Will Iran's energy grid, oil reserves be Israel's next targets in its bid for regime change?
An oil storage facility in Tehran burns after being hit by Israeli air strikes on June 15. PHOTO: ARASH KHAMOOSHI/NYTIMES
News analysis Will Iran's energy grid, oil reserves be Israel's next targets in its bid for regime change?
LONDON – A few days into the military confrontation, any assessment of the war between Israel and Iran is likely to be tentative.
Yet, even in this early phase, three broad conclusions are emerging.
Iran and Israel are throwing all their arsenals and military capabilities into a fight that both sides consider as crucial to their existence.
As a result, the risk of the operation escalating into much broader destruction remains very real.
And while the casualty toll is rising fast, both sides are keeping their eyes firmly fixed on the only diplomatic actor that matters in this case: the United States.
So, although President Donald Trump continues to resort to meaningless slogans – 'Make the Middle East Great Again', as he put it in his latest public intervention on Truth Social, his favourite social media platform – what the US leader thinks or does remains crucial not only to Israel, but also to Iran.
Israel's operation is vast. The first wave of attacks on Iran involved over 200 combat aircraft striking over a hundred targets, including not only nuclear installations, but also the homes of Iran's military leadership, ballistic missile production and storage sites, and air defences.
The current Israeli daily operations are much smaller. Still, they regularly involve around 50 jets in each wave; in total, over 300 various Iranian targets have been hit in the first three days of fighting.
Still, Israel is far from succeeding in eliminating Iran's nuclear programme, which remains the main objective of its operation.
The Natanz nuclear complex sustained severe damage on the first day of strikes. Its above-ground fuel plant, which produced enriched uranium at 60 per cent levels usually required for nuclear weapons, has been destroyed, a fact confirmed by both the International Atomic Energy Agency – the UN nuclear watchdog – and by satellite photographs.
However, Iran has two additional known fuel enrichment plants, including the largest one located at Natanz, which is underground. The entrances to these facilities have been struck by Israeli jets and Mossad security agents operating inside Iran. The electrical infrastructure supporting the Natanz site was also destroyed.
The sudden loss of power and the vibrations caused by repeated explosions may have damaged the delicate centrifuges required for the enrichment process. But it will take a while for Israel to be certain of this outcome.
And Iran's third enrichment facility at Fordow, which plays a critical role in its nuclear programme, is buried underground at depths of around 90 m. That facility can only be destroyed by the American GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a precision-guided monster weighing 13,600 kg that can only be operated by US bombers.
Israel may be able to destroy the access to this facility, but unless it renders Fordow inoperable, the chance remains that Iran would be able to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for roughly nine nuclear weapons using its current enriched uranium stockpile.
Israel has now achieved complete air control over Iran; not only its jets, but also the various versions of its Heron drones now operating in Iran's skies with impunity.
However, the snag for the Israeli government is that it is under pressure to widen its attacks beyond just the nuclear and military installations, to Iran's wider civilian infrastructure.
When the war began, Israel warned the Iranians that if they retaliate by hitting at Israeli cities, they should expect the Iranian economy to be struck in return.
The Iranians clearly got the message, but they also knew that they stood no chance of persuading Israel to stop its offensive unless they aimed their missiles at the Jewish state's main population centres.
So, while Iran's official media was initially careful to claim that the retaliation against Israel was limited to military targets in the first few days of the war, that pretence was soon dropped.
State-controlled TV is now broadcasting endless clips of Israeli cities under fire, to the accompaniment of marches popular from the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s.
Iran had 'opened gates of hell' on Israel, boasted the June 15 front page of Keyhan, an influential Iranian newspaper. 'We will end the war and Israel simultaneously,' it added.
In reality, around 90 per cent of the approximately 500 missiles Iran fired at Israel since the start of the current confrontation were either successfully intercepted, or caused no damage.
To date, 13 Israelis have been killed in these attacks and a further 400 have been wounded. By any normal yardstick, this is not a large number for a 9.7 million-strong nation.
But for ordinary Israelis, previously accustomed to watching the interception of hostile missiles above their skies as almost a source of entertainment, the casualty tool is already regarded as intolerable.
So the pressure is on the government to expand its strikes and destroy Iran's civilian infrastructure.
Oil and natural gas wells, as well as Iran's energy export facilities to markets such as China – which go out of Kharg Island and the port of Bandar Abbas – are unlikely to be targeted by Israel at this stage, because this would provoke worldwide mayhem in energy markets and infuriate the US.
But Iran's electricity grid as well as strategic oil reserves are sure to be destroyed in the days to come.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long believed that Iran's nuclear quest can only be terminated through regime change – the removal of the country's current rulers.
American sources have revealed that soon after the current fighting began, US President Donald Trump rejected a plan by Israel to kill Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
However, Mr Netanyahu may now seek regime change through different means. The Iranian economy is already tottering, weakened by decades of sanctions and gross mismanagement.
He may well calculate that if ordinary Iranians are deprived of electricity and fuel, they may well come into the streets and overthrow their current rulers.
Asked in a US media interview on June 15 if regime change was part of Israel's military effort, Mr Netanyahu replied: 'That could certainly be the result because the Iranian regime is very weak.'
Yet, the record of previous efforts to hasten the overthrow of a government indicates that nobody can predict what triggers revolutions, and their outcomes are seldom those intended.
Besides, President Trump still believes that after a bout of fighting, the current Iranian regime will be persuaded to return to the negotiating table and agree to give up its nuclear aspirations.
That is just about as unrealistic as Prime Minister Netanyahu's hope for regime change.
Still, the fact that the US may be impatient to stop the war dominates the calculations of both Iran and Israel.
Israel's current objective is to degrade Iran's military capabilities as much as possible in the shortest period, and perhaps goad Iran into attacking US installations throughout the Middle East, a step that will bring the US into the fray.
Meanwhile, Iran's objective is to resist for as long as needed until President Trump starts putting pressure on Israel to stop.
Mr Trump certainly relishes his pivotal role in this conflict. Even though none of what is happening now will ever 'Make the Middle East Great Again.'
Jonathan Eyal is based in London and Brussels and writes on global political and security matters.
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