Tariff Pain Is Contagious
Welcome back to The Forecast from Bloomberg Weekend, where we help you think about the future — from next week to next decade.
This week we're looking ahead to IMF-World Bank week. Plus, US startup funding is retreating back to the coasts, AI bosses are joining the Zoom meeting, and box office sales are getting harder to predict.
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Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
IMF's Georgieva Warns of Broader Risks From US Strikes on Iran
(Bloomberg) -- International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the US strikes on Iran could potentially have broader impacts beyond energy channels, as global uncertainty escalates. Bezos Wedding Draws Protests, Soul-Searching Over Tourism in Venice One Architect's Quest to Save Mumbai's Heritage From Disappearing NYC Congestion Toll Cuts Manhattan Gridlock by 25%, RPA Reports 'We are looking at this as another source of uncertainty in what has been a highly uncertain environment,' said Georgieva in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Monday. The biggest shock so far has been seen in energy prices, which the IMF is watching closely, but 'there could be secondary and tertiary impacts. Let's say there is more turbulence that goes into hitting growth prospects in large economies — then you have a trigger impact of downward revisions in prospects for global growth.' Global benchmark Brent surged as much as 5.7% to $81.40 a barrel early in Asia Monday, before paring much of that gain in heavy trading. The IMF already downgraded its global growth prospects for this year in April, when it warned that the US-led world trade 'reboot' would slow growth. Georgieva said the first two quarters this year have shown that trend holding, and while the world will likely avoid a recession there's also higher uncertainty, which has a tendency to hold down growth prospects. The world is bracing for Iran's response after unprecedented US airstrikes on the country's nuclear facilities set traders and governments worldwide on edge. President Donald Trump's decision to deploy bunker-busting bombs to hit sites in Iran pushed the Middle East into uncharted territory and raised geopolitical risks at a time when the world economy was already facing severe uncertainty over trade tensions. More immediately, Georgieva said the IMF is looking particularly at how the unfolding conflict will impact oil and gas risk premia. In the oil market, options volumes are spiking, and the futures curve has shifted to reflect tensions about tighter near-term supplies. 'Let's see how events will develop,' Georgieva said, adding that she's watching whether there may be disruptions to energy supply delivery routes or spillovers to other countries. 'I pray no.' As for the US economy itself, the IMF chief said she sees disinflation continuing, although the country is not in a state where the Federal Reserve feels comfortable cutting rates right now. 'What we expect toward the end of the year is possibly for the Fed to apply judgment that the time may have come for some adjustment in interest rates downwards,' said Georgieva. She pointed to strength in the US labor market and solid pay gains helping consumers. At the same time she warned that the more volatility there is, the worse the situation is for businesses. 'When there is uncertainty, what happens? Investors don't invest, consumers don't consume, and that holds growth prospects down,' she said. Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags Is Mark Cuban the Loudmouth Billionaire that Democrats Need for 2028? Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros The US Has More Copper Than China But No Way to Refine All of It Can 'MAMUWT' Be to Musk What 'TACO' Is to Trump? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
AI doesn't know me. Good, let's keep it that way.
The curtain of anonymity can produce amusing results. But there is a downside in the age of AI. (Photo illustration by Alexander Castro/Rhode Island Current) My name is a catfish. Or, so I've been told. When you hear the name Jamie Jung, you might wonder if the face behind this article is a Korean girl or the great-grandson of Swiss psychiatrist Carl Jung. A name so mysterious, perhaps even AI would struggle to decipher my identity in my job application. When the pandemic pivoted classrooms to Zoom, I hid behind a faceless black square, only two words revealing my name.. When calling attendance, many of my teachers would pronounce my last name with a German J as 'Yoong' or refer to me with the pronouns 'he' or 'him.' Others would sound my name out phonetically 'Jung' and refer to me as 'she' or 'her.' As much as I enjoyed the curtain of anonymity, I have come to recognize there is a downside. Companies such as Microsoft and Amazon delegate resume screening to AI tools in order to sift through countless applications from job-seekers. AI tools continue to evolve but there should be more attention on the flaws in algorithmic analysis, such as oversimplification and evaluation bias. In 2014, Amazon attempted to automate its hiring process by building a computer program that would review applicants' resumes and spit out a list of the top candidates. The computers were trained to assess applicants by observing resumes submitted to the company over a 10-year period. The problem? A majority of the applicants were men, which unintentionally taught the algorithm that male candidates were superior. The impact of algorithmic bias is not limited to gender. A 2024 study from the University of Washington reported computer models favored white-associated names in 85.1% of cases and female-associated names in only 11.1% of cases. In 2017, the University of Toronto released a study that revealed applicants with Asian names had a 28% reduced likelihood of receiving interviews compared to applicants with Anglo names. This pattern of discrimination even within a recruitment process solely managed by humans establishes a foundation already tainted with bias. Despite the growing diversity of the American workforce, the lack of leadership opportunities given to underrepresented communities serves as evidence of the lasting effects of systemic discrimination. According to the National Library of Medicine, although 74% of health care professionals are women, only 33% of management positions were filled by women. Similarly, while Black employees comprise 14% of all U.S. employees, only 7% of managers are Black. When you hear the name Jamie Jung, you might wonder if the face behind this article is a Korean girl or the great-grandson of Swiss psychiatrist Carl Jung. AI has the potential to revolutionize the workplace. Automating monotonous tasks within the hiring process allows employees to maximize productivity, and many human resource managers have recognized these benefits. But by analyzing existing demographics of the workforce, algorithms can deduce that ''top'' applicants who fit the standard are white men. As long as this foundation remains skewed, AI will continue to exclude talented applicants based on an outdated algorithm. A survey by CareerBuilder states 55% of HR managers say AI will become a regular part of HR in the next five years. Although the prospects of an efficient recruitment process are appealing, managers must evaluate the current state of their workforce before integrating AI algorithms in order to provide a fair opportunity for all applicants. By prioritizing equal representation even before implementing AI, companies will be able to utilize algorithms with less worries about bias. The innovation of AI begins with human reflection and revision. AI assumes that I am only what my name allows me to be, ignoring the scope of my accomplishments. I only started going by Jamie in my freshman year of high school, and I thrived under this new ambiguous identity: that year, I became the social media manager of two clubs, was selected to present a TEDx Talk, and was awarded 'Freshman Writer of the Year' by my conservatory's director. When I introduced myself in person the next school year, I was amused by the look of surprise on many of my teachers' and classmates' faces. It was clear I was not who they expected me to be. What's in a name? According to AI algorithms, a name is the reflection of our identities and the face behind these words. I wonder if I had introduced myself as Jaehee Jung, or if I had turned on my camera to reveal my true identity, would I have had the opportunities I did? Maybe. My name is a gift I gave myself in search of belonging. Now I am searching to make this name my own. Not with recognition or achievements, but with the person I am behind the black square. And only I hold the power to decide when to turn it on or off. SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX
Washington Post
3 hours ago
- Washington Post
In a rocky economy, one word stands out: Temporary
Elizabeth Glidden knows it could be worse. Although she recently lost her job as a technical program officer at the U.S. Agency for International Development, she quickly found new work — a temporary position at the World Bank on the advice of a friend. Her job comes with a generous hourly rate but no benefits, including parental leave if she and her husband decide to expand their family. She's also paying more of each paycheck toward Social Security and Medicare tax because she's classified as self-employed.
