The NFL award winners have been announced, and here's one voter explaining his ballot
Some of my choices were consistent with the majority of voters. Others were quite different. I'll try to explain my thought process.
MVP
Winner: Bills quarterback Josh Allen
My ballot: Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Saquon Barkley, Sam Darnold
Tough call between Allen and Jackson, who were 1 and 1A. Jackson had better numbers, but I chose Allen because he also had phenomenal stats, led his team to a better record and higher playoff seed than Jackson, and had far less help on offense, with a new, mostly unproven supporting cast.
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The only questionable decision is leaving Joe Burrow, who finished third, off my ballot. Burrow had a huge year stat-wise, and it's not his fault that the Bengals' defense stunk. But I need more than fantasy stats for an MVP. I value winning for this award, and Burrow went 9-8 and missed the playoffs. It's a head-scratcher that Darnold, a big part of the Vikings' 14-3 record with great stats to match, finished 10th in voting.
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Bills quarterback Josh Allen led his team to a better record and higher playoff seed than the Ravens' Lamar Jackson, and had far less help on offense.
David J. Phillip/Associated Press
Offensive Player of the Year
Winner: Eagles running back Saquon Barkley
My ballot: Barkley, Ja'Marr Chase, Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, Kyren Williams
Easy choice, even with Chase, Henry, and others compiling historic seasons. I generally value quarterbacks for MVP, and try to award OPOY to non-QBs.
Defensive Player of the Year
Winner: Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain
My ballot: T.J. Watt, Andrew Van Ginkel, Trey Hendrickson, Zaire Franklin, Nick Bonitto
This was by far the toughest vote, as there was no defender who stood out above the rest. I place the most value on impact plays — sacks, interceptions, forced fumbles, touchdowns, tackles for loss, and passes defended. Then I blend in advanced analytics from NFL Pro (which gives me access to some, but not all, Next Gen Stats), Pro-Football-Reference, and a paid service called OptaStats to make my final choices. The AP doesn't provide stats, so that's what I worked with.
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I landed on Watt, as he finished top 10 in sacks (11.5), led the NFL with six forced fumbles, tied for second with four turnovers caused by his pressure, and is most often the main focus of every offense's game plan. But I don't love the pick, and could have been convinced to vote for Hendrickson, who led the NFL with 17.5 sacks and 46 'quick pressures,' or Van Ginkel, who filled up the stat sheet with 11.5 sacks, two pick-sixes, and a forced fumble.
Apparently, I missed the memo on Surtain. Not only did I leave him off my ballot, I was the only voter out of 50 who didn't have him on the All-Pro first team (I put him second team behind Derek Stingley and Denzel Ward, who led the NFL with 19 passes defended).
Surtain might be the best cornerback in the NFL, and had a fantastic season, with four interceptions, a pick-six, two touchdowns allowed, 11 passes defended, and a 59.1 passer rating allowed, according to NFL Pro. I probably should have switched Surtain and Ward on the All-Pro ballot. But that is not a résumé that screams DPOY.
Only two other cornerbacks have won DPOY since Deion Sanders did in 1994, and it's because they were head and shoulders above everyone else. Charles Woodson in 2009 led the NFL with nine interceptions and three pick-sixes, plus four forced fumbles, 18 passes defended, and two sacks. Stephon Gilmore in 2019 led the NFL with six interceptions and 20 passes defended, and finished second with two pick-sixes. Surtain's résumé doesn't come close to either.
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Surtain locked down a lot of receivers this year, and probably would have compiled even better stats had opponents not shied from him (56 targets ranked 76th in the league, per NFL Pro). But I don't understand why he was such an overwhelming pick, and it feels like it was based more off reputation.
I need more than reputation to vote for DPOY — I need cold, hard stats. Sanders in the '90s was also the NFL's best cornerback who was avoided by opposing quarterbacks, yet he only won DPOY once, in a year in which he recorded three pick-sixes. Surtain's teammate, Bonitto, had the better résumé, with 13.5 sacks, two forced fumbles, and two touchdowns.
