Sterling set for weekly loss as Middle East conflict overshadows domestic data
Sterling gained slightly against the dollar on Friday but was set for a loss on the week as uncertainty over the Israel-Iran conflict fuelled demand for traditional safe havens such as the greenback.
Weak UK retail data earlier in the session and the Bank of England's decision on Thursday to keep rates unchanged had little effect on the pound.
Sterling was 0.2% higher at $1.3495 but eased 0.6% against the dollar on the week, after two consecutive weeks of gains.
The dollar was set for its biggest weekly rise in more than a month on Friday.
The BoE said it was monitoring risks from a weaker labour market and higher energy prices on the back of the conflict as it held interest rates at 4.25% as expected on Thursday, sending the pound down briefly against the U.S. dollar.
"The pound was only lightly touched by a consensus Bank of England hold yesterday," ING FX Strategist Francesco Pesole wrote in a note to clients.
"Yesterday's 6-3 vote split for a cut can be interpreted marginally on the dovish side and is allowing markets to reinforce their conviction call on an August cut."
Markets now priced in a near-60% chance for a quarter-point cut at the BoE's next policy meeting.
The euro was marginally up to 85.43 pence on Friday, set for its second week of gains in a row.
Sterling briefly pared some earlier gains against the U.S. dollar after weak British retail sales data, which saw volumes recording their sharpest drop since December 2023 last month, as demand fell after shoppers splurged on food, summer clothes and home improvements the month before.
"Retail sales in May brought significant payback" after a "hard to explain" strength in the previous four months, Allan Monks, chief U.K. economist at J.P. Morgan, said.
The figures came alongside government borrowing figures which showed a slightly larger than expected budget deficit of 17.7 billion pounds ($23.88 billion) for May.
Britain's economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace in the first quarter of 2025 but shrank in April, as a property tax break ended and U.S. tariffs started to sting.
The BoE forecasts overall growth of 1% for 2025.
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Iran Stands Alone Against Trump and Israel, Stripped of Allies
(Bloomberg) -- Iran's leaders are discovering they're on their own against the US and Israel, without the network of proxies and allies that allowed them to project power in the Middle East and beyond. Bezos Wedding Draws Protests, Soul-Searching Over Tourism in Venice One Architect's Quest to Save Mumbai's Heritage From Disappearing JFK AirTrain Cuts Fares 50% This Summer to Lure Riders Off Roads NYC Congestion Toll Cuts Manhattan Gridlock by 25%, RPA Reports As the Islamic Republic confronts its most perilous moment in decades following the bombing of its nuclear facilities ordered by US President Donald Trump, Russia and China are sitting on the sidelines and offering only rhetorical support. Militia groups Iran has armed and funded for years are refusing or unable to enter the fight in support of their patron. After decades of being stuck in a game of fragile detente, the entire geopolitical order of the Middle East is being redone. The Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel was only the beginning. It led to multiple conflicts and tested decades-long alliances. It offered Trump, on his return to power this year, a chance to do what no president before him had dared by attacking Iran so aggressively and directly. Since Israel started strikes on Iran on June 13, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken of goals beyond neutering Tehran's nuclear threat, even hinting at regime change. But the risk is that an isolated Iran could become more unpredictable with its once-steadfast allies keeping their distance. 'As Iran faces its most critical military test in decades, further tangible assistance from either Moscow or Beijing remains unlikely,' said Bloomberg Economics analysts including Adam Farrar and Dina Esfandiary. 'While both maintain bilateral strategic partnerships with Tehran, neither Russia nor China is a formal military ally, and neither is likely to provide significant military or economic aid due to their own limitations and broader strategic considerations.' Iran isn't getting any support, either, from the BRICS grouping of emerging markets that purports to want a new global order that's not dominated by Western nations. The organization — set up by Brazil, Russia, India and China and which Iran joined in early 2024 — has been silent over Israel and the US's attacks on the Islamic Republic. Iran signed a strategic cooperation treaty with Russia in January and it was a vital source of combat drones early in President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine. However, Russian officials have made clear the pact includes no mutual-defense obligations and that Moscow has no intention of supplying Iran with weapons, even as they say Tehran hasn't asked for any. