas to policies regarding education, employment and social welfare and, as more and more cases of language divide come up, of social cohesion.
A necessary corollary is the impact on urbanisation. There is no clarity on how urbanised India is. Estimates range from 30% to 70%, depending on what definition one chooses for an urban area. Accurate knowledge of urbanisation is critical to India's GDP growth, after all, according to a Niti Aayog estimate, 60% of India's GDP comes from Indian cities, and they account for just 3% of the nation's land.
If more people reside and work in cities, it should ideally lead to a fundamental change in the way Indian cities are governed, both in terms of how they taxes and what services they receive in return.
No alternatives to the Census
As explained above, no matter how good an agency it may be, no survey will be able to capture the reality if it is modelled on outdated Census data. This holds true for both public and private sector surveys. In fact, there is an element of rising costs of accuracy. With each passing year, it becomes more and more costly to get an accurate picture of reality.
Further, while it is true that there is an increasing volume of administrative data (that is, the data collected by different state and Union government departments) on a whole host of variables, from water and electricity availability to education and disability, the fact is that such data is often a very poor and, more worryingly, a very faulty and misleading substitute.
For one, there is a problem of comparability when looking at administrative data from one department to another, and even more so from one state to another. That's because of differences in definition or the way data is collected etc. Not to mention the rather obvious problem: Data collected by the departments (and the officials) who stand to get adversely affected if it shows less than the advertised success is often unreliable. A glaring example of this came out when the latest round of National Family Health Survey in 2020-21 showed that contrary to government's claims that India had become Open Defecation Free, 30% of the households surveyed did not have toilets. That was just a survey, not a Census.
Upshot
The shifting of timelines — as a result of the six year delay — as well as the politicisation of several issues that will be mapped are likely to create problems of analysis and comparison when Census 2027 eventually happens. However, it is also true that with every passing year of delay, India and its policymakers were progressively failing to get a clear picture of India's actual reality. To that extent, this is a welcome development and will provide a critical reset not just for India's economy and its policymakers but also its citizens.
Share you views and queries at udit.misra@expressindia.com
Take care,
Udit
Udit Misra is Deputy Associate Editor. Follow him on Twitter @ieuditmisra ... Read More
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Print
an hour ago
- The Print
India's queer politics isn't about Right vs Left. It's a matter of privilege
For queers on the Left, the very idea defies imagination. We love a good Caitlyn Jenner roast and know that Black Republicans exist because we've attempted to enjoy SNL once or twice, but we draw the line at gay Manuvadis. To be fair, the question holds: The white-picket ideals of conservatism don't really align with technicolour queerness. So, why are some queers Right-wing? In a university hostel room somewhere, a newly minted Left-liberal gay kid has just come across the question and can't quite wrap his head around it. How can you be queer and Right-wing? That's the hottest political question among the Indian queer community. It isn't whether you will vote for Narendra Modi or Rahul Gandhi. It is: How can you be queer and vote for the BJP? The answer is arrived at rather quickly: the Left is nothing if not efficient, at least when it comes to wokeness. As with everything else riddled with problems, the p-word is guilty here, too. When you have caste and class privilege, there are few things to strive for than the right to marry. (Clearly, the feminist movement hasn't managed to truly touch the gays.) But the vast majority of India's urban, upper caste queers—those who deign to leave the closet, at least—straddle a happy middle. My ex-best friend, for example, doesn't know his Right from his Left anymore. He grew up loving religion, reading Amish Tripathi books, and placing his hopes for a squeaky-clean India on the BJP. Now, he knows capitalism sucks and industries are killing the earth, but doesn't quite see himself as a Leftist: He's not nearly fond enough of tote bags. A few months ago, a bike-loving lesbian said she'd vote for the BJP because it might just fix the Delhi roads. But when asked about the larger politics behind that vote, she