I'm also surprised I had the only ballot to include Franklin, who filled up the stat sheet — he led the NFL with 173 tackles, plus two interceptions, 3.5 sacks, five forced fumbles, and six passes defended. When Ray Lewis won DPOY in 2000, he had 137 tackles, two interceptions, three sacks, and no forced fumbles.
Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain was named Defensive Player of the Year, but was it based on reputation?
Adrian Kraus/Associated Press
Coach of the Year
Winner: Kevin O'Connell, Vikings
My ballot: Andy Reid, Dan Campbell, O'Connell, Dan Quinn, Jim Harbaugh
So many worthy choices. And O'Connell was outstanding, in resurrecting Darnold's career and in leading the Vikings to a 14-3 record with a journeyman quarterback.
But it is a joke that Reid, who has a .730 win percentage, five Super Bowl appearances, and three titles with the Chiefs, has never won Coach of the Year in 12 seasons in Kansas City. Reid will go down as one of the best ever, and could secure the all-time wins record, yet has won the award just once, in 2002 with the Eagles.
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Reid deserved it this year. The Chiefs hardly had the best roster, particularly on offense. Yet they went 11-0 in one-score games, and finished with a league-best 15-2 record (15-1 before they benched everyone in Week 18) and the AFC's No. 1 playoff seed. That's coaching at its finest.
Assistant Coach of the Year
Winner: Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson
My ballot: Joe Brady, Johnson, Brian Flores, Steve Spagnuolo, Arthur Smith
Johnson is a worthy choice, guiding the Lions to the No. 1 scoring offense. But I was more impressed with Brady, who in his first full year as offensive coordinator helped Josh Allen cut his interceptions from 18 to six, while leading the Bills to the second-most points in the Allen era (30.9 per game).
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Winner: Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels
My ballot: Daniels, Brian Thomas, Brock Bowers, Bo Nix, Bucky Irving
The easiest vote on the ballot.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Winner: Rams defensive end/outside linebacker Jared Verse
My ballot: Calen Bullock, Verse, Braden Fiske, Edgerrin Cooper, Mike Sainristil
I got a lot of flak for being the only person to vote for Bullock, who finished eighth. My question would be, what were the other voters watching?
Bullock, the Texans' third-round safety out of Southern Cal, was outstanding. He led all rookies, and finished sixth in the NFL, with five interceptions. According to NFL Pro, Bullock allowed an opponent's passer rating of 39.7 — 11 catches on 28 targets for 139 yards and two touchdowns allowed. He played in 17 games and started 13. He made a play on the ball on 39.3 percent of targets, the highest rate of any player with 150 coverage snaps (Bullock had 577). And the analytics loved Bullock — he finished third among qualifying defensive backs with a minus-18.6 'completion rate over expected,' and eighth with a minus-21.8 in 'Coverage Expected Points Added.'
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Verse had a terrific season, and I voted him second. He finished seventh in pressure rate (16.8 percent) and 'quick pressures' (27), and tied for second with four turnovers off pressure. But pressure can be a little overrated without context — did it result in a sack or turnover, or was the pass still completed? — and Verse's 4.5 sacks were a little light in my view.
Voters appeared to miss the boat on Texans safety Calen Bullock.
Ashely Landis/Associated Press
Comeback Player of the Year
Winner: Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow
My ballot: Sam Darnold, Burrow, Damar Hamlin, Christian Gonzalez, Kyler Murray
After Joe Flacco beat out Hamlin last year, the AP tried to clarify that this award is meant 'to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season.'
That last part, 'other circumstances,' is impossibly vague. And the AP later confirmed that it wouldn't reject votes for Darnold or similar players. So I was one of eight to vote for Darnold, who was one of the best stories of the season.
I heard this criticism a lot:
What did Darnold come back from, stinking?
Yes, that's right. He came back from stinking — 'other circumstances,' in my view. He was a forgotten man entering 2024, and had an awesome season.
What did Burrow come back from —
Ben Volin can be reached at
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