Manitoba trails provincial peers in 2024 GDP growth
Manitoba's GDP growth lagged behind all other Canadian provinces in 2024.
The keystone province logged a 1.1 per cent increase in its gross domestic product, falling short of the 1.6 per cent national average. Ontario and British Columbia were not much better, clocking rates of 1.2 per cent each.
'It's not surprising that … Manitoba was a bit below the national average,' said Fletcher Baragar, a University of Manitoba economics professor.
Typically, Manitoba falls behind when the economy is doing well and takes a lead when the economy is struggling. It's because the provincial economy is diverse, Baragar said.
However, Manitoba taking last place is unusual, Baragar added, pointing to revenue declines at Manitoba Hydro and in agriculture.
Statistics Canada released its GDP report Thursday. It circled 'utilities' as the largest negative impact on Manitoba's gross domestic product in 2024.
Hydro posted a consolidated net loss of $157 million in its 2023-24 fiscal year. It cited lower net exports due to drought, more expensive power imports and higher operating costs. Weather also affected agriculture outputs, as did price easing, Baragar noted.
Provinces with higher GDP growth — such as Alberta at 2.7 per cent — had an oil or real estate boom, Baragar said.
Manitoba's agriculture GDP dropped 1.3 per cent year-over-year.
Ryan Kuffner, Economic Development Winnipeg president, said he expects revenues in both agriculture and at Hydro to bounce back. 'Overall, Manitoba didn't do too badly.'
Economic Development Winnipeg's senior economist didn't flag 'significant concerns' of Manitoba falling behind other provinces.
There's potential to grow the local GDP by leaning into critical minerals, diversifying markets and ensuring Manitoba has shovel-ready land for development, Kuffner said. 'The province is working on a new economic development strategy that I think will be key.'
He was echoed by Loren Remillard, president of the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce.
'We need a concerted focus around economic development,' Remillard said. 'The economic horse is not getting the attention it needs, while the social cart is getting heavier and heavier.'
(He was referencing Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew's campaign pitch of an economic horse leading the social cart.)
Remillard called for a 'whole of government commitment' to prioritize economic growth. Lowering interprovincial trade barriers, investing in artificial intelligence and bolstering trade infrastructure are necessary, he added.
The provincial government launched a public survey for input on its economic development strategy last week. A report will likely be out within the year, Minister of Economic Development Jamie Moses confirmed.
'That strategy, one of the primary focuses of it is to grow our GDP,' he said.
He's been consulting with business leaders over the past months. Regarding Manitoba's slower GDP, Moses said government continues to invest in building the economy.
Manitoba had the lowest inflation rate among provinces last year and the second-lowest unemployment rate. A new gold mine in Lynn Lake and government investments in businesses like bus maker NFI Group in Winnipeg will provide hundreds of jobs, Moses added.
The recent GDP data show the New Democrats have been 'sloppy' with the economy, said Lauren Stone, finance critic for the Progressive Conservatives.
'The former PC government laid the groundwork for growth,' she said. 'NDP policies have chased those investors away and killed Manitoba's momentum.'
Manitoba had the highest inflation rate among provinces in February and March, she flagged. (Manitoba's rate increased after the province's gas tax pause ended.)
Its manufacturing sector saw GDP growth last year, unlike Saskatchewan and Alberta, among other provinces. It's 'encouraging,' Baragar said.
He predicts Canada, and Manitoba, will experience less GDP growth in 2025, due to ongoing trade wars. Locally, dry weather might further strain Hydro and agriculture revenue, Baragar said.
Manitoba's GDP growth in 2025 may be better than the Canadian average, he added. The province logged GDP growth of 1.9 per cent in 2023.
gabrielle.piche@winnipegfreepress.com
Gabrielle PichéReporter
Gabrielle Piché reports on business for the Free Press. She interned at the Free Press and worked for its sister outlet, Canstar Community News, before entering the business beat in 2021. Read more about Gabrielle.
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