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters in Turkey on Sunday he plans to travel to Moscow to discuss the situation with Putin on Monday. He can expect warm words and little practical support. That's a far cry from 2015, when Russia joined Iran in sending forces to Syria to save the regime of President Bashar Al-Assad, which was eventually toppled by rebels last year. Moscow risks losing another key ally in the Middle East if the government in Tehran led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei falls. Yet while the Kremlin has condemned the Israeli and US attacks, Putin is distracted and stretched — militarily and economically — by his war in Ukraine. China, too, 'strongly' condemned the US strikes as a breach of international law. But it hasn't offered assistance to Iran, which sells some 90% of its oil exports to Beijing. Iran's Gulf neighbors urged restraint and warned of potentially devastating implications for the region if Iran retaliates against US assets in the Middle East. Nations such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates spent months trying to use their geopolitical and economic heft to bolster nuclear talks between the Americans and Iran. In the end, the talks have been overtaken by military power. Iran's proxy militant groups are mostly absent too. Hezbollah in Lebanon, hitherto the most potent member of Tehran's 'axis of resistance' was pummeled by Israeli forces last year, much as Hamas was. Israeli strikes on Assad's military in Syria, meanwhile, played a part in his government's collapse. Hezbollah still poses a threat and on Sunday the US ordered family members and non-emergency government personnel to leave Lebanon. Still, the group's not threatened to back Iran by firing on Israel, as it did right after Hamas' attack in 2023. The Houthis in Yemen are an exception and hours about the US strikes on Iran, they issued fresh threats against US commercial and naval ships. Yet they risk another American bombardment like that one Trump ordered before a truce with the group in May. The Europeans, meanwhile, are increasingly irrelevant, in terms of swaying Trump and Israel, and Tehran. The UK, France and Germany have historically held an important role in the Middle East. They represented the dominant economies in Europe. The first two were colonial powers in the region and in the case of Germany, given its Nazi past, there was a strong pro-Israel voice. Both the UK and France have had to handle a vocal voter constituency that was pro Palestinian and complicated their messaging. That was not always an easy needle to thread. The current UK government is led by Labour, whose legacy was damaged by Tony Blair's decision to join US President George W. Bush in his invasion of Iraq in 2003. 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The Strait Of Consequences: World Braces For Potential Energy Shock
ANKARA, TURKIYE - JUNE 17: An infographic titled "Strait of Hormuz" created in Ankara, Turkiye on ... More June 17, 2025. Connects oil and LNG production in the Middle East to global markets via the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. (Photo by Murat Usubali/Anadolu via Getty Images) There are several important energy chokepoints around the world, but none is more significant and vulnerable than the Strait of Hormuz. Now, following the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities on Saturday, the Iranian Parliament has reportedly voted to close this important energy transit chokepoint. Such a move could severely disrupt the world's energy markets. While the final decision still rests with Iran's Supreme National Security Council--and Iran has failed to follow through on previous threats to close the Strait--the vote signals intent to weaponize one of the world's most economically sensitive maritime corridors. If carried out, the consequences would be swift, severe, and global. Let's take a closer look at how we got here—and why the stakes are so high. Background On June 21, the United States launched coordinated airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. The strikes marked the most serious U.S.–Iran escalation in over a decade. The campaign featured B-2 stealth bombers and submarine-launched Tomahawk missiles. In his remarks following the strike, President Trump struck a conciliatory tone, stating, 'Now is the time for peace.' Iran, unsurprisingly, interpreted it differently. Within hours, the Iranian parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz—a move the U.S. would certainly interpret as a major escalation. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News, "If they do that, it will be another terrible mistake. It's economic suicide for them if they do it. And we retain options to deal with that, but other countries should be looking at that as well. It would hurt other countries' economies a lot worse than ours." Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters The accompanying picture illustrates why the Strait of Hormuz is so vital. At just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point--and significantly bordered by Iran--the Strait of Hormuz handles the transit of nearly 20% of global oil supply. But that's only part of the story. It is also a critical artery for liquefied natural gas (LNG) transit. Many important energy-producing countries rely on the Strait of Hormuz to get these products to market. There are three major global LNG producers, each with about 20% of the global market: The U.S., Qatar, and Australia. Qatar ships around 77 million metric tons of LNG annually, most of it passing through the Strait. Its customers include energy-hungry economies such as Japan, South Korea, China, and India, as well as parts of Europe. If Qatar is cut off, those nations lose part of their energy supply almost overnight. And LNG isn't as fungible as oil. While oil can be rerouted and drawn from strategic reserves, LNG infrastructure is far more rigid. Ships must be able to dock at specially equipped terminals, and production and liquefaction aren't easily shifted. The LNG market is fragile, and supply shocks can ripple fast and violently. Consequences of a Closure If Iran follows through with closing the Strait of Hormuz, the impact on global energy markets would be immediate and far-reaching. Energy prices would spike across the board. Oil could surge past $90 per barrel, and LNG spot prices—particularly in Asia and Europe—could return to levels not seen since 2022. For countries that rely heavily on imported natural gas, the consequences would be renewed inflation, worsening energy insecurity, and even the possibility of fuel rationing as winter approaches. Shipping and insurance markets would be thrown into disarray. Tanker traffic through the Persian Gulf would grind to a halt. Maritime insurers may suspend coverage for vessels transiting the Strait or demand prohibitively high war-risk premiums. Some shipping companies would avoid the region altogether, forcing longer routes and tighter global shipping capacity—raising costs not just for energy, but for commodities and consumer goods across the board. Strategic petroleum and gas reserves would likely be tapped as immediate substitutes. Countries like Japan, South Korea, and India—heavily dependent on Persian Gulf energy flows—would be among the first to draw from their stockpiles. But those reserves are limited, and a prolonged closure of the Strait would quickly strain their ability to buffer continued supply disruptions. Broader economic consequences would follow. As energy prices rise, so do input costs for key sectors like transportation, chemicals, and heavy manufacturing. Inflation would reaccelerate globally, putting renewed pressure on central banks and undermining recent progress in stabilizing prices. Some emerging economies, which lack the finances to subsidize rising energy costs, would be hit hardest, but developed economies would feel the squeeze too. Finally, a sustained disruption would accelerate the global energy realignment already underway. Policymakers would move quickly to diversify energy sources—fast-tracking LNG terminals, expanding storage capacity, and increasing imports from more stable suppliers like the U.S. It would also strengthen the case for more long-term investments in nuclear power and renewables, both of which offer insulation from the geopolitical volatility that continues to define fossil fuel markets. A Risky Game Closing the Strait would also damage Iran's own economy, which relies heavily on maritime exports. But history shows that governments under pressure don't always act rationally—especially when nationalism and survival are in play. Tehran may view the closure as a way to rally domestic support, push back against the West, or extract concessions in future negotiations. But it is a high-stakes move with no easy exit. The U.S. has made clear that such an act would be seen as hostile—and not just by Washington. Many of the world's major economies have a vested interest in keeping the Strait open, and a multinational response is more than likely. Bottom Line The world is watching closely. Energy companies are reviewing contingency plans, and governments are dusting off emergency protocols. Even in the absence of direct military escalation, the growing geopolitical risk is already being priced into oil and LNG futures. But it's worth noting that the Strait of Hormuz has never been fully closed in modern history—not even during periods of intense regional conflict. The closest call came during the Iran–Iraq War of the 1980s, particularly during the 'Tanker War,' when both countries targeted commercial shipping and laid mines throughout the Persian Gulf. Despite the violence, the Strait remained open—albeit under heavy military escort and with soaring insurance costs. Iran has issued similar threats before—most notably in 2011–2012 and again in 2019—in response to sanctions and military pressure. In each case, the threat alone was enough to shake global energy markets, even without an actual blockade. This time may be no different. But markets are rightly on edge, because the Strait of Hormuz isn't just a shipping lane—it's a pressure point for the entire global economy. And right now, that pressure is building.
