5 Possible Scenarios For Iran, Israel As US Joins War
The United States on Sunday targeted three nuclear sites in Iran, as it intervened in the ongoing conflict between the Islamic Republic and Israel and triggered fears of dangerous escalation of tensions across the Middle East.
President Donald Trump said the US carried out a " very successful attack" on the Iranian sites and warned Tehran of "far greater" consequences if it did not end its conflict with Israel.
While the future of the Iran-Israel conflict remains to be seen, here are the five possible scenarios that could play out:
Scenario 1: Iran may launch missile strikes on US bases in the region, in response to the strikes on its three nuclear facilities. Iranian state television has said that "every American citizen or military personnel in the region is now a target". Meanwhile, security has been stepped up across religious, cultural and diplomatic sites in Washington and New York as an "abundance of caution", according to the New York Police Department.
Scenario 2: Israel may sound a high alert and preemptively target the backbone of Iran's military power, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). According to foreign media, the Israeli military issued a statement, saying it has been decided "to shift all areas of the country from Partial and Limited Activity to Essential Activity", including "a prohibition on educational activities, gatherings, and workplaces, except for essential sectors".
Scenario 3: Iran may activate Hezbollah and proxies to strike Israel from Lebanon, Iraq and Syria. Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, Shiite militias in Iraq, and Hamas in Gaza form what Tehran calls the "Axis of Resistance", which it has built to project power, repel US and Israeli influence, and insulate itself from direct confrontation. These allied groups have, however, mainly remained relatively subdued during the conflict. Many are depleted, internally divided, and grappling with their own vulnerabilities.
Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Qassem recently pledged " all forms of support" to Iran in its fight against Israel and the US, saying Iran's nuclear program is peaceful and aims to serve its people, The Jerusalem Post reported.
Scenario 4: China and Russia - both countries having significant global influence - may call for restraint but quietly back Iran diplomatically. On Tuesday, China had accused Mr Trump of "pouring oil" on the Israel-Iran conflict. Days later, Chinese President Xi Jinping called on all parties, "especially Israel" to "cease hostilities", state media reported.
Likewise, Russia had warned the US against "military intervention" in the Israel-Iran war. The head of Russia's nuclear energy corporation warned on Thursday that an Israeli attack on Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant could lead to a "Chernobyl-style catastrophe".
Scenario 5: There may be a surge in global oil prices due to the attack on Iran, a major oil-producing nation. Iran may retaliate by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz - a strategic chokepoint through which up to 20 million barrels of oil pass everyday.
According to The Conversation, a lot of that oil can be diverted through alternative supply routes such as a large (6 mbd) Saudi East-West pipeline leading to the Red Sea. "There is also the UAE pipeline, which avoids the Strait of Hormuz and leads to the port of Fujairah, in the Gulf of Oman. Nevertheless, the increased risk and higher shipping costs would certainly result in much higher prices at the pump," it said.
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