offered a humble 'I guess I stopped caring about what was happening out there.' To her, all parties are equally bad, but at least the BJP seems to be doing something. This batch of gays and lesbians has it all. They're politically promiscuous, religiously vague, and free to boo either side as and when required. Also read: Is there an Indian way to be gay? Most of us learn about queerness from American TV Being queer in a Trump world If Right-wing gays and transpersons are a walking contradiction for those on the Left, the latter are far too militant for those on the Right. They're disillusioned with the Left's infighting, its insistence on making labels and language the battleground, and how it has strict rules for how to be queer. 'I am conservative because I think the Left often goes too far with polarising gender issues. India's conservatism is more realistic than the Left,' said a 22-year-old social media executive who identifies as gay. A Delhi-based gay man who works in his family business thinks that the queer narrative in Indian Left is based on Western ideas. 'The whole pronouns game, where you can identify as anything… There are a lot of other ways we can handle these situations, but we cannot let the Western narrative control the conversation. These things are highly influenced by geopolitics—they've created a business out of it. They don't want to actually do anything,' he said. They're not entirely wrong about the self-righteousness and militancy of the Left. Even I've been known to run for the hills at the first sight of a janeu. But is queerness inherently Left? 'If you treat queerness as not just about who you love or sleep with, but rather as a political project, then obviously queerness leans more Left. And I don't think that queerness can ever align right, given its fundamental belief in equal rights,' said Anish Gawande, a national spokesperson for the NCP. 'Again, Right and Left are such vague terminologies in a Trump world,' he added. Gawande also reminded me that queerness in India is not necessarily a Right/Left issue as it is in the West. Mohan Bhagwat, for instance, has said that queer individuals are human beings. At the Hiroshima G7 summit in 2020, PM Modi talked about having made a new law to secure trans rights. One can see how some queer people might find space for themselves in the Indian Right wing. It remains a single-plank bridge, though. While the Left seeks to connect the queer struggle with that of caste and religious minorities, the Right sees it as a futile effort. 'If your goal is to cross a river and you stand on two boats instead of staying in one boat, do you think you can cross this river? You'll just fall in the middle,' said the Delhi-based businessman. India's queer politics isn't about a red pill vs blue pill divide. It plays out in vastly different ways across regions and for communities within the community. Perhaps the question we should be asking isn't 'How can someone be queer and Right-wing', but 'How can a queer political identity emerge in India?' Or better yet, does it need to? Views are personal. (Edited by Theres Sudeep)
The Print
an hour ago
- The Print
Kanishka bombing: Canada police finally know who 'Mr X' was but name withheld citing privacy laws
On 23 June 1985, a mid-air bomb explosion on Air India Flight 182 off the coast of Ireland left all 329 people on board dead. En route from Montreal to Mumbai via London, the aircraft had Canadian citizens of Indian origin as the majority of its passengers. On Saturday, RCMP Assistant Commissioner David Teboul, while not identifying 'Mr X', confirmed his death during an event marking 40 years since the bombing, with dozens of relatives of the victims attending the memorial. New Delhi: The Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) has finally uncovered the identity of 'Mr X', a man involved in testing a bomb in Vancouver Island only weeks before the Kanishka bombing, but has not revealed it, citing Canadian privacy laws. For the longest time during the Kanishka bombing probe, investigators kept identifying one of the men behind the testing of the bomb as 'Mr X' because they could not pin down who he was. He reportedly died not very long ago without facing any charges, according to Canadian police. The revelation comes at a time when diplomatic relations between Canada and India have shown signs of recovery. Prime Minister Narendra Modi met his Canadian counterpart, Mark Carney, on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Kananaskis, Canada earlier this month. During the summit, India and Canada 'agreed to take calibrated and constructive steps to restore stability' in their relationship, starting with the 'early return of High Commissioners' to the each other's capitals. Bilateral ties had been under strain since former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused India of killing Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia last year. India had rejected the accusation, calling it 'absurd'. However, soon, there was a pullback in diplomatic ties between the two countries. India then suspended visas for Canadians, and both countries expelled each other's diplomats in a tit-for-tat move. In his address at the memorial Saturday, David Teboul said that after the acquittals of key Kanishka bombing suspects in 2005, investigators had continued to work the case in the hopes of resolving 'loose ends', eventually finding out the identity of the man, who helped test the type of bomb that brought down the AI flight 40 years ago. According to the RCMP, 'Mr X' travelled to Duncan, Vancouver Island, with the Kanishka bombing mastermind, Talwinder Singh Parmar, on 4 June, 1985. The two men joined Inderjit Singh Reyat, an electrician by profession, and went deep into a wooded area to test an improvised explosive device (IED). Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) agents reportedly surveilled the trio after they heard an explosion in the area but mistakenly believed the sound to be coming from a gunshot and could not accuse the three of any wrongdoing. Inderjit Singh Reyat, the only person ever convicted in the bombing, pleaded guilty to aiding in the construction of the bomb that exploded on AI-182 but claimed that he did not know the identity of 'Mr X'. During the trial, Reyat committed perjury, which led to a longer sentence. Reyat has since served his time in prison and is now out of jail. Talwinder Singh Parmar, the alleged mastermind of the bombing and founder of the banned Babbar Khalsa separatist group, was killed in a shootout with Punjab police in 1992. During the memorial, David Teboul noted that while the investigation had continued, 'there was very little realistic chance of seeing the matter go to another trial'. He added that the Kanishka bombing had been the 'largest act of terrorism' in the history of Canada. 'So we, RCMP, have an obligation to memorialise it and pay respect every year,' Teboul told the assembled gathering. A bomb in a suitcase set off mid-air in Air India Flight 182, killing 329 people, 307 passengers and 22 crew members. On board were 268 Canadian citizens, 27 British citizens, and 4 Indian citizens. The majority were of Indian ancestry. Soon after, a second bomb on another Air India flight exploded prematurely at Tokyo's Narita airport, killing two baggage handlers. (Edited by Madhurita Goswami) Also Read: 'Air India ki flight mat lo' — how Canadian neglect led up to Kanishka bombing 38 yrs ago
New Indian Express
an hour ago
- New Indian Express
PM has mastered ‘art of slogans', but offers no solutions, says Rahul Gandhi
NEW DELHI: Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on Saturday said Prime Minister Narendra Modi has mastered the 'art of slogans' but offers no solutions and claimed that India's manufacturing was at a record low despite the 'Make in India' initiative. ''Make in India promised a factory boom. So why is manufacturing at record lows, youth unemployment at record highs, and why have imports from China more than doubled? The PM has mastered the art of slogans, not solutions. Since 2014, manufacturing has fallen to 14 per cent of our economy,' he said in a post on X. Gandhi said Modi has 'no new ideas' and has 'surrendered'. 'Even the much-hyped PLI scheme is now being quietly rolled back,' he alleged. He said India needs a fundamental shift, one that empowers lakhs of producers through honest reforms and financial support. 'We must stop being a market for others. If we don't build here, we'll keep buying from those who do. The clock is ticking,' said the leader of opposition in Lok Sabha. The Congress leader met mobile repair technicians at Nehru Place in the capital and attached a video of the conversation to the post. 'I met Shivam and Saif, both bright, skilled and full of promise - yet denied the opportunity.' Noting that there is a difference between 'Made in India' and 'Assembled in India', he said: 'The truth is stark: we assemble, we import, but we don't build. China profits. China is the world's electronic market. There is no other electronic market anywhere. Assemble as many iPhones as you want, all you are doing is giving money to the big oligopolies of India. Start making iPhones, it's a completely different ball game,' he said. The former Congress chief said to manufacture parts, whether it is a motherboard or 'small pieces', you need a certain level of machining, a certain level of quality, a certain level of understanding of tolerances of working with small components. 'And, at the centre of it, and people don't like it when I say it, is the idea of caste. We need to make this transparent. We need to show exactly how Indian society distributes power,' he said.