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The success or failure of this launch could significantly impact not only Tesla's valuation but also broader market sentiment toward autonomous driving technology and artificial intelligence applications. Competitors in the autonomous vehicle space, traditional automakers investing in self-driving technology, and companies developing supporting infrastructure could see notable volatility based on Tesla's performance. Powell's Dual Commentary Fed Chair Jerome Powell's scheduled speeches on Tuesday at 10am and Wednesday at 10am create back-to-back opportunities for market-moving commentary on monetary policy and economic assessment. Following last week's Fed decision that maintained current rates amid Middle East tensions, Powell's remarks will be closely analyzed for insights into how geopolitical developments might influence future policy considerations. The Tuesday speech coincides exactly with the Consumer Confidence report release, creating potential for amplified market reactions if Powell's commentary aligns with or contradicts household sentiment data. Wednesday's remarks come alongside new home sales data, providing context for the Fed's view on housing market conditions and their broader economic implications. With energy prices remaining elevated due to Middle East tensions and key inflation data arriving Friday, Powell's assessment of price stability risks could significantly influence rate-sensitive sectors including technology, utilities, and financials. Any evolution in the Fed's thinking about the balance between geopolitical risks and domestic economic conditions could trigger substantial sector rotation. Economic Growth and Consumer Health This week delivers a comprehensive assessment of economic momentum through multiple critical indicators spanning business activity, consumer sentiment, and growth measurements. Monday's Manufacturing and Services PMI readings at 9:45am will provide timely insights into business conditions across major economic sectors, particularly important given ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Tuesday's Consumer Confidence report at 10am will reveal how recent Middle East tensions and market volatility are affecting household sentiment and spending intentions. Thursday brings the first quarter GDP revision at 8:30am alongside May durable goods orders, offering perspective on both historical growth performance and current business investment trends. The convergence of these indicators creates potential for significant market movements if data points collectively suggest strengthening or weakening economic conditions. Consumer discretionary companies and cyclical sectors could experience heightened volatility based on confidence readings, while industrial and manufacturing firms may react strongly to business activity and investment data. Housing Market Reality Check Monday and Wednesday bring back-to-back housing market assessments with existing home sales at 10am followed by new home sales at 10am on Wednesday. These reports will provide crucial insights into residential real estate activity amid elevated mortgage rates and ongoing economic uncertainties. The existing home sales data reflects completed transactions from recent weeks, offering perspective on buyer behavior during the period of escalating Middle East tensions. Wednesday's new home sales figures will gauge demand for newly constructed properties, particularly important for assessing builder confidence and future construction activity. Housing sector companies, mortgage lenders, and home improvement retailers could see notable reactions based on these results. The timing of Powell's Wednesday speech alongside new home sales creates potential for Federal Reserve commentary to either reinforce or contradict housing market signals. With housing traditionally serving as a leading economic indicator, these reports take on added significance for broader market sentiment regarding economic resilience and consumer financial health. Inflation Crescendo and Corporate Earnings Friday's Core PCE Price Index at 8:30am represents the week's most consequential economic release, providing the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure amid ongoing energy price volatility from Middle East tensions. Both month-over-month and year-over-year readings will be scrutinized for evidence of price pressure moderation or acceleration, particularly important given recent oil price surges. The week's earnings calendar features three major industrial companies: FedEx (FDX) reporting Tuesday, Micron Technology (MU) on Wednesday, and Nike (NKE) on Thursday. These reports will provide diverse perspectives on global logistics, semiconductor demand, and consumer spending patterns respectively. Management commentary on supply chain conditions, pricing power, and international operations will be particularly relevant given ongoing geopolitical developments. The combination of critical inflation data and earnings from major multinational corporations creates potential for significant market reactions if results suggest changing business conditions or cost pressures affecting corporate profitability. Best of luck this week and don't forget to check out my daily options article. On the date of publication, Gavin McMaster